Jump to content

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Recommended Posts

17 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Expect also a sharp downward gradient now via all supports CROSSBOARD- for a lengthy spell......

Upstick in any blips (milder)...

Will likely further decline...to a notable degree!!!!!

A picture paints a thousand words...

Stark contrast...and trending is steadfast...

#decline...

MT8_London_ens.png

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 9
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 4.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

Posted Images

Having seen the 'terrible' ECM from this morning, its still a pretty outstanding chart, in 98% of occasions that would be an unreal run, after all we still see large -10C chunks across the country. The south still gets smashed as pressure is still low enough and the depth of cold good enough. 

The 12z GFS however is pretty outlandish, basically its a reduex of 87 in terms of the synoptics of the pattern. Not as cold but very similar pattern.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

So what to expect from the ECM tonight? It normally follows one of the clusters from the previous run. Here's what it gave us (T204)

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018021900_204.

This morning's op is cluster 3

If it follows cluster 2 or 4, it has moved towards the GFS.

If it follows cluster 1, we get a very cold high pressure with the cold pool missing (gulp!)

Good luck everyone!

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

So what to expect from the ECM tonight? It normally follows one of the clusters from the previous run. Here's what it gave us (T204)

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018021900_204.

This morning's op is cluster 3

If it follows cluster 2 or 4, it has moved towards the GFS.

If it follows cluster 1, we get a very cold high pressure with the cold pool missing (gulp!)

Good luck everyone!

That’s ok then - it’s not like cluster 1 is the largest ........

tighten those seat belts !!

Edited by bluearmy
  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Micro dynamics-i will scrutinise,.

12zecm..

For both point of purpose..and that fact this is no normal in-shot of cold incursion-and northern hemisphercaly, quite crazy..

12z rolling!!!

If ecm has a more robust high at 72 hours and is not as flat to the north west then it should be a good run!!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's a cropped version of the 12z GEFS for London. These are the coldest ensembles I've ever seen for London, and that's going back to the late 90s. Sadly I didn't know about ensembles in 1997, as I suspect that was the last time we saw such cold values.

 

temps.gif

  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites

There’s been a fair few ‘crucial’ runs chucked about this winter but this ECM run I think it is crucial for it to climb on aboard with every other model we’d be good to go I’d say. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

I haven’t been a member on here to long I’ve never seen that  very cold South East England..:cold::cold::cold:

The op is quite a warm outlier after the 1st. Many of the runs keep the cold going much longer. The op has most likely overblown that low and milder air at T200

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

now look at that clustering at day 10/11/12 - Thats a good grouping indicating the iberian low slides east...

Yes and its the only cluster there. The other members all go their own way really, but that is quite a tight group staying at -10.

Link to post
Share on other sites

The coldest GFS ensemble ( For east kent ) is -18.8c @T183 & 186... ( this is the 180 chart )

Thats only 1c less than 12 1987....

the max that day was -7c in the SE

FBDD62CA-5AFC-4555-B50B-843555CE8285.thumb.png.268c248f2e0f393af446ba368de6308f.png

 

Edited by Steve Murr
  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

The coldest GFS ensemble ( For east kent ) is -18.8c @T183 & 186... ( this is the 180 chart )

Thats only 1c less than 1987....

FBDD62CA-5AFC-4555-B50B-843555CE8285.thumb.png.268c248f2e0f393af446ba368de6308f.png

 

How can you tell that?

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Retron said:

Here's a cropped version of the 12z GEFS for London. These are the coldest ensembles I've ever seen for London, and that's going back to the late 90s. Sadly I didn't know about ensembles in 1997, as I suspect that was the last time we saw such cold values.

 

temps.gif

Yes I remember your ensemble watch back in the day Darren except then you used to only measure the number of ensembles hitting a paltry -10!

A bit tame for this cold spell!  :D

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...