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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Whilst northern Europe goes into an extended winter parts of southern Europe could become quite warm during next week

      gem-1-240.thumb.png.036c4f043177cd64c9706aec7d740bc1.pnggem-9-240.thumb.png.17b99c964278d860b18add8a91945b8f.png

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    Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

    I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

    Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    23 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

    Channel low at T222 which would bring heavy snow to southern parts of the UK

    image.png

    Its a shame these chats are not 3 weeks earlier. Almost 1947 like.

     C

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    Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
    Just now, carinthian said:

    Its a shame these chats are not 3 weeks earlier. Almost 1947 like.

     C

    In that winter there were a few epic snow events in mid to late February. In fact you will find a lot of significant snowfalls over the years have occured in February or March, rather than in December or January.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
    18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Getting to the stage where if it might, it will - don’t joke !

    You sound pretty nervous Blue?  Are you still of the view this could all go t*ts up or is it more a case that there will always be part of a run somewhere given the UK's location that makes things dicey for us?!

    Or more of a direct question.  Are you genuinely concerned about the pattern imploding on us or are you just highlighting some minor niggles that may give us only a brilliant cold spell rather than a historic cold spell (for the time of year)?

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    Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East

    Think @bluearmy is just being real here ! And as a clearly experienced poster has seen things go awry and seen ones verify ! Been bitten before perhaps , let’s hope he’s bitten again , by frostbite this time ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    216-290UK.GIF?19-12 222-290UK.GIF?19-12

    As much as I am suspicious of the way GFS handles the Iberian LP development, those are wind chill maps worth saving if you like that sort of thing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    9 hours ago, carinthian said:

    Morning all, certainly the GFS is the best  run for a quicker route to much colder weather. Both ECM and UKMO have milder uppers (850mb level) over Western Europe and The British Isles by this coming Sunday with the very cold advection sinking ever so slowly SW. Anyway we have been issued with  severe cold warning for Sunday morning, temp -22c.  Maybe the human input on forecast charts may become more prominent this week as we continue to see up grade and downgades on the intensity of cold or not. However, I do not like the switch from negative uppers shown widely this Saturday to positive on Sunday ( RE UKMO/ECM ) hopefully a correction to follow.

    C

    UW144-7.gif

    Evening, think a bit of a up grade from latest UKMO run .Has colder air advection through the lower layers into SE Britain by next Sunday. GFS continues on its merry way towards a noticeable cold wave into much of the British Isles by this time next week with snow risk increasing.

    C

    UW144-7.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
    2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    GEFS mean @ 72 & 96-

    If we are here tomorrow @48 & 72 with identical charts then were all but home & dry...

    Still another 24-36 hours of nerves - so maybe wait for the weds 00z ( 36 & 60 charts ) to confirm - we can then raise the excitement levels by saying when not IF...

    4BC37462-4C7D-4144-99E0-DFA63C966B27.thumb.png.cff611fb914b729a0d1114265b789c56.png095CD95A-36E9-4223-B40B-163039A45A5C.thumb.png.297d46025e79f9b78868c6e9c99ce842.png

    S

    When not if for the Easterly, or when not if for the deep cold (sub -12s & lower)? Assume the former?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
    28 minutes ago, K9 said:

    How far west realistically can we expect to see the 'cold pool' of low 850's go with the current outputs?..I know this 'potential' cold spell is still a fair few days away and things are constantly subject to change, just fancied picking your brains and hearing your thoughts ?

    I am no expert but we have already seen some runs get the -13 / -14 air over to the West coast of Ireland.

    There is no reason why us here in Yorkshire couldn't see a bit of -16 action under the perfect alignment of the coldest air.

    I won't be greedy though I will be happy with what most of the runs from this afternoon show at around -13!  :drunk-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    GFS has unprecedented in ‘christmas pudding’ 500 dam air reaches east Kent, there’s been several incidences of this in 20th century but nothing so far in the 21st century. Absoloutely monsterous and historic.

    567E24E5-52C1-4E8A-9412-3A8EB2E30FD1.thumb.png.ef59106aacd6dbd3205a3230832295e2.png

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    2 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

    When not if for the Easterly, or when not if for the deep cold (sub -12s & lower)? Assume the former?

    The easterly is coming - its to confirm the upper air cold pool is following ( those timelines )

    The movement in our direction of upper air cold pool is at 120-144 so weds overnight will be 84 & 108 - by the confidence above 80% ish - currently 50/60% to the good!

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    GFS has unprecedented in ‘christmas pudding’ 500 dam air reaches east Kent, there’s been several incidences of this in 20th century but nothing so far in the 21st century. Absoloutely monsterous and historic.

    567E24E5-52C1-4E8A-9412-3A8EB2E30FD1.thumb.png.ef59106aacd6dbd3205a3230832295e2.png

    Yes 1987 was approx 492 in Dover...

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Amazing.

    When you flag up a feature @iberian feature...and get brushed aside.

    Yet somebody else flags it'later on' and some jump onto it!!

    Was/is always going to be friend or foe..

    And needs eyeing via-ecm 12z this evening!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    15 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

    In that winter there were a few epic snow events in mid to late February. In fact you will find a lot of significant snowfalls over the years have occured in February or March, rather than in December or January.

    They certainly were. Think our John Holmes remembers that one quite well.. The cold synoptics became evident by the first week of February that year, so had a bit of a head start to our present up and coming cold spell .

     C

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    7 hours ago, tight isobar said:

    Very early into the run...but im flagging it!!!

    Heres the immediate focus...

     

    gfs-0-42 (1).png

    Screenshot_2018-02-19-09-38-36.png

    Here is the synoptic for quick/deep-or moderated.......

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Just comparing mean V mean 06 v 12z - the 12z has substantially colder air to the east ( around -4c ) at 150/156

    87E99036-1630-410C-B105-44FF74F2DC70.thumb.png.9c5c5a4961d3d05f4f84543c0f26b0ed.png3ABAC682-0D23-4846-9935-2166A6D23806.thumb.png.8a15d1ec3b78c4301411c321fdc8f953.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Upton Upon Severn
  • Location: Upton Upon Severn

    I know we should take precipitation with a pinch of salt but I am confused.

    We are seeing a cm or 2 of predicted on these charts and for the spine of Britain from the midlands south nothing at all in terms of precipitation.

    I am not sure I remember the last decent easterly very well (1991??)  but will this setup really give the whole country snow or are we in the south and west of the country going to have to rely on a Low pressure hitting the block as per Dec 2017 before we get to see anything but cold from this predicted outbreak? This seems to be a more Easterly affair to me.

    Thanks in advance

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
    Just now, Steve Murr said:

    Just comparing mean V mean 06 v 12z - the 12z has substantially colder air to the east ( around -4c ) at 150/156

    87E99036-1630-410C-B105-44FF74F2DC70.thumb.png.9c5c5a4961d3d05f4f84543c0f26b0ed.png3ABAC682-0D23-4846-9935-2166A6D23806.thumb.png.8a15d1ec3b78c4301411c321fdc8f953.png

     

    I have feeling it is going to get colder quicker than people think, meto already flagging up possible snow flurries Friday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
    24 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    GEFS mean @ 72 & 96-

    If we are here tomorrow @48 & 72 with identical charts then were all but home & dry...

    Still another 24-36 hours of nerves - so maybe wait for the weds 00z ( 36 & 60 charts ) to confirm - we can then raise the excitement levels by saying when not IF...

    4BC37462-4C7D-4144-99E0-DFA63C966B27.thumb.png.cff611fb914b729a0d1114265b789c56.png095CD95A-36E9-4223-B40B-163039A45A5C.thumb.png.297d46025e79f9b78868c6e9c99ce842.png

    S

    And just as you say that...which excites me...the ecm is on its way and it frightens me...come on ECM!!!! BIG EFFORT!

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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