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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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29 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Actually I think the pattern is set. No doubt about that. We are going to be in an easterly air flow, and its going to get damned cold. The twitchy bit now.... and it is going to be a very twitchy few days, is resolving the microscale detail. In the end I don't think we have a useful template to follow in this regard: with a standard westerly flow we know from experience that ECM can be overly amplified... that GFS has a tendency to overmodel low pressure intensity... etc.

But for an easterly flow in the context of a major SSW? I don't think a roadmap exists. The fact that GEM is doing rather well at present since the SSW began is probably a fair sign that all models are going to be equally challenged by what is transpiring.

Which isn't really any help at all. Experience may not count for very much... and if we are honest any "gut" instinct will simply be based on hope.

So - truly twitchy times ahead. We could end up cold and buried.... or just cold. And to me this will be the hardest period of the whole event: I felt pretty confident 10 days or more ago as to the direction of travel. But now that the finishing tape is in sight I'm suddenly nervous.

Friday/Saturday cant come quick enough - by then the start of the main event will/should be within 72 hours and we can be better prepared for what is to come.

 

 

If in doubt, i'd have thought that sticking with the inherent/perceived bias of any particular model is the best option?  At the end of the day, they start with a data set @t=0 and run with it, so if there is a bias to the algorithms they'll be there in a westerly or easterly regime?  I'd assume that the only novel issue in these circumstances would be the remote possibility of an individual run being unable to coherently process the starting data set?  That said - @pages below may have a point that the TPV modelling may be struggling from the very start?

 

25 minutes ago, pages said:

............"I have been noticing on a lot of runs all models since the SSW we are seeing change within the 48hr timeframe of vortex being less strong and slight movement West run on run look at how differences  very early lead to the 108hr compared to 114hr last run the Low to West of Iceland is slightly further west and tilt is much more neutral.".....................

 

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Dear UK Cold lovers

UKMO cold pool priming in the progrez

I will greet you for morning commute on Monday, with love Sibby AKA Siberia :air_kiss:

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Ps, I send Greenland cousin laterz

Edited by karlos1983
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Best model output day in years, every model is top notch - getting really excited now, the deep cold is now seemingly unavoidable for us SE folk we’re on the edge of our seats right now.

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192 chart is truly strange, don't think I've ever seen 2 areas of high pressure like that. Intriguing if nothing else to see how this ends up, seems the GFS favours the eastern side of the heights linking up with heights from the south 

IMG_0301.PNG

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This is setting up for a terrible ec op - can smell it !

anyway - the inconsistency of the models continues (gfs apart). Ukmo similar to ec yesterday at day 6 to our east but not to our west. Note head scratching !

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2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

192 chart is truly strange, don't think I've ever seen 2 areas of high pressure like that. Intriguing if nothing else to see how this ends up, seems the GFS favours the eastern side of the heights linking up with heights from the south 

IMG_0301.PNG

You would have to think there would be large slow moving snow showers almost anywhere with persistent snow in coastal areas. 

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The ECMWF still failing to manipulate the GFS into agreeing with its outlook ?. The GFS continues to model the blocking High Pressure system further North than the ECMWF and has it better orientated allowing a more unstable, snowy, Easterly to spill through the U.K.

An example from both the 00Z ECMWF and 12Z GFS at 168 hours (next Monday):

6A5B2A97-54B7-481F-9F86-303A509B5F18.thumb.png.1b03975d13fb3c72f8a0719852bcb281.png

3302BC00-F62C-4782-9765-4732C2C20658.thumb.png.e088f6784939bd7415b96e47ea9041a6.png

It’s a shame the ECMWF is being a little too GFS-proof at the moment (if it’s bitter, wintry Easterlies you’re after). But perhaps the GFS may be able to put the ECMWF under a snowy spell this evening :spiteful: 

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

This is setting up for a terrible ec op - can smell it !

anyway - the inconsistency of the models continues (gfs apart). Ukmo similar to ec yesterday at day 6 to our east but not to our west. Note head scratching !

EC op why?

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3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

GFS - As you were, fantastic
UKMO - A slight improvement on the 00z, cold reaching us a day later maybe
ICON - Superb and much better then this morning, 12 hours behind GFS with the cold
GEM - Brutally cold- the quickest of them all!
ARPEGE - A bit slower but looks fine I think

Over to you ECM....

I think the Icon outcome would be the best for everybody.

 look at T-180 iconnh-0-180.png?19-12

iconnh-1-180.png

The high can't go anywhere; the low to West of Greenland is trying to move East but can't, stopping our block getting to Greenland reducing risk of attack from south.

The  shortwave over Russia stopping our block merging with high over south Asia as seen on a few runs and just keep funnelling sub -20 uppers around the block.

and at same time there is small amount of energy being transferred into the Italian Low which is trying to move North East tightening the flow.

This is best chart I have seen that gives both very cold/snow plus also is going to be long spell.

seeing the Ikon was most consistent originally forecasting Easterly I hoping it has nailed this..

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In gfs lo rss don’t worry about that deep low to the south I would suspect that when it gets to closer in time it will be lots of smaller lows going along the Chanel as an much weaker feature. All in all no sign for this ending v quickly and that the breakdown will always be in lo ress 

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Yes we don’t want the Greenie/Iceland high merging with the one further East into Asia, as per the GFS, as its cuts off the Easterly cold supply chain into Europe! Cold over us receives no reinforcements  and gradually mixes out.

Need the highs to remain separate as per the ICON.

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