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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

    Staggering difference on the GEM at just 132 hours compared to the 0Z.

    gemfr-1-132.png?12gemfr-1-132.png?00

    Gone tripping I think:pardon:

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    Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

    I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

    Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)

    UKMO 144hrs:

    UW144-21.GIF?19-17

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Fear not!!!

    Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

    Surely that will make it!

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Im still a bit concerned about the UKMO/ECM keeping the pressure a little higher to our south, the GFS cuts off the high much earlier than the other 'big 2'

     

    Fabulous viewing though it must be said

    Edited by Weathizard
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    Posted
  • Location: Hatfield Peverel near Chelmsford Essex
  • Location: Hatfield Peverel near Chelmsford Essex

    So the cold now is expected to reach us a day earlier essentially?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    ICON, GEM, GFS, UKMO 144 comparison. Very good consistency there! Just UKMO could do with being further North.

    iconnh-0-144.png?19-12gemnh-0-144.png?12gfsnh-0-144.png?12UN144-21.GIF?19-17

    Also worth noting there has barely been any change in any of today's GFS runs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)

    GFS at 144hrs has -12c 850's flooding into southern England:

    gfsnh-1-144.png?12

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Gem-gfs..

    Ramping up the cold incursion.

    All 12z eye watering....

    Lets see the ecm align now 12z..

    "Peachy" !!!

    ?

    gem-1-198.png

    gfs-1-144.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)

    GFS at 156hrs:

    gfsnh-0-156.png?12

     

    GFS 850s at 162hrs. Bitter cold crossing the channel:

    gfsnh-1-162.png?12

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Pretty insane consistency from the GFS it must be said... the kind of consistency we get when it's mild SW dross but the opposite way around, bizzare!

    IMG_0299.PNG

    IMG_0300.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    gfs-0-144.png?12 UW144-21.GIF?19-17

    GFS and UKMO side by side.

    Latter still a bit slower due to less LP development meaning less squeeze on the isobars. Could mean the cold is deeper on arrival though, provided the high retains the right alignment.

    ECM1-168.GIF?19-12 UW144-21.GIF?19-17

    Comparing now with ECM albeit that model for 12 hours later, some similarities yes but note more resistance by lower heights over Greenland - retrogression can't get going as fast - and no weird southward kink and broad, slack region combo in to the flow out east. Both suggesting to me at least that UKMO would take the deep cold further west and at least a little more N than what ECM produced.

     

    So far, adjustments this evening fit nicely with both the Met Office update and what Carinthian reported from his way earlier.

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    Posted
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold , snow . Hot sunny
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire

    The North Sea snow machine :cold:

    IMG_1911.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Embedded shortwave troughs for the win.

    gfs-0-162.png?12gfs-2-162.png?12

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    Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham

    Perhaps the consistency is because there is an overwhelming and unstoppable pattern here 

    it seems inevitable that there will be deep cold from the east. Whether it's convective or not will be based on the location of the high pressure but we seem in a good position atm 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    1 minute ago, kev238 said:

    Perhaps the consistency is because there is an overwhelming and unstoppable pattern here 

    it seems inevitable that there will be deep cold from the east. Whether it's convective or not will be based on the location of the high pressure but we seem in a good position atm 

    There is no such thing as inevitable deep cold for the UK. 

    Anyone who has been here more than 1 winter knows that. :acute:

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Day 6 charts

    UKMO

    UW144-21.GIF?19-17

    Decent enough, the cold is a little further west than yesterdays ECM 12z for instance at this point so the deep cold should make it to the UK.

    GFS
    gfs-0-144.png?12

    The coldest air is already arriving across England, bullseye hit, severely cold by day 7 with winds between the east and north east bring frequent heavy snow showers.

    GEM

    gem-0-144.png?12

    As good as the GFS

    So slowly we are meeting somewhere between the progressive GFS runs of yesterday with the cold delayed by a day or so, and the ECM which was flattest yesterday which hopefully should result is a safer route to a spell of very cold and snowy weather.

    So far, so good I think this afternoon. :)

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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