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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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11 minutes ago, Danielvn said:

People are ignoring the elephant in the room because it suits their agenda. Only a fool would ignore the ECM aid it’s showing one thing and the others are showing another thing, yet the ECM is unwavering in its view of what the weather is going to do. But rampers gonna ramp I guess.

I completely agree with you, without the ECM I have little confidence that the other big models are likely to get the pattern nailed on. 

At the beginning of the SSW event, many of the models were playing with the idea of high moving NE across the UK, but as a whole the models generally flipped between cold & mild setup. I only feel once the ECM caught onto the pattern, that many of the other models were beginning to firm up on the pattern we are looking at. Given its such a complex setup we are looking at, the verification statistics and the exceptional vertical resolution of the ECM that it would be stupid to ignore personally.

The ECM has the largest capability of correctly modelling this pattern.

But as many of you have said, almost all the other big models have consistency forecast a very cold pattern for several days now with good cross agreement, so who knows. 

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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7 minutes ago, Danielvn said:

People are ignoring the elephant in the room because it suits their agenda. Only a fool would ignore the ECM aid it’s showing one thing and the others are showing another thing, yet the ECM is unwavering in its view of what the weather is going to do. But rampers gonna ramp I guess.

Not that it is likely to verify as it is a mild outlier in the short term but if it did the ECM op would suit me just fine.  IMO it is the best run for long term cold and an ongoing snow risk despite lowering the risk of snow and severe cold in the 7 day time frame.

The Atlantic is completely locked out on that run and the key has almost been thrown away!  The high is retrogressing and cold shots from the North / North East are almost guaranteed.  Yes you are then looking at Day 10 onwards for that particular scenario but all this talk about the ECM op being the end of the world for coldies and 'the elephant in the room' is ridiculous in my opinion.  What's more the GFS 6z has run with newer data and is nothing like the earlier ECM anyway (better for widespread cold and snow across the UK).

I think a blend of the ECM and GFS solutions is what we will get and that will be perfect for cold and snow over large swathes of the UK.  :cold:

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29 minutes ago, Danielvn said:

People are ignoring the elephant in the room because it suits their agenda. Only a fool would ignore the ECM aid it’s showing one thing and the others are showing another thing, yet the ECM is unwavering in its view of what the weather is going to do. But rampers gonna ramp I guess.

I will have to take you to task on this statement.

The GFS and other models are also unwavering at the moment too, so your point is mute. People are not ignoring the ECM and its evolution at all.

There have been numerous posts on here today to that effect.Please look at the charts people are posting backing up their opinions.

GEM ensemble

gens-0-1-216.png

GFS ensemble sits well with control 

gens-21-1-192.png

Diagramme GEFS

ECM not exactly the Elephant in the room ,more in its own ensembles

EDM1-216.GIF?19-12

image.thumb.png.9ef1d981f6d14b91fa3f1f31385d38f8.png

Of course the ECM could be correct .

 

 

Edited by winterof79
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17 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

 the ECM is not showing the best solution currently but whilst there is still some uncertainty, we have to look at the ensembles. the overwhelming conscensus is for an unprecedented cold snowy scenario for the UK.

I think we need to be realistic. Cold? yes, snowy? maybe. Unprecedented...I don't think so.

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14 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

I will have to take you to task on this statement.

The GFS and other models are also unwavering at the moment too, so your point is mute. People are not ignoring the ECM and its evolution at all.

There have been numerous posts on here today to that effect.Please look at the charts people are posting backing up their opinions.

GEM ensemble

gens-0-1-216.png

GFS ensemble sits well with control 

gens-21-1-192.png

Diagramme GEFS

ECM not exactly the Elephant in the room ,more in its own ensembles

EDM1-216.GIF?19-12

image.thumb.png.9ef1d981f6d14b91fa3f1f31385d38f8.png

Of course the ECM could be correct .

 

 

What’s a mute point? I think you mean ‘moot’.

How many times before have we had cross model support apart from the ECM, only for the ECM to come out on top?

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So, assuming for a moment that the GFS 06Z verifies, how would it compare with past cold spells?

GFS 06Z T156

gfs-1-156.png?6

March 2013: GFS 06Z is ever so slightly slightly colder

archives-2013-3-11-12-1.png

Feb 2009: colder again

archives-2009-2-2-0-1.png

Feb 1991: just falls short but a close thing

archives-1991-2-7-0-1.png

Jan 1987: no, not close

archives-1987-1-12-12-1.png

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Tamara said:

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one:)

But, equally impartially and with intended objectivity (hopefully):

The situation at present is a highly unusual one and the risk of some astonishing late season wintry weather is much higher than usual, certainly than often seen in these cases where deep cold pool advection flirting with the UK graces the perimeters of more 'reliable' NWP

The repercussions of this SSW are going to be sustained. The clock starting ticking back in January and carried on through this month with extreme instability of the atmospheric profile with the tropics and extra tropics being subjected to opposing high amplitude states of angular momentum tendency.

gltend.sig.90day.gif

The impact on tropospheric global wind-flows (the Jetstream) has been significant, in addition to the detonation of some intense cold pooling over the polar field (relative to the modern day generally warmer arctic) : more especially across the Canadian arctic as multiple programmes of hot needles are probed into the polar stratosphere

The result of extreme tropical momentum and stratospheric implosion implies high impact weather events on a broad-scale. Some places are going to get bitterly cold and some weirdly warm. 

In this day and age fewer parts of a hemisphere can get cold with less to go around than used to be the case maybe. But this programme of events strongly favours the European sector to become bitterly cold from what looks to be an impressively large breakaway cold pool for the time of year from Siberia. While its true that the envelope of this cold has boundaries that shift in intra suite modelling, the focus of the BI being impacted in inclusion, is much higher than other situations where lesser broad-scale drivers have been in evidence

Ramping indeed requires a justification - I think this situation fits that criteria. Areas of land mass infrastructure most at risk aside from weather impacts, the synoptic blocking pattern and its associated reverse polarity from one side of the Northern Hemisphere to the other - is not something seen on an every day NWP menu:)

Great post.

And continues to 'highlight' that given the situ- some planners should be put in place here !!!

#impacts

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12 minutes ago, Danielvn said:

What’s a mute point? I think you mean ‘moot’.

How many times before have we had cross model support apart from the ECM, only for the ECM to come out on top?

Apologies for my spelling error.

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6 minutes ago, Tamara said:

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one:)

But, equally impartially and with intended objectivity (hopefully):

The situation at present is a highly unusual one and the risk of some astonishing late season wintry weather is much higher than usual, certainly than often seen in these cases where deep cold pool advection flirting with the UK graces the perimeters of more 'reliable' NWP

The repercussions of this SSW are going to be sustained. The clock starting ticking back in January and carried on through this month with extreme instability of the atmospheric profile with the tropics and extra tropics being subjected to opposing high amplitude states of angular momentum tendency.

gltend.sig.90day.gif

The impact on tropospheric global wind-flows (the Jetstream) has been significant, in addition to the detonation of some intense cold pooling over the polar field (relative to the modern day generally warmer arctic) : more especially across the Canadian arctic as multiple programmes of hot needles are probed into the polar stratosphere

The result of extreme tropical momentum and stratospheric implosion implies high impact weather events on a broad-scale. Some places are going to get bitterly cold and some weirdly warm. 

In this day and age fewer parts of a hemisphere can get cold with less to go around than used to be the case maybe. But this programme of events strongly favours the European sector to become bitterly cold from what looks to be an impressively large breakaway cold pool for the time of year from Siberia. While its true that the envelope of this cold has boundaries that shift in intra suite modelling, the focus of the BI being impacted in inclusion, is much higher than other situations where lesser broad-scale drivers have been in evidence

Ramping indeed requires a justification - I think this situation fits that criteria. Areas of land mass infrastructure most at risk aside from weather impacts, the synoptic blocking pattern and its associated reverse polarity from one side of the Northern Hemisphere to the other - is not something seen on an every day NWP menu:)

And certainly now the signs are stronger, but how many times have we been in this situation only for a cold spell to get watered down or just flat out blow away?

i want a few feet of snow, but I’ve been lurking on here long enough to know that it doesn’t always happen the way models say it will. Sometimes one model can be the only one that sees the truth, sometimes it can be just wrong, we’ll find out.

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it is interesting to read all of the comments on ECM and how if it shows something different it must be followed. I have to admit I am totally confused by this. Correct me if I am wrong but the ecm has flipped more than any other model going into this scenario starting at the weekend in Ernest. if there was a chance of this being delayed or reduced time scale, I very much doubt the super computers at Exeter would have released this statement, otherwise they would be left with egg on their faces, like the bbq summer as an example despite that being a long range forecast.....

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15 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

So, assuming for a moment that the GFS 06Z verifies, how would it compare with past cold spells?

GFS 06Z T156

gfs-1-156.png?6

March 2013: GFS 06Z is ever so slightly slightly colder

archives-2013-3-11-12-1.png

Feb 2009: colder again

archives-2009-2-2-0-1.png

Feb 1991: just falls short but a close thing

archives-1991-2-7-0-1.png

Jan 1987: no, not close

archives-1987-1-12-12-1.png

 

 

but the 06z wouldn't be quite as cold, even if the pattern verified - the charts from a week away are always moderated a bit 

 

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1 minute ago, Jimmyh said:

it is interesting to read all of the comments on ECM and how if it shows something different it must be followed. I have to admit I am totally confused by this. Correct me if I am wrong but the ecm has flipped more than any other model going into this scenario starting at the weekend in Ernest. if there was a chance of this being delayed or reduced time scale, I very much doubt the super computers at Exeter would have released this statement, otherwise they would be left with egg on their faces, like the bbq summer as an example despite that being a long range forecast.....

I'm correcting you ............

none of the models have covered themselves in glory - hence the gem currently verifying slightly ahead of ecm

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

but the 06z wouldn't be quite as cold, even if the pattern verified - the charts from a week away are always moderated a bit 

 

Do they, it does make one question how extreme weather events have ever happened in this country.

Edited by frosty ground
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4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Do they, it does make one question how extreme weather events have ever happened in this country.

A fair point and there will always be the exception to prove the rule, but what BA states is correct and is a perfectly natural consequence of increasing error with respect to time - i.e how the models will progressively leave the norm in the further reaches of their output.  Think about how many GFS dart board lows we see toned down by T0, phantom easterlies (various models) that never materialise, etc.  However "not quite as cold" would still be perfectly sufficient for what most are chasing on here and the expected moderation of temps may go hand in hand with increased chance of precipitation. :) 

 

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