Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 4.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Looking at them means above and they are stunning. It's either gonna be a big win if the GFS gets this right or one big fail . Let's hope it's the winner ?

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    GEM London ens mean looking cold throughout with a peak of around -8

    graphe_ens3_php.thumb.gif.b36becc4211af8b2b5e8f1063709dd9f.gif

     

    Edited by Summer Sun
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    The eps clusters reveal that the op/cntrl route is about as likely as a middle ground blended solution/gem op

    i don’t believe the gfs has this right and I don’t believe the ecm has either 

    the second warming is going to complicate things further 

    could be wed before we really get to grips with this but I am fairly sure that 27/28 is the action slot if we are indeed to see any real widespread snowy action - tbh, those dates have stood out for a while. 

    Which is what GEFS mean shows on the 06z

    gens-21-1-192.png

    Not the ECM though yet

    EDM1-192.GIF?19-12

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    47 minutes ago, Wizzobell said:

    Hi all, something of a long standing lurker who loves the learning and the knowledge demonstrated on this site but I must confess to being a little confused at the moment.

    The GFS is consistently showing remarkable runs yet the ECM 0z has backed away slightly with the hp a little further south. However, the GFS 6z is stellar once again. Here's the rub; I get the impression from recent posts that most people are starting to feel v confident in a likely cold/ v cold spell yet my understanding is that the ECM is generally more accurate and the GFS 6z is one of the more low resolution outputs. Does this not suggest that we should be more wary of the ECM trend?

    Enlightenment required please.

    Hi Wizzobell, I think you are absolutely right to flag this up. The trouble with the GFS for me (highlighted last week when it was opposing the easterly) is that it never seems to move gradually to new solutions, but instead it holds stubbornly to the same solution run after run and then flips all of a sudden to something different. 

    If we compare the UKMO, ECM op and ECM mean at T144 ...

    UW144-21.GIF?19-06  ECM1-144.GIF?19-12  EDM1-144.GIF?19-12

    ... you have to nitpick to find a difference. The ECM mean and the UKMO are particularly close.

    However the GFS is now clearly different:

    gfs-0-138.png?6  gens-21-1-138.png

    The cold pool is about 400 miles further west, more is made of the low to the east,  and it is faster at moving heights north.

    When it's a direct comparison of ECM vs GFS at T144, then I'd probably go for a 60% ECM / 40% GFS blend. But an ECM mean/UKMO combo is worth more weighting that that. I'm thinking a 70% chance of a GFS correction towards the euros on the 12Z runs. 

    Of course, the ECM mean ends up very cold all the same, and as extremes are almost always watered down on mean runs, I'd guess a median of -10C to -13C.

    EDM0-192.GIF?19-12

    But I still can't help thinking there's more disruption in the flow ahead anyway. Those seeking widespread snow away from the east and south coasts should be hoping for the trough to the SW to be a bit faster into Iberia, combining with the cold pool from a position directly to its south, causing the two together to disrupt north and bingo! The GFS control run is pretty good on this:

    gens-0-1-228.png

    Edited by Man With Beard
    • Like 6
    • Thanks 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    GEM London ens mean looking cold throughout with a peak of around -8

    graphe_ens3_php.thumb.gif.b36becc4211af8b2b5e8f1063709dd9f.gif

     

    Its a 15 : 5 split for either Cold or not Cold.

    The average takes into account 5 runs that won't happen if we go down a cold path, and on the other side of the coin it takes into account 15 colder runs that won't happen if the 5 milder runs are right.

    in this situation the average is not really a story much (IMHO)

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Short ens for london. looking impressive!!

    Diagramme GEFS

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East

    Hi @carinthian firstly I immensely enjoy your posts and pictures ! 

    Now for a novicey question , your senior forecasters think the ecm may be on the wrong track ? Im intruiged to know the ‘why’  ( curious mind) 

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Short ens for london. looking impressive!!

    Diagramme GEFS

    Almost unanimous support on the GEFS ensembles for sub -10c 850's to hit by the 25th. A significant proportion of those approach -15c at the same timeframe. Quite incredible.

    Edited by danm
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Another decent move this morning- The 06z Aperge moves more to the GFS amplified solution early doors-

    With this being a unique evolution the historic form book is a little 'thrown out the window' - GFS seemingly feeling the love & consistency the most with UKMO / JMA not far behind - ECM been a bit volatile...

    Great model viewing ATM-

    S

    It has to be said though, it is worrying that the ECM has produced the last two runs and if it verifies it will be a massive let down for all of us. Looking at every run of every model waiting for the deep cold to arrive from the east only to give us a fleeting visit and then gets followed by a not particularly cold northerly. 

    We need to see the ECM come on board asap.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    GFS 06z ens shows it getting below -10 for London for a time early March sees a slow rise up getting to between -5 and -3

    graphe_ens3_xcu3.thumb.gif.3abde0dcc358ed39ed1da2724623200b.gif

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    6 minutes ago, karyo said:

    It has to be said though, it is worrying that the ECM has produced the last two runs and if it verifies it will be a massive let down for all of us. Looking at every run of every model waiting for the deep cold to arrive from the east only to give us a fleeting visit and then gets followed by a not particularly cold northerly. 

    We need to see the ECM come on board asap.

    yes - its obviously in the mix

    & what makes it worse is the blocking / synoptics on the ECM is equally as superb from a backdrop perspective - but just shows the fine lines we operate in...

    S

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    18 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

     

    . Those seeking widespread snow away from the east and south coasts should be hoping for the trough to the SW to be a bit faster into Iberia, combining with the cold pool from a position directly to its south, causing the two together to disrupt north and bingo! 

     

    Sorry MWB but I think that’s too high a risk strategy with the overall background pattern. This isn’t a ‘grab it while you can’ scenario with a two day blast of frigid uppers hoping that we get some decent snowfall followed by a quick thaw and spring.  This could be a sustained period of proper cold with widespread snowcover if it plays out in our favour. Engaging the Iberian trough and potentially raising heights to our se  would be huge risk of a quick route to a west based neg NAO and a less cold outlook for the uk. 

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Sorry MWB but I think that’s too high a risk strategy with the overall background pattern. This isn’t a ‘grab it while you can’ scenario with a two day blast of frigid uppers hoping that we get some decent snowfall followed by a quick thaw and spring.  This could be a sustained period of proper cold with widespread snowcover if it plays out in our favour. Engaging the Iberian trough and potentially raising heights to our se  would be huge risk of a quick route to a west based neg NAO and a less cold outlook for the uk. 

    It definitely is a high risk strategy!! I have Feb 1991 on the brain.... But one could argue that pinning hopes beyond D10 is an even higher risk strategy. I look at the T300 mean charts and although they still look potentially very cold, I don't think they look as "nailed on" for cold as the ensemble charts we were debating 7 days ago - ECM is slacker around the UK than I would like, and GEFS could even lose the north/easterly aspect altogether. 

    ec-ens_nat_mslstd_mslmean_hres-msl_20180  gens-21-1-300.png

    ECM T300 850s mean is impressive though:

    ec-ens_millikort_mslpmean_t850mean_t850s

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: North Wales Riviera
  • Location: North Wales Riviera
    1 hour ago, Wizzobell said:

    Hi all, something of a long standing lurker who loves the learning and the knowledge demonstrated on this site but I must confess to being a little confused at the moment.

    The GFS is consistently showing remarkable runs yet the ECM 0z has backed away slightly with the hp a little further south. However, the GFS 6z is stellar once again. Here's the rub; I get the impression from recent posts that most people are starting to feel v confident in a likely cold/ v cold spell yet my understanding is that the ECM is generally more accurate and the GFS 6z is one of the more low resolution outputs. Does this not suggest that we should be more wary of the ECM trend?

    Enlightenment required please.

    People are ignoring the elephant in the room because it suits their agenda. Only a fool would ignore the ECM aid it’s showing one thing and the others are showing another thing, yet the ECM is unwavering in its view of what the weather is going to do. But rampers gonna ramp I guess.

    Edited by Danielvn
    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
    4 minutes ago, Danielvn said:

    People are ignoring the elephant in the room because it suits their agenda. Only a fool would ignore the ECM aid it’s showing one thing and the others are showing another thing, yet the ECM is unwavering in its view of what the weather is going to do. But rampers gonna ramp I guess.

    Whilst the ECM does pose a concern, the consistency from the other models makes that concern far minor than it would normally be.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    3 minutes ago, Danielvn said:

    People are ignoring the elephant in the room because it suits their agenda. Only a fool would ignore the ECM aid it’s showing one thing and the others are showing another thing, yet the ECM is unwavering in its view of what the weather is going to do. But rampers gonna ramp I guess.

    Look at @carinthian's post immediately above yours, his sources are sceptical of the ECM output. So yes, agree that only a fool would outright ignore the output, but it seems that some experts are not convinced of it offering the correct solution.

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Derry, NW Ireland, 20 to 30m ASL
  • Location: Derry, NW Ireland, 20 to 30m ASL

    The ECM often hasn't been able to put two and two together this winter, it shouldn't be ignored but judging by its history these few months and the consistency from other models we shouldn't be throwing our toys out yet.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...