Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Deep Snow please]

Mild country-wide by Day 10.

[SLEETY]

Too far out to worry yet looks of options for later on,low pressure could stall because of the dense cold air bringing blizzards for many ,anything is possible.

 

[Frosty.]

The brilliant thing about the Gfs 6z is that nobody misses out on the freeze, we would all get snow and ice days, severe wind-chill and penetrating frosts..a very generous 6z before it goes teits up very briefly!!..ignoring the mild stuff..hope it goes away on the next run!!!!

Edited February 19, 2018 by Frosty.

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

Mild country-wide by Day 10.

Why do some on here get obsessed looking for the breakdown? It's day 10, it's not even worth the worry at this stage 

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Mild country-wide by Day 10.

Revert to the ens!!!

Upcoming-and later!!!

[Staffordshire]

Just now, Weathizard said:

Why do some on here get obsessed looking for the breakdown? It's day 10, it's not even worth the worry at this stage 

Isn't day 10 where we've been looking for the cold weather for most of the winter? 

[weirpig]

Will Gfs  brings a breakdown of sorts  with heavy snowfall for a few  then just as you thought that was it  country wide blizzards at 252z      lovely run

[radiohead]

It's not over yet....264.

[Wilxy]

Once that cold air gets here watch the breakdown get pushed back

[Great Plum]

I think that at 10 days out, the charts will change - see the 0z and 6z below for 240 hours

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Why do some on here get obsessed looking for the breakdown? It's day 10, it's not even worth the worry at this stage 

Well its gone by 264 hrs and back comes the cold lol

[karlos1983]

Reload anyone?

[Deep Snow please]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Why do some on here get obsessed looking for the breakdown? It's day 10, it's not even worth the worry at this stage 

Really? The cold air was showing roughly where we're expecting to realise at about Day 10 - and far before that on the more long range models - so it's worth keeping an eye on. It's the second GFS recently to show a breakdown around this time-frame, so it's worth making note. It's certainly not obsessing over looking for the breakdown, it's interpreting the models. 

 

As pointed above it looks more a blip than a breakdown anyway.

Edited February 19, 2018 by Deep Snow please

[frosty ground]

Stays cold up North, then the cold floods back in again.

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

Really? The cold air was showing roughly where we're expecting to realise at about Day 10 - and far before that on the more long range models - so it's worth keeping an eye on. It's the second GFS recently to show a breakdown around this time-frame, so it's worth making note. It's certainly not obsessing over looking for the breakdown, it's interpreting the models. 

There is no breakdown it's a brief 18-24 hour blip before the cold returns?

[Nick F]

Remember that deep cold already entrenched is hard to shift, so GFS in particular has a habit of trying to remove it too quickly, so would ignore that sudden mild incursion from the south, the lows moving into SW Europe and the 0C line more likely shunted further south

[Wizzobell]

Hi all, something of a long standing lurker who loves the learning and the knowledge demonstrated on this site but I must confess to being a little confused at the moment.

The GFS is consistently showing remarkable runs yet the ECM 0z has backed away slightly with the hp a little further south. However, the GFS 6z is stellar once again. Here's the rub; I get the impression from recent posts that most people are starting to feel v confident in a likely cold/ v cold spell yet my understanding is that the ECM is generally more accurate and the GFS 6z is one of the more low resolution outputs. Does this not suggest that we should be more wary of the ECM trend?

Enlightenment required please.

[Deep Snow please]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

There is no breakdown it's a brief 18-24 hour blip before the cold returns?

Yes, I edited my post once that became clear. Lacking the power of telepathy I couldn't comment on charts that hadn't come out at the point of my posting.

Edited February 19, 2018 by Deep Snow please

[winterof79]

Bit like Euro News.......No commentary required

 

 

[Geordiesnow]

Think the issue with the ECM was that it was showing upper air temps of around -8 at one point for this week but now because the easterly drift is less sigmificant then the uppers don't really get all that cold and we actually enter positive figures at one point so maybe instead of a winter chill, it's average temps and quite dull weather for the foreseeable.

What happens to the deep cold pool is far from certain but experience suggests when it gets delayed or its dragging it heels to arrive then worry... the fact it could end up too far south is a worry also but it can easily change again in the upcoming runs.

 

[bluearmy]

The eps clusters reveal that the op/cntrl route is about as likely as a middle ground blended solution/gem op

i don’t believe the gfs has this right and I don’t believe the ecm has either 

the second warming is going to complicate things further 

could be wed before we really get to grips with this but I am fairly sure that 27/28 is the action slot if we are indeed to see any real widespread snowy action - tbh, those dates have stood out for a while. 

[karlos1983]

Just now, bluearmy said:

The eps clusters reveal that the op/cntrl route is about as likely as a middle ground blended solution/gem op

i don’t believe the gfs has this right and I don’t believe the ecm has either 

the second warming is going to complicate things further 

could be wed before we really get to grips with this but I am fairly sure that 27/28 is the action slot if we are indeed to see any real widespread snowy action - tbh, those dates have stood out for a while. 

As long as its not the 29th 

Looking very cold on the ens from Sunday onward! 

Edited February 19, 2018 by karlos1983

[radiohead]

06Z GEFS mean has the cold arriving earlier than the 0Z.

[Weathizard]

Not often you see a mean like this..  also supporting the OP solidly

[radiohead]

Stunning T168 mean.