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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Too far out to worry yet looks of options for later on,low pressure could stall because of the dense cold air bringing blizzards for many ,anything is possible.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The brilliant thing about the Gfs 6z is that nobody misses out on the freeze, we would all get snow and ice days, severe wind-chill and penetrating frosts..a very generous 6z before it goes teits up very briefly!!..ignoring the mild stuff..hope it goes away on the next run!!:whistling:!!:D:):cold:

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

    Mild country-wide by Day 10.

    No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

    Why do some on here get obsessed looking for the breakdown? It's day 10, it's not even worth the worry at this stage 

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

    Mild country-wide by Day 10.

    No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

    Revert to the ens!!!

    Upcoming-and later!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds
    Just now, Weathizard said:

    Why do some on here get obsessed looking for the breakdown? It's day 10, it's not even worth the worry at this stage 

    Isn't day 10 where we've been looking for the cold weather for most of the winter? :cc_confused::rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Will Gfs  brings a breakdown of sorts  with heavy snowfall for a few  then just as you thought that was it  country wide blizzards at 252z      lovely run

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

    Why do some on here get obsessed looking for the breakdown? It's day 10, it's not even worth the worry at this stage 

    Well its gone by 264 hrs and back comes the cold lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Reload anyone?

    gfsnh-0-300.png?6

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
    3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Why do some on here get obsessed looking for the breakdown? It's day 10, it's not even worth the worry at this stage 

    Really? The cold air was showing roughly where we're expecting to realise at about Day 10 - and far before that on the more long range models - so it's worth keeping an eye on. It's the second GFS recently to show a breakdown around this time-frame, so it's worth making note. It's certainly not obsessing over looking for the breakdown, it's interpreting the models. 

     

    As pointed above it looks more a blip than a breakdown anyway.

    Edited by Deep Snow please
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  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

    Really? The cold air was showing roughly where we're expecting to realise at about Day 10 - and far before that on the more long range models - so it's worth keeping an eye on. It's the second GFS recently to show a breakdown around this time-frame, so it's worth making note. It's certainly not obsessing over looking for the breakdown, it's interpreting the models. 

    There is no breakdown it's a brief 18-24 hour blip before the cold returns?

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    Posted
  • Location: South Yorks
  • Location: South Yorks

    Hi all, something of a long standing lurker who loves the learning and the knowledge demonstrated on this site but I must confess to being a little confused at the moment.

    The GFS is consistently showing remarkable runs yet the ECM 0z has backed away slightly with the hp a little further south. However, the GFS 6z is stellar once again. Here's the rub; I get the impression from recent posts that most people are starting to feel v confident in a likely cold/ v cold spell yet my understanding is that the ECM is generally more accurate and the GFS 6z is one of the more low resolution outputs. Does this not suggest that we should be more wary of the ECM trend?

    Enlightenment required please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
    2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    There is no breakdown it's a brief 18-24 hour blip before the cold returns?

    Yes, I edited my post once that became clear. Lacking the power of telepathy I couldn't comment on charts that hadn't come out at the point of my posting.

    Edited by Deep Snow please
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Bit like Euro News.......No commentary required

    gfsnh-0-192.png?6

     

    gfsnh-0-240.png?6

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    Think the issue with the ECM was that it was showing upper air temps of around -8 at one point for this week but now because the easterly drift is less sigmificant then the uppers don't really get all that cold and we actually enter positive figures at one point so maybe instead of a winter chill, it's average temps and quite dull weather for the foreseeable.

    What happens to the deep cold pool is far from certain but experience suggests when it gets delayed or its dragging it heels to arrive then worry... the fact it could end up too far south is a worry also but it can easily change again in the upcoming runs.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    The eps clusters reveal that the op/cntrl route is about as likely as a middle ground blended solution/gem op

    i don’t believe the gfs has this right and I don’t believe the ecm has either 

    the second warming is going to complicate things further 

    could be wed before we really get to grips with this but I am fairly sure that 27/28 is the action slot if we are indeed to see any real widespread snowy action - tbh, those dates have stood out for a while. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    Just now, bluearmy said:

    The eps clusters reveal that the op/cntrl route is about as likely as a middle ground blended solution/gem op

    i don’t believe the gfs has this right and I don’t believe the ecm has either 

    the second warming is going to complicate things further 

    could be wed before we really get to grips with this but I am fairly sure that 27/28 is the action slot if we are indeed to see any real widespread snowy action - tbh, those dates have stood out for a while. 

    As long as its not the 29th :ninja:

    Looking very cold on the ens from Sunday onward! 

    Latest 15 days ensemble forecast temperature for London

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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