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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Very early into the run...but im flagging it!!!

    Heres the immediate focus...

     

    gfs-0-42 (1).png

    Screenshot_2018-02-19-09-38-36.png

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    Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

    I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

    Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    I think the holy grail of cold pool direct hit (with likely snowy consequences) is driving the atmosphere in here 

    To be fair, it's hard not to chase the holy grail given the background signals and sypnotics on offer and given we have actually consistently seen 'holy grail' like charts over the last couple of days can make the ECM with high pressure mostly in charge look mildly underwhelming.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Fabulous Ecm 00z ens mean for next week, especially further south with deep cold being exacerbated by the Easterly winds..then towards the end, heights get sucked NW (retrogression) and the North then joins in with a reload from the N / NE..much like the earlier op!:cold::)

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    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Icon looks good at 120 with the bitter cold waiting in the wings ,and better than ecm at same timeframe

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    Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

    No matter how pointless the exercise is, I do like to try and find correlations between current charts and historical charts.  It's just possible that we might be able to judge what the conditions might be like if the Synoptics are similar.  Take these charts from March 15th 1979, which brought a blizzard to northern UK:

    image.thumb.png.2aba8f15b8e96c183e1b664153cab00c.png   image.thumb.png.06c3e9992e6ae3a6c776d2c0e3c2d3ed.png

    Compare these to the GFS predictions for 1st March 2018:

    image.thumb.png.0af1a89b3ae7ddf6cf2ad461593288fa.png   image.thumb.png.f5296ecf774edeb1e04a809a28242691.png

    Although these charts are not exactly the same, they are similar enough to draw comparisons, I think?  The prospective cold conditions in the 2018 charts are definitely more extreme than the 1979 ones, so perhaps the weather we can expect might be more extreme as well?  Obviously the charts will change over the next 10 days but even a watered down version of today's GFS forecast could bring some extraordinary weather to some, especially so for the time of year.  We must continue to be patient for the time being but the reality might yet outdo all our expectations....

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Very consistent from the GFS, again nothing like the ECM. 0z and 6z compared

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    IMG_0268.PNG

     

    If anything the 6z looks marginally better

    Edited by Weathizard
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    Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
    4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Think this gfs run is going to amazingly wintry looking at it so far not going towards ECM at all

    Yeah sleety much better than the ECM and if anything the cold pool is slightly further north not south so no corrections to the ECM on this run,  doesn't mean it's right of course

    Screenshot_20180219-100306.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Could be some snow flurries for eastern areas on Friday, as the increasingly cold and dry easterly wind picks up moisture over the North Sea.

     

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    Edited by Nick F
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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Just look at that cold pool over Eastern Europe ,going to be some serious weather problems over there,and severely cold for late winter

    T

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Decent heights alignment..

    And note...the iberian feature...

    Holding but allowing a more open door to the impending flow...

    Another cracking run awaits.. gfs 6z..

    gfs-1-138.png

    gfs-0-132.png

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
    16 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    GFS still far better than the ecm at t96

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    ECM cutting of LP by Azores much more readily, allowing polar jet to straighten up a bit, applying more force on the blocking high which gets shunted SE a little. That small shift sends the deep cold on a longer and slower journey.

    This crucial difference being so soon in time explains the respective ensemble suites also leaning strongly toward the op runs. EPS seemingly less so than GFS though given several clusters differing from ECM.

    It also makes it anyone’s guess which is more likely to be correct!

     

    What the.. somehow the attachments from the post below have uploaded themselves to my post?!

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    IMG_0270.JPG

    Edited by Singularity
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Ooosh...

    In she comes...and gfs is clean-steady and evolutionary feasible....

    Cracking!!!

    gfs-1-150.png

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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