Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[carinthian]

Morning all, certainly the GFS is the best  run for a quicker route to much colder weather. Both ECM and UKMO have milder uppers (850mb level) over Western Europe and The British Isles by this coming Sunday with the very cold advection sinking ever so slowly SW. Anyway we have been issued with  severe cold warning for Sunday morning, temp -22c.  Maybe the human input on forecast charts may become more prominent this week as we continue to see up grade and downgades on the intensity of cold or not. However, I do not like the switch from negative uppers shown widely this Saturday to positive on Sunday ( RE UKMO/ECM ) hopefully a correction to follow.

C

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

4 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

The amount of people who ignored the warnings from @CreweCold and @The Eagle about the energy in the jets northern arm just because it was a possible more negative outcome is unbelievable.  Yes, it hadn’t happened yet, but it is now a real possibility! The blinkers on some here is unbelievable! 

If you live in SE England (despite the username I don't but many on here do) the outlook is as you were this morning.

Anybody North or West of that then this mornings runs are definitely drier with less instability.

No point in getting dramatic or stressing about it though as there will be a new set of runs out in a couple of hours!

The model rollercoaster continues!  

[frosty ground]

7 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

I was under the impression it was a lack of low pressure engaging with the base of the high through the med that is causing the delay and slippage south. 

Yes the jet needs to swing round the top of the high and pull back West underneath. The mantra that is to much energy in the northern arm of the jet is misleading and misses the point.

The cold is not backing west on the ECM as quick as the GFS because it lacks the jet pulling back west.

Edited February 19, 2018 by frosty ground

[SLEETY]

7 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

The amount of people who ignored the warnings from @CreweCold and @The Eagle about the energy in the jets northern arm just because it was a possible more negative outcome is unbelievable.  Yes, it hadn’t happened yet, but it is now a real possibility! The blinkers on some here is unbelievable! 

As you say it hasn’t happened yet,and the ECM has performed poorly this winter.

lets see where it sits in its ensembles,bet it’s at the top end again 

[nick sussex]

The GFS is a stunner this morning , upto day ten hard to find any fault and it manages to bring a second chunk of deep cold west .

The ECM has that second cold chunk but the Scandi trough is already sinking se so stops the advection west of that.

The UKMO is an upgrade compared to last night, with less worries about shortwave spoilers to the ne.

It’s always a balancing act here with getting a sufficient block and the cold getting across to the UK, and the block not being too strong and too far south ,a flabby end to the block with deep cold could end up with a shortwave drama.

The block looks strong and not flabby , the UK just needs a bit of luck to get the perfect alignment .

Both the ECM and GFS now converging on the omega block , I think we’re seeing the formers better strat input come to the fore as it’s the first to pick up on that feedback of the second strat warming.

[bluearmy]

The eps mean is headed the wrong way for next weeks cold pool. Two runs trending the wrong way and this morning’s accelerates away from what we need. 

The spreads/clusters are still  ok on the more northern route so nothing set in stone by any means. 

I hope the second warming isn’t going to destroy our chances which were clearly good following the initial SSW. of course we could be chasing another wintry nirvana for the following weekend if the eps are in the right ballpark !!

Edited February 19, 2018 by bluearmy

[tight isobar]

The problem via ecm is the iberian energys interact -and mass with the eastern euro (incomingcold) stall it...

Then help the climb on a southerly route!!!

If we take the gem- it has clearly modeled a kink in the isobars around southern france-  holding everything firm and allowing heights to gain further north!!-and keeping back from progress of the incoming arm of mass pooling (cold)...

Still  wide open- and the energy/amp mod- ecm could be massivly overplaying affairs in these regions!!!

We need to see how we are modeled -today- in and around iberia... for both prop- and allow of heights...   still all looking very good imo!!!

Edited February 19, 2018 by tight isobar

[pureasthedriven]

6 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

If you live in SE England (despite the username I don't but many on here do) the outlook is as you were this morning.

Anybody North or West of that then this mornings runs are definitely drier with less instability.

No point in getting dramatic or stressing about it though as there will be a new set of runs out in a couple of hours!

The model rollercoaster continues!  

I’d say a shift here too, looking at UKMET and ECM this morning. Definite 48 hour push back to the onset of the leak of the cold air and less instability. 

[blizzard81]

In a nutshell, if people are looking for an historic event, the gfs offers it on a plate. The ecm doesn't. It really is as simple as that this morning. We should be hoping the last two ecm ops are barking up the wrong tree. 

[mountain shadow]

19 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

The amount of people who ignored the warnings from @CreweCold and @The Eagle about the energy in the jets northern arm just because it was a possible more negative outcome is unbelievable.  Yes, it hadn’t happened yet, but it is now a real possibility! The blinkers on some here is unbelievable! 

Or, it could be some members always emphasise the negatives and are therefore bound to get it right  (yet to be determined) occasionally?

[SLEETY]

Ecm Op right at the top end of the pack in the reliable time frame,not a surprise really

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Or, it could be some members always emphasise the negatives and are therefore bound to get it right  (yet to be determined) occasionally?

Always the safe bet in nw Europe !!

[Frank Trough]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The eps mean is headed the wrong way for next weeks cold pool. Two runs trending the wrong way and this morning’s accelerates away from what we need. 

I hope the second warming isn’t going to destroy our chances which were clearly good following the initial SSW. of course we could be chasing another wintry nirvana for the following weekend if the eps are in the right ballpark !!

Spring nirvana by then

[pureasthedriven]

Just now, SLEETY said:

Ecm Op right at the top end of the pack in the reliable time frame,not a surprise really

As it was yesterday. Good news but I’m always anxious about new high-res trends...

[Team Jo]

I think that’s enough with the personal comments don’t you?

If you are concerned about a post or think someone is breaking forum guidelines then please report the post. As much as you think you’re trying to help, people going vigilante mod on here and ‘sticking up for/calling out’ posters actually causes us a whole lot of work and some of us have day jobs y’know? It’s going to be nuts in here again today I imagine.

also it’s not even 9am, everyone get a coffee and breathe. 

 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The eps mean is headed the wrong way for next weeks cold pool. Two runs trending the wrong way and this morning’s accelerates away from what we need. 

The spreads/clusters are still  ok on the more northern route so nothing set in stone by any means. 

I hope the second warming isn’t going to destroy our chances which were clearly good following the initial SSW. of course we could be chasing another wintry nirvana for the following weekend if the eps are in the right ballpark !!

That is the key.  It is not an all or nothing situation here.  The background signals should keep us in the game for cold and snow for a few weeks to come yet with the only caveat being we would prefer the cold sooner rather than later for obvious reasons!

[tight isobar]

To add- gfs ooz ens are good, and getting better..

With members certainly on the gain (cold).

6z will offer further insight- and and perhaps take things on a further slant down.

[nick sussex]

It really is a catch 22 sometimes .

The initial SSW brings the easterly and without the second strat warming you’d likely definitely get the initial deep cold into the UK but then you might end up with milder conditions following from the sw as the high sinks on its eastern flank .

The second warming means the high is surrounded by low heights as in the Omega block and the cold continues but then less chance of a direct hit of the deep cold but still more chances from the ne.

The ECM mean at T240 hrs is stunning if the early fun and games landed , it’s a very bizarre scenario where the Holy Grail of set ups is going to disappoint some in the shorter term.

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by nick sussex

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended has pushed the low further west this morning giving the high greater control over the UK

Dry and settled for all

[Banbury]

33 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Absolutely correct, but it is a real possibility now. That’s what people were replying with laughing emojis etc. it’s very disrespectful to the 2 I mentioned above, while in fact it was excellent chart reading!

The very cold is also a real possibility , lets not get too sensitive with this . Its all opinions

[Ayrshire weather]

Atlantic looks very blocked there with nice Easterly winds across the UK! ?

[Summer Sun]

ECM gets the cold in eventually but it doesn't match that of GFS in terms of just how low the 850's get

We can see with ECM that some slightly milder air is never far away from the west and north-west whilst GFS shifts it well away

Edited February 19, 2018 by Summer Sun

[MR EXTREMES]

13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has pushed the low further west this morning giving the high greater control over the UK

Dry and settled for all

Looks like a slider to me.

I can't believe there's even any talking down about this incoming cold.

There's cross model agreement and the outcome is by far what you would expect from a major atmospheric changes.

Seriously no reason to throw any toys out the worst that could happen is the Siberian air goes to our south.

This still keeps us in cold whether settled dry cold.

But I don't believe this to be the final outcome I believe the cold were seeing is very likely and unsettled.

How long it last well that's just silly let's get the cold in first.

Best charts I've seen for years undercut to our southwest drawing the cold air straight easterly.

Also worth noting longevity!

Whilst the Atlantic is blocked everything going under the block so heights are not going towards a west NAO so there for fairly prolonged cold inbound.

[winterof79]

UKMO ,GFS and ECM 144Z

what's not to like?

 

 

 

[SLEETY]

Gem is the pick this morning daytime max temps of about -3c next week in places if it verifies.

dont see how people can be downbeat when charts like this are popping up for just one week away 

snow showers piling in from the east with strong and bitter E winds,causing drifting too,bring it on

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by SLEETY