Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Weathizard]

It's a lovely chart for the south but looking at this from the whole countries perspective it's a pretty slow process much like yesterdayds EC 12z

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

It's a lovely chart for the south but looking at this from the whole countries perspective it's a pretty slow process much like yesterdayds EC 12z

Yes hope this doesn't become a North/South split, but I suspect Southerners would like the high to be a couple of hundred miles further North than this as well.

[pureasthedriven]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Yes hope this doesn't become a North/South split, but I suspect Southerners would like the high to be a couple of hundred miles further North than this as well.

I can vouch for that. That has snow for the Channel Islands written all over it! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yes hope this doesn't become a North/South split, but I suspect Southerners would like the high to be a couple of hundred miles further North than this as well.

Well at least Nick Sussex is in with a real shot now at seeing some noteworthy snow and cold! 

[January Snowstorm]

5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

It's a lovely chart for the south but looking at this from the whole countries perspective it's a pretty slow process much like yesterdayds EC 12z

It is south of France lol.

Not a bad chart just not as good as gfs 

Plenty time for it to correct north again in later runs

[MattStoke]

Don’t worry, guys. If this ECM run is correct, we’ll all be under the cold pool by next winter. Bloody hell, ECM. Hurry up!

[Mucka]

Always jam tomorrow 

[radiohead]

A little bit further north than the 12Z but still frustrating to see the main thrust of cold too far south again. Still very exciting pattern and it's all 200+ hours away on the ECM so details will change.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Mucka said:

Always jam tomorrow 

It'll be time for jam butties and a kick around in the park before it gets here at this rate.

[london-snow]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yes hope this doesn't become a North/South split, but I suspect Southerners would like the high to be a couple of hundred miles further North than this as well.

 

Yup would love the bottom of that high to sit and just prop above the M74 rather than the cursed M4 ?

Another fantastic set of overnight ops.

[Mucka]

ECM, GFS

ECM. GFS

ECM, GFS

ECM, GFS

ECM,    GFS

   

 

Personally I would still have GFS further North as well. All those who willed it south, curses be upon ya yarrrRRrr.

Edited February 19, 2018 by Mucka

[Man With Beard]

The transition from Scandi High by 24 Feb to Greenland High by 1 Mar now looks pretty firm on both ops and ensembles.

It is pretty standard procedure for easterlies to correct south, but with an SSW going on I wouldn't take any exact details as gospel beyond D6

Edited February 19, 2018 by Man With Beard

[pureasthedriven]

11 minutes ago, london-snow said:

 

Yup would love the bottom of that high to sit and just prop above the M74 rather than the cursed M4 ?

Another fantastic set of overnight ops.

The ECM solution is fundamentally different to the rest of the suite within the same timeframes. So back to the ‘they can’t both be right’ malarkey. Let’s hope the very-well verifying GEM and the more spirited GFS has the better handle. To be honest, I’d take a big GFS snow swipe for a laugh and a warm up over that cold ECM bore-fest all day long. 

Edited February 19, 2018 by pureasthedriven

[Gustywind]

ECM great for longer term cold spell with the transition to a full Greenie high and NNE winds by the end of the run, but is around 24-48 hours slower to get the deep cold pool to move westwards, and when it does finally move it ends up going through France and just scraping SE England.

It’s a great run (the ECM) but it’s not the GFS cold/snow fest. Just need to shift the high closer to Iceland, as per the GFS. A meet in the middle would be Ok.

 

[markw2680]

Lol what have I woken up to? You would think it’s all gone wrong, what makes these charts anymore likely than last nights? It’s still just under a week away and in model terms that’s ages, just because there is a slight correction south atm doesn’t make it right, there was comments last night about it been a bit to far north!

we all need one big chill pill!!!

the theme is the same.. the cold is coming but we don’t no how cold or snowy yet, we won’t no that for at least 3-4 days yet.

RELAX

[Radiating Dendrite]

3 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Lol what have I woken up to? You would think it’s all gone wrong, what makes these charts anymore likely than last nights? It’s still just under a week away and in model terms that’s ages, just because there is a slight correction south atm doesn’t make it right, there was comments last night about it been a bit to far north!

we all need one big chill pill!!!

the theme is the same.. the cold is coming but we don’t no how cold or snowy yet, we won’t no that for at least 3-4 days yet.

RELAX

It never really does come on the ECM though. It waits for ages in E. Europe and then when it does come decides to pummel France. 

Going off past performance, the models usually converge on a middle ground which would be a favourable outcome for many. 

[pureasthedriven]

2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Lol what have I woken up to? You would think it’s all gone wrong, what makes these charts anymore likely than last nights? It’s still just under a week away and in model terms that’s ages, just because there is a slight correction south atm doesn’t make it right, there was comments last night about it been a bit to far north!

we all need one big chill pill!!!

the theme is the same.. the cold is coming but we don’t no how cold or snowy yet, we won’t no that for at least 3-4 days yet.

RELAX

Yes, indeed. Two distinct trends emerging now though. Not ECM’s first sniff at this route from its op (although its ensembles were better yesterday when it played with this evolution). So I would say something of a divergence amongst the whole model suite that will give a clear and distinctly different impact on the ground. I know which one I’d choose. 

[Radiating Dendrite]

From memory the ECM was behind the curve with the whole Easterly a few days ago finally going all out on the Friday 12z run.

The northward / southward correction is around 500 miles, nothing given the timescales involved.

[supernova]

Sorry, duplication, delete.

Edited February 19, 2018 by supernova

[Rocheydub]

The amount of people who ignored the warnings from @CreweCold and @The Eagle about the energy in the jets northern arm just because it was a possible more negative outcome is unbelievable.  Yes, it hadn’t happened yet, but it is now a real possibility! The blinkers on some here is unbelievable! 

[seabreeze86]

Overnight runs pretty much as you were apart from subtle changes. The ECM slightly to far south but has edged slightly north with the snow potential. The Gfs is perfect but has edged slightly south more noticeable on the GEFS again not much in it though. 

The biggest difference is over eastern Europe the GFS had much lower pressure from the low. Where as the ECM is a much cleaner flow. In my opinion as always a middle ground will be found perhaps more towards the GFS

[shaky]

The ecm looks further north than yesterdays 12z!!i still think it may correct north again on the 12z!!

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

The amount of people who ignored the warnings from @CreweCold and @The Eagle about the energy in the jets northern arm just because it was a possible more negative outcome is unbelievable.  Yes, it hadn’t happened yet, but it is now a real possibility! The blinkers on some here is unbelievable! 

I was under the impression it was a lack of low pressure engaging with the base of the high through the med that is causing the delay and slippage south. 

[smith25]

1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

The amount of people who ignored the warnings from @CreweCold and @The Eagle about the energy in the jets northern arm just because it was a possible more negative outcome is unbelievable.  Yes, it hadn’t happened yet, but it is now a real possibility! The blinkers on some here is unbelievable! 

It hasn' happened yet and it's no more likely than any of the other solutions.  It may even change by tonight.

[Rocheydub]

1 minute ago, smith25 said:

It hasn' happened yet and it's no more likely than any of the other solutions.  It may even change by tonight.

Absolutely correct, but it is a real possibility now. That’s what people were replying with laughing emojis etc. it’s very disrespectful to the 2 I mentioned above, while in fact it was excellent chart reading!