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Paul

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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3 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

GFS only now starting to pick up what the higher resolution models were showing yesterday. My own opinion is that this is actually in trouble despite the GFS :(  See ICON for just how much trouble that initial strengthening of the northern arm of the jet 72 - 96 hrs could have. 

UKMO, I rest my case. 144 - may by luck work out as you put it. I think that is going in to the continent. Damage is done at 96 hrs, not 120 hrs...

Yes, until the differences are resolved, the GFS is just eye candy for now...

Saying that, rightly or wrongly I won't be putting much stock in the ICON. I didn't rate it when it was showing dream charts and I don't rate it now. 

The UKMO and ICON day 6 charts are very different. The UKMO gets a greater wedge of heights where we want them at that point (west of Scandi) and so should avoid the phasing issues that the ICON shows.

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Wow another reload coming?

C4AD7D61-A979-4E96-AAD9-863941B1C91E.thumb.png.1d5cb11bfcb407666c2b8d60c5c56a04.png772CF8D0-D371-4685-9B93-64D12F68DA33.thumb.png.3d40c47295ef2fbce9c8a6475ebc0f8b.png

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GEM has core of cold hitting SE England down into France

gem-1-222.png?00

There has been a correction S overnight of the coldest uppers...something we don't want to see continue as we move forward.

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OMG best run to date this is shaping as that’s remarkable in itself! Is this what heaven looks like? Prolonged frigid conditions and very snowy. South east / East Anglia would be buried.

7C241A8D-0B80-4343-B077-ABB20AA2E609.thumb.png.d26e46a95caa86330cb5225a60d81b3b.png8DA34995-F89F-45B6-B3FC-71465772B566.thumb.png.f0da3e306221d34b56ab4d5de6f1bb41.png

Edited by Daniel*
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*Reads the comments and thinks it’s all gone wrong.

*Looks at the output and it is brilliant.

P.S. Why do people continue to pay any notice to the GEM? Utterly useless model for our part of the world.

Edited by MattStoke
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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GEM has core of cold hitting SE England down into France

gem-1-222.png?00

There has been a correction S overnight of the coldest uppers...something we don't want to see continue as we move forward.

For Southern England there’s much less room for error. I fail to see how we’ll avoid these deep cold uppers even ECM 12Z had -13C uppers for a time, and that was an outlier..

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3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

*Reads the comments and thinks it’s all gone wrong.

*Looks at the output and it is brilliant.

P.S. Why do people continue to pay any notice to the GEM? Utterly useless model for our part of the world.

GEM is not a useless model only posted lately it has had better verification stats of late than GFS so treat it with respect. 

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4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

For Southern England there’s much less room for error. I fail to see how we’ll avoid these deep cold uppers even ECM 12Z had -13C uppers for a time, and that was an outlier..

It's not a matter of the uppers, it's the instability that you have to consider also. On the ECM 12z it is quite possible that for a large part of the country, -10 uppers are experienced along with it being mainly dry. When you see SLP as high as 1030/1040mb you need the deep blues to be associated with the cold uppers as there would be limited instability to produce the precipitation without the low thicknesses.

ECM1-216.GIF?18-0

Here you can see the greatest instability heads down through central Europe and into France/Spain...that is something we don't want to see.

Edited by CreweCold
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Reload from Arctic incoming,what an amazing run ,and gem is unreal and METO looks awesome too 

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9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's not a matter of the uppers, it's the instability that you have to consider also. On the ECM 12z it is quite possible that for a large part of the country, -10 uppers are experienced along with it being mainly dry. When you see SLP as high as 1030/1040mb you need the deep blues to be associated with the cold uppers as there would be limited instability to produce the precipitation without the low thicknesses.

ECM1-216.GIF?18-0

Here you can see the greatest instability heads down through central Europe and into France/Spain...that is something we don't want to see.

I suppose it is something to watch it will be most problematic for those north ECM mean had instability reaching Southern England much more north than OP so that was highly encouraging. I would not like any further adjustments on that a touch north would be good. 

A3D1FF5D-268F-46A9-9256-07D94779FEE3.thumb.gif.9d0da17f1af2767da9b87837df558f47.gif

 

Edited by Daniel*

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2 hours ago, The Eagle said:

I think talking of how long the cold snap would be is premature.

Big risks 72 - 96 hrs. Blue in the face saying it. Need to see changes. GFS with the exception of JMA is on it's own in keeping the northern arm of the jet quiet. All the other models have a different version which would effect things drastically later on.

Hate to see this collapse but if GFS goes the way of the rest posters are not going to be happy i'd imagine. Not saying it will happen but the risk is there.

And yet other are ramping the charts up.   Are we going to get buried, or is it all going to end up in France?

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GFS/UKMO/GEM all very good this morning with potent cold hitting the UK albeit now generally taking the slower route.

No point commenting further until the ECM has come out to see whether there is a southward trend or whether we are starting to finda consensus on how things are going to pan out.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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3 minutes ago, Fender.. said:

And yet other are ramping the charts up.   Are we going to get buried, or is it all going to end up in France?

No one knows. Keep an open mind and don't get sucked in to something that could leave you bitterly disappointed instead of bitterly cold :)

Everything is still 160 hrs + 

February 2012 was traumatic enough i'd have thought many lessons were learned from that!

Edited by The Eagle
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1 minute ago, Fender.. said:

And yet other are ramping the charts up.   Are we going to get buried, or is it all going to end up in France?

 

1 minute ago, Fender.. said:

And yet other are ramping the charts up.   Are we going to get buried, or is it all going to end up in France?

Is it reverse psychology? , because the charts still look very good to me.

Of course nothing is guaranteed in terms of snowy cold until we have cross model agreement at t48

 

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8 minutes ago, Fender.. said:

And yet other are ramping the charts up.   Are we going to get buried, or is it all going to end up in France?

It’s not ramping its simply saying for what model shows. I’ve been model watching for many years and seriously I’m struggling with any reference points to what we are looking at now. Based on probability from what’s evident it is IMO highly unlikely to go way of ECM 12Z.

Edited by Daniel*
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Or is it Eagle"s location, being further west in Ireland, any southward correction would effect him more?  I'm a pessimist by nature, and now I'm concerned 

Edited by Fender..
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1 minute ago, Fender.. said:

Or is it Eagle"s location, being further west in Ireland, any southward correction would effect him more?

It's not about member's locations, it's more to do with the idea that once southwards corrections start, where do they stop?

Yes, the GFS and GEM 0z runs would bring snowy nirvana to the S and SE but the 12z ECM wouldn't be especially good for anyone- despite the cold uppers. If you're in the SE of England then the 0z GFS and GEM are pretty much the pinnacle of what you want to be seeing. Any further S and parts of the N of the UK start to miss out and even the SE would miss the CORE of the cold/instability.

Will be interesting to see the ECM.

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3 minutes ago, Fender.. said:

Or is it Eagle"s location, being further west in Ireland, any southward correction would effect him more?  I'm a pessimist by nature, and now I'm concerned 

that - and he does not want to get his hopes up, only to have them crushed.

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Just now, CreweCold said:

It's not about member's locations, it's more to do with the idea that once southwards corrections start, where do they stop?

Yes, the GFS and GEM 0z runs would bring snowy nirvana to the S and SE but the 12z ECM wouldn't be especially good for anyone- despite the cold uppers. If you're in the SE of England then the 0z GFS and GEM are pretty much the pinnacle of what you want to be seeing. Any further S and parts of the N of the UK start to miss out and even the SE would miss the CORE of the cold/instability.

Will be interesting to see the ECM.

Are we really seeing southern corrections? These wobbles are expected at this range, too early to say really. Apart from ECM which happened to be an outlier it all looks fairly negligible if there is, I maintain the SE will be very unfortunate to miss out. On good snow and cold, for once I’m quite confident. I hope I’m not struck down for it..

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Well lets hope we all get a decent spell, and of course our friends in Ireland as well

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1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Are we really seeing southern corrections? These wobbles are expected at this range, too early to say really. Apart from ECM which happened to be an outlier it all looks fairly negligible if there is, I maintain the SE will be very unfortunate to miss out. On good snow and cold, for once I’m quite confident. I hope I’m not struck down for it..

Well...the GEFS suite how now flipped more towards the initial ECM 12z idea (i.e 72-96 hr range)

gensnh-21-1-114.png

We'll see how it unfolds from here

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It’s a waiting game. Still swings and roundabouts for probably another 48 hours. Yesterday too far north..... today too far south..... still a long way to go but it is getting closer! 

I still think this could be a blinder! 

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well...the GEFS suite how now flipped more towards the initial ECM 12z idea (i.e 72-96 hr range)

gensnh-21-1-114.png

We'll see how it unfolds from here

So you seem to be saying it will  move towards the ECM solution later on. I suppose if it can go wrong it will...

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