Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Mucka]

Very much the slower more secure evolution in evidence this morning which means likely drier away from the East and South but who knows what can pop up once those extremely cold uppers are in palce?

The signal for retrogression and a Greenland high is the strongest I have ever seen by far in FI among GFS ensembles and as Crewe alluded to, GFS probably sucks that away into Canada and restores a Westerly flow far too readily and by then we are looking at 300+ hours anyway!

It is very hard to see anything but an exceptional late Winter cold spell taking hold now but this is the UK we are talking about so give it another 24 hours. 

JMA really the only model going for a quicker evolution to cold this morning so far so looks like the deep cold will hit anywhere from 25th/26th.

Hoping for a slightly more exciting ECM.

Ensemble graphs show a solid week of sub -5 850's and around 3 days of sub -10, so we are currently looking at a probable 10 day cold spell minimum with this type of evolution.

And just check those temps, exceptional cold for end of Feb early March.

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by Mucka

[Polar Maritime]

Some cracking charts this morning again from the GFS, A bitter Easterly setting up for next weekend and through wk2 turning N/Ely.

[Banbury]

Reading C C’s post you’d be inclined to think many members are like last nights ECM

Click on GEFS start at 192 and and look at the following 24hours . Do that for the Control and all 20 runs and I think you will be very happy 

[shaky]

Not many comments on ecm so i assume its the same!!gfs still showing easterly but ukmo has definitely delayed it when you compare the 144 hour chart to yesterdays 12z!!and looks a little further south!not a bad morning until this ecm comes out lol!!

[Mucka]

ECM very much on the same page as UKMO, secure block, slow burn.

"Like a Slow Burn
Leading us on and on and on 
Like a Slow Burn
Turning us round and round and round Hark who are we 
So small in times such as these
Slow Burn 
Slow Burn"

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by Mucka

[northwestsnow]

Looks a good EC to me at 120-

[Lukesluckybunch100]

ECM looking great at 120

[Cheshire Freeze]

14 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Reading C C’s post you’d be inclined to think many members are like last nights ECM

Click on GEFS start at 192 and and look at the following 24hours . Do that for the Control and all 20 runs and I think you will be very happy 

Erm would you?

Don't think I mentioned anything about the GEFS being anything like last night's ECM op run, sorry buddy but I think you're seeing things. I said that the mean had shifted the core of the cold S slightly from the 18z suite and that's as far as I went.

I then made a post going more in depth about the trends within the 0z GEFS suite where I highlighted the likely progression to a Greenland HP. 

Personally, I have no idea why some members (in the minority admittedly) seem to have an agenda against anything I post, because I do only just post what I see. There is no bias involved and rough or smooth I post what is shown. 

I'm not prepared to ramp unnecessarily as some members would obviously like to see. There is a ramp/moans/banter thread for that.

Just so we can be clear, here is what I posted about the GEFS-

I've been through the individual perts of the GEFS and what is overwhelming is the difficulty the modelling is having over resolving the transition of the Scandi-Icelandic-Greenland-Canadian HP progression. Some allow the easterly in, some give us a brief easterly before a northerly and others even send the easterly down into Italy!

What is also abundantly clear from the 0z GEFS suite is that there is a current (this run) signal for a cyclonic phase to take precedent around day 10 onwards. On the face of it, some of the perts look underwhelming...that is until you take a look at the upper air profiles and realise you have LP systems meandering around in -6 to -8 850s!

Edited February 19, 2018 by CreweCold

[chris55]

GFS ensembles are the best we have seen in terms of agreement in getting the very cold pool into the uk! Spread reducing and clustering tightening.

EC slower with the very cold pool remaining to the east at 144, should make it eventually you would think,

UKMO with a better shape to the high at the same period with the westerly flow under looking stronger thanks to the more developed trough to the south east.

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by chris55

[Banbury]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Erm would you?

Don't think I mentioned anything about the GEFS being anything like last night's ECM op run, sorry buddy but I think you're seeing things. I said that the mean had shifted the core of the cold S slightly from the 18z suite and that's as far as I went.

I then made a post going more in depth about the trends within the 0z GEFS suite where I highlighted the likely progression to a Greenland HP. 

Personally, I have no idea why some members (in the minority admittedly) seem to have an agenda against anything I post, because I do only just post what I see. There is no bias involved and rough or smooth I post what is shown. 

I'm not prepared to ramp unnecessarily as some members would obviously like to see. There is a ramp/moans/banter thread for that.

I’m not against anything you post in fact they are good reads but most of your posts this morning are all about Southern correction, I was just pointing out to people go look for yourself . 

And of course you might be right but up to now it all looks good, ECM might have other ideas ( let’s hope not )

 

No worries

Edited February 19, 2018 by Banbury

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM day 6 very similar to UKMO...the day 7 chart will be illuminating...will we get the E European LP trigger to help pull the cold west?

Edited February 19, 2018 by CreweCold

[January Snowstorm]

ECM very slow to bring the cold in this morning.  Even by Sunday it's still way to our East. It isn't a favourable trend tbh though it should make it at 168hrs

Edited February 19, 2018 by January Snowstorm

[Aiden2012]

Cold incoming 

[Weathizard]

The ECM is like pulling teeth at the moment, pressure to high to our south and much slower route, I am slightly concerned that the truly great charts aren't coming within day 6 or so, it's really dragging its heels this Easterly malarkey

 

Day 8/9/10 will be great as always I'm sure

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

ECM very slow to bring the cold in this morning.  Even by Sunday it's still way to our East. It isn't a favourable trend tbh

Yeh expect gfs to climb on board later on today with the slower evolution!!ukmo and ecm look idnetical!!does ecm look better though compared to yesterday?

[pureasthedriven]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

ECM very slow to bring the cold in this morning.  Even by Sunday it's still way to our East. It isn't a favourable trend tbh

That very slow burner evolution remains closest to Exeter’s overnighter (which has remained pretty rock solid this past week). Definite emphasis there on the 7day plus timeframe - for now. 

[Rayth]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

ECM very slow to bring the cold in this morning.  Even by Sunday it's still way to our East. It isn't a favourable trend tbh though it should make it at 168hrs

Could be that the GFS has snapped out a stiff jab , and the ECM is winding up a huge haymaker ! Time/Runs shall tell as always

[chris55]

It's coming, just need some more energy underneath to drag that cold pool west, but in fairness EC has been consistent with ist slower progression of the deep cold.

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, Raythan said:

Could be that the GFS has snapped out a stiff jab , and the ECM is winding up a huge haymaker ! Time/Runs shall tell as always

Well GFS still has under -14 850's by this stage and -10 850's at 300 hours so hardly a quick jab.

[Mucka]

Consistent with its 12z run which given the synoptic is about as unexciting as it gets so I will pass and stick with GFS or even better JMA thank you. 

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by Mucka

[Rayth]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Well GFS still has under -14 850's by this stage and -10 850's at 300 hours so hardly a quick jab.

Let me finish ! Followed by a crushing left hook ! ?

Northern correction by the ecm ? 

[Cheshire Freeze]

At day 8 the N of the country would wonder what all the fuss is about

Snow in the S/SE with a windchill. Lighter winds further N and cold overnight but mostly dry.

[terrier]

So great gfs and ukmo this morning once again. Unfortunately the ecm is in its tortoise mode again with any cold been 7 day plus away. But to be fair it does get there eventually. So all in all another good set of output to start the day. 

[MattStoke]

ECM looks a bit further north than the previous run to me but, wow, it is slow.

[northwestsnow]

EC looks fabulous to me at 168-192