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Paul

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Control gets frigid uppers into the east coast by 150 :shok:

gens-0-0-150.png

 

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7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Todays 12z JMA !!!!

Unpossible!

JN168-21.GIF?18-12

The high is too far North! :wallbash:

Edited by Mucka

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The GEFS mean has colder uppers over the SE than the operational run at 156!

gens-21-0-156.pnggfs-1-156.png?18

 

 

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EC clusters: T168 - slightly favouring the slower EC op solution, but I think the number bringing in the cold pool quicker is up (21 out of 51). Both clusters will turn cold whatever.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018021812_168.

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1 minute ago, radiohead said:

The GEFS mean has colder uppers over the SE than the operational run at 156!

gens-21-0-156.pnggfs-1-156.png?18

 

 

What in the name of all that's bloody holy?

Totally expected the operational run to the a cold outlier, not part of the main cluster? Flipping heck. 

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How about this for a 192 mean.  There's clearly very good agreement in the ensembles.

gensnh-21-1-192.png

And the 850's mean include -12's clipping the east coast....terrific stuff

gensnh-21-0-192.png

Edited by Ice Day

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Oh my bloody god. The ensembles! I need to lye down. Take this from P7. It’s not even the most extreme! Sunday is a national blizzard day on some of these charts...

Advice. Focus on high res. If it runs as we hope, the rest will follow. 

C6F5A54D-76B5-4AFF-B7E9-EAE045CD7C92.png

Long fetch easterly anyone? 

 

B6105231-1D3E-4B1D-A2B9-EECEB498BDC7.png

Edited by ITSY
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So..... after seeing only the odd snowflake in the wind and no lying snow for 5 years, on the calculation of 1mm of rain equals 7cm of snow I’m expecting to see 92.4cm of snow on March 1st....... errmm... ok then!! ?? bring it on I say!! 

Loving these charts.... IF ONLY!! 

F46954FB-0B10-44DB-9A47-F72842033A49.jpeg

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Both NAVGEM and Arpege 18z's are showing the issue that is potentially a real problem for prospects at 96 hrs, namely that bit more energy in to the northern arm of the Jet.

navgem-0-96.png?19-00

GFS looking a bit lonely with it's "clean" evolution now. Great run though.

 

Edited by The Eagle
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the ensemble 'mean' should be renamed the ensemble 'generous'

gensnh-21-1-192.thumb.png.0bed5c78942512bf6555d5565491f1e9.png

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36 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We’ll agree to disagree on that ...........

Day 10 the heights are too far north, I agree. However before that they are in prime position for a cold spell

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Seems to be a lot of support in the GEFS for the op idea of milder air pushing up for the south on the Wednesday/Thursday.

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Projected easterlies then a retrograde of height's into Greenland alowing a renewed push of cold air incoming from the NE,this is incredible stuff,this could turn out to be a memorable event

gensnh-0-1-300.png?18

if this comes off we will be discussing this every winter in the winter thread and would be one for the archives that's for sure

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13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

look At the cold & PPN from 156 -264

106 hours of sub -10 air & masses of snow with no end in sight!

B7069C7D-1797-4EF1-9637-CFAA26F51BA8.thumb.png.b9f76285e85d7e6a81e12b260477721f.png

&faux 1085 MB over greenland @264 

GFSC00EU18_210_1.png

The Control only gets up to 1080mb... poor show.

Seriously though the 18z ensembles are incredible. Many bring the cold forward to early Saturday and the op is actually somewhat of a mild outlier! :rofl:

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Just now, radiohead said:

Seems to be a lot of support in the GEFS for the op idea of milder air pushing up for the south on the Wednesday/Thursday.

just after the lot of support in the GEFS for a few days of epic snowfall for the majority of the country....

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Top that for a set of short ensembles.......don't bother, it's impossible.

Diagramme GEFS

Edit. Note the tiny scatter at day 8

Edited by Ice Day
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1 minute ago, radiohead said:

Seems to be a lot of support in the GEFS for the op idea of milder air pushing up for the south on the Wednesday/Thursday.

Look at the control that is the ideal rout we want to go with the pv dropping into Scandinavia and the high taking over Greenland. Which would swing the winds round from an easterly to an north easterly. The warming supports this and at that rang the models will not have an handle of that evolution. But looking at previous winters where blocking has moved from Scandinavia to Greenland this it the most likely outcome. 

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7 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

the ensemble 'mean' should be renamed the ensemble 'generous'

gensnh-21-1-192.thumb.png.0bed5c78942512bf6555d5565491f1e9.png

Best mean I’ve ever seen what’s surreal is GFS op wasn’t progressive in its spread it all feels too good to be true but for once we a fighting chance. :shok:

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I may regret saying this but I think that is the best and coldest set of high res GEFS I have ever seen. A true benchmark. FYI arpege has barely shifted - if anything it looks slightly more favourable with a poise towards the NE rather than N. Flaming heck. Dare I say only one way to go from here?! Or too soon? Seriously though, expectation management after those...

i mean, come on. Cambridge has two clusters for next Sunday: one with uppers of -10, the other with uppers of -14. Smack my ass and call me Julie. 

 

54FB3551-A7F3-4F39-9B7B-0FE10EC32828.gif

Edited by ITSY
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One word!!!

BANK!!

5F3EC2A0-4B15-4AEC-93FB-8BC9896C458F.thumb.gif.88b04a0c41db647a78800bfdab5f6393.gif

We can worry later about that low res stuff?

Edited by karlos1983
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9 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Seems to be a lot of support in the GEFS for the op idea of milder air pushing up for the south on the Wednesday/Thursday.

I was just to about to post that  Thursday is 4 days away and will probably change. But then I realised you ment next Thursday 11 days away .  Breakdown nailed then  

Edited by weirpig
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1 minute ago, radiohead said:

Seems to be a lot of support in the GEFS for the op idea of milder air pushing up for the south on the Wednesday/Thursday.

Yes, and it does seem a logical end process. I suspect the GEFS are being overly aggressive though with this.

TBH if this cold spell happens as is being shown it can be 20c from the middle of next week and I wouldn't care :D. I'd bank any of these runs without a second thought. ECM is also good for further down the line but given the time of year the long game isn't as attractive.

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