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Paul

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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The 18z gfs is in high spirits so far and canceling out the 12z ecm at just 72 hrs,stella pub run coming up me thinks,

gfsnh-0-72.png?18ECH1-72.GIF?18-0

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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

High ridding further north on the 18z. The opposite to the ECM. Just don’t want it to be too far north.

Yes, that's the worry with this one, it does look very north at T102, offsets the ECM anyway!

gfsnh-0-102.png?18

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The siberian express- in overide mode 18z...

Coming straight to station uk....

Top run coming again...gfs 18z

Edit ;.

Sometimes its easier on the nerves for some i feel to click the 850 hpa button as a run evolves....for the sake of nerves and knee jerk react!!

gfs-1-102.png

gfs-0-102.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Well it's clear to see how much of an effect the very early initial stages have on the general evolution. The 18z GFS has us into a cold E'ly by Friday...a very quick and clean evolution so far

gfs-0-108.png?18

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I absolutely love how the lows are just lining up over Greenland not able to really do anything and we see constant WAA pumped up into the Arctic. Absolutely beautiful synoptic.

Green.thumb.png.520960ace53b0f2c2339acf75549697e.png

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, that's the worry with this one, it does look very north at T102, offsets the ECM anyway!

gfsnh-0-102.png?18

It looks great and ‘clean’ strongest heights centred over Scotland and just north so a bit confused..

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Not sure why people are saying its too far north on this GFS, its pretty much in the exact same position as the 12z!

Anyhow Scandi high is more organised and as a result the cold pool looks like its headed to the UK by Friday! Lovely stuff
GFSOPEU18_111_2.png

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well if it’s sub -10c then

eps: 70% T204/T240

gefs: 70% T192/T252

thats a tad larger than 20% ...............

and this is a dry continental source, not cold zonal across the Atlantic. 

With the continental source and thus lower dew points, we’re probably not going to ‘need’ sub tens for snow are we (notwithstanding the chicken and egg of lower 850s helping convection et al)? I’ll take ‘em, because this has been the winter of marginal down here. But what do you think might do ‘the job’? I know - how long’s a piece of string, right...? 

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5 minutes ago, ScottishSnowStorm said:

You should be using the 126 12z for side by side comparison 

Yes,sorry

my bad,getting square eyes looking in to too much detail lol.

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Heights advancing more northerly on this run rather than northeast, better aligned @ 108. The train is inbound! Going to be a good run. Doesn’t look to high to me. 

5F218706-3883-48C4-AD73-E555BBB53FAF.png

78716028-FB1F-4E28-99FC-C6EC3D5DFC02.png

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Deepest cold uppers -20C more extensive too wee quicker too !

8B760FCB-24F3-4EC7-A23B-46439AC4580E.thumb.png.97f5e46800833cf4558df6b21b840d1d.png26392562-9B6D-408E-B449-0520221EF676.thumb.png.520a9f5589241865dd1eed9e736e64b7.png

Edited by Daniel*
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3 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Given the timescales here its just hard to believe that GFS will be wrong about bringing the cold earlier. To see a chart like this at 102 hours is simply jaw dropping!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=102&mode=0

 

 

Equally hard to believe the ECM would be wrong at that timescale too though - I still favour a slower evolution despite the GFS, we'd need to see a pretty big shift in the ENS/EPS to signal a faster evolution. 

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1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

In the freezer by the weekend going by this then. Is the GFS normally a more reliable short range model?

Are any these days???

No- overall yes within 144 range!!

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This is mad , proper cold by the weekend ?

IMG_1614.PNG

Edited by ICE COLD

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1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Not sure why people are saying its too far north on this GFS, its pretty much in the exact same position as the 12z!
 

Indeed, I think the stakes are so high now that every frame is being poured over with a jewellers eyepiece and there's a bit of 'over analysing' going on.  Anyway, out to 126 and it's looking absolutely superb, an upgrade on the 12z thus far I would say

gfsnh-0-126.png?18 

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1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

In the freezer by the weekend going by this then. Is the GFS normally a more reliable short range model?

Though not what the Beeb have just said but they are fully behind the idea of very cold air and snow after the weekend 

This looks a day or so early compared to the beeb

9A9FF3B8-426A-4FCB-91B3-E573F8BA8264.png

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The cold pool advancing a lot further west on this run at 120

WOW look at the difference between gfs and ecm

gfsnh-0-120.png?18ECH1-120.GIF?18-0

 

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36 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Doesn't that depending on what the job is? Up here with the current synoptics I'd be disappointed at less than 6 inches to a foot, I'm sure many down south would be satisfied with 3-4 inches, it's all relative to our standard winter experiences since the last big ones at the start of the decade.

The colder the uppers the better, the convective issue is naturally an important one so I'd say -12 to -20's would be more useful for us, but -8s and -10s would produce snow.

 

Everything is relative. When you’ve seen but one dusting in five years, I’ll take 3-4 inches all day long! No, my point was about snow falling in uppers of sub five (it can, of course, we know this). I get the ice day and snow staying on the ground shenanigans. I was fishing around the necessity of sub tens for lying snow, given ‘potential’ moderation of cold nearer the time. Let’s hope the forecast uppers are near correct. I remember walking to school in ‘87 in what, on hindsight, were probably -17 850s - fun but oh my goodness, cold! 

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Equally hard to believe the ECM would be wrong at that timescale too though - I still favour a slower evolution despite the GFS, we'd need to see a pretty big shift in the ENS/EPS to signal a faster evolution. 

Indeed, but when were dealing with days 3 and 4 the extra few hours later that this run comes out becomes a very big factor. 

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