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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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Yep - clock is on fast forward - GFS bringing the cold in earlier as the pattern pushes west faster than models expect. I think by the time this comes to zero hour we might see things hotting up next weekend... the cold pool forecast to be here on Saturday

gfs-0-144.png?12

may well be already hitting SE England. Snowy Twickenham anyone? 

Edited by Catacol
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The strength of this block across all the output is immense.  Look at the GEFS mean at T228

gens-21-1-228.png?12

1050 contour there on a mean chart at this distance.   Probability plots also give indication, probability of >1030mb at the same time:

gensprob-4-228.png?12

It's like (for this GEFS suite anyway) a nailed on retrogression.  And where's the Azores High? Absent, presumed missing!

Onward the ECM...

Edited by Mike Poole
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3 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yep - clock is on fast forward - GFS bringing the cold in earlier as the pattern pushes west faster than models expect. I think by the time this comes to zero hour we might see things hotting up next weekend... the cold pool forecast to be here on Saturday

gfs-0-144.png?12

may well be already hitting SW England. Snowy Twickenham anyone? 

The words 'hotting up' are unfortunate as that is exactly what will happen once the flow over the UK originates from the Med!

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1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

The words 'hotting up' are unfortunate as that is exactly what will happen once the flow over the UK originates from the Med!

Think you might be confusing the words 'once' and 'if' John 

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Just now, tight isobar said:

18z... getting better..

Colder soulutions growing.

The fat bloke on bing..

Of pies and lager....keep scoffing my son?

MT8_London_ens (4).png

12Z ti, like your posts though, even I think we could have an easterly here, not told anyone yet though, not that confident, or it will go balls up

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6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

12z... getting better..

Colder soulutions growing.

The fat bloke on a bing..

Of pies and lager....keep scoffing my son?

12z london ens

MT8_London_ens (4).png

Love your posts mate, really do.

Of pies and lager ...

Keep scoffing my son

 

BRILLIANT..KEEP IT UP MATE..

Edited by Jamesjane
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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

12Z ti, like your posts though, even I think we could have an easterly here, not told anyone yet though, not that confident, or it will go balls up

Firming is becoming steadfast now.

And if the ecm 12z is in nearly the same ballpark its another MAJOR STEP!!

Although hold ya-tongue for a few more days.

?

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2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

12z... getting better..

Colder soulutions growing.

The fat bloke on a bing..

Of pies and lager....keep scoffing my son?

12z london ens

MT8_London_ens (4).png

There is definitely a split  between 23rd and 25th though!!gota be very carefull here mate as we have been bitten far too many times!!we were lucky on this run the operational went with the colder cluster around those dates!!we want the milder runs gone in the next run between those dates just to be pretty much sure that this is going to happen!!

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12z a bit worse for me here in fife compared to the 6z more scatter early on but slightly better towards the end 

Screenshot_20180218-175756.thumb.png.4a1d9987783496e4cb8f1ba5c5114dc0.png

Screenshot_20180218-175810.thumb.png.53aee63ed33f0b41a7daaabe43f94466.png

A few talking about longevity of this cold spell well i did see a tweet earlier today from micheal ventrice over in the states and he was saying he reckoned that once we get locked into this cold pattern and he was talking greenland hieghts his thinking was europe would be in the cold for even 4+ weeks 

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

There is definitely a split  between 23rd and 25th though!!gota be very carefull here mate as we have been bitten far too many times!!we were lucky on this run the operational went with the colder cluster around those dates!!we want the milder runs gone in the next run between those dates just to be pretty much sure that this is going to happen!!

Yes i hear you but as again-expect a decline going forwards.

And notable below clustering!!!

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