Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

blizzard!

ukgust.thumb.png.e2ceed02869e435d9e08072ff4a93765.png

prectypeuktopo-9.thumb.png.6d83ff1e7bf71b4fb4b45f2a7aa1b2ea.png

Feeling cold as well, nothing marginal about that

Netweather GFS Image

2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think if we make it to Wednesday with the trend still pretty much the same I reckon we will get locked into this pattern for quite sometime 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Its interesting because we do get an upper high but in a slightly unusual place, to the east of Newfoundland, that in conjuction with the PV relocating again keeps the jet south, effectively its acting like a west based-ve NAO, even though in truth it isn't.

Certainly not something you see modelled every day.

I doubt it will happen anything like this anyway. 

I only mentioned it because it is different to what has gone before and if if it does go that way it will cut off the cold feed and likely lead to a quicker breakdown than the true retrograde pattern of previous runs.

It gets a stay of execution this run because it manages to still retrogess some high pressure and the Atlantic is dead.

Given it still produces stunning winter charts for a good period I doubt anyone will care. :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS delays the cold slightly then it brings it on. Afternoon forecast just mentioned getting fresher which would be the GFS outlook. All eyes ecm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't like FI on this run. That would mean spring for Central Europe and I can't allow that :D Cold air is blasted away too fast :closedeyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm seriously considering getting a few essentials in the cupboards just in case!

I never do anything like that and normally the hype is just that, but with every passing run I'm thinking "this might actually come off"

Amazing runs!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Certainly not something you see modelled every day.

I doubt it will happen anything like this anyway. 

I only mentioned it because it is different to what has gone before and if if it does go that way it will cut off the cold feed and likely lead to a quicker breakdown than the true retrograde pattern of previous runs.

It gets a stay of execution this run because it manages to still retrogess some high pressure and the Atlantic is dead.

Given it still produces stunning winter charts for a good period I doubt anyone will care. :D

Agreed, I'd perfer this evolution to what we would get if the upper high was placed too far north to start.

Besides, I'd probably take this run if it led to a big snow event like it does between 240-264hrs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is not the thread to talk about TV forecasts guys, as just demonstrated it derails the thread in moments.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think after 4 or 5 days of deep cold and the channel low blizzard even the die hard fans will have had enough. Serious cold and snow showing from that sunday through to the friday.

Will most likely look different by 1st weekend it March, we may be looking at a longer period of cold with retrogression.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Paceyboy said:

I think after 4 or 5 days of deep cold and the channel low blizzard even the die hard fans will have had enough. Serious cold and snow showing from that sunday through to the friday.

Will most likely look different by 1st weekend it March, we may be looking at a longer period of cold with retrogression.

I don't agree. I'd be looking for more snow at that point 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The title of this thread is will it get cold? That’s a fat yes, what remains uncertain is potency I have little doubt the beast from east is going to pay a visit, it will probably be not till T+72 we really know what we’re looking at. More unusual there’s a lesser chance of it being heavily moderated as we usually see as air is so cold.. and continent would have cooled substantially by then.

Edited by Daniel*

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Paceyboy said:

I think after 4 or 5 days of deep cold and the channel low blizzard even the die hard fans will have had enough. Serious cold and snow showing from that sunday through to the friday.

Will most likely look different by 1st weekend it March, we may be looking at a longer period of cold with retrogression.

I remember thinking that before 2010 started but when it ended I of course wanted more. November to April can snow every day as far as Im concerned as long as its warmer by May.

 

GFS mean very close to the OP so far

 

GFSAVGEU12_102_1.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UKMO pretty good as well

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Slight delay in the westwards progression of the cold air on the GEFS mean at 114hr in comparison the the 6z however it still looks good and looks to be going along the lines of ECM (which is still epic)

gensnh-21-1-114.png?12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ukmo brings a very neg tilt to the Atlantic trough which none of the other models show. Ecm op wasn’t in the largest eps cluster at day 6 with the largest looking a tad more ukmo 12z. Maybe the new ecm will trend a bit ukmo in 45 mins? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A few ensemble members keen to get the party started early.

gensnh-4-1-126.pnggensnh-6-1-132.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like a slight shift on the 12z ensembles to the slower ECM style evolution

IMG_0255.PNG

IMG_0256.PNG

IMG_0258.PNG

IMG_0259.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Afternoon all :)

A rare foray from me into the lion's den of the MoD at the weekend but this seems a weekend unlike most.

UKMO at T+144 next Saturday:

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

One of the concerns I've had looking at ECM ENS and some GEFS members has been the HP positioned too far south - more around Denmark - so the ambient air pressure over the UK is above 1030MB which wouldn't be conducive for the kind of snowfall many on here want to see.

I like this chart because the MSLP across the south is 1015-1020 MB so if we are going to get some convection off the North Sea (Thames Streamer anyone ?) this is going to be a big help.

GEM at T+144:

gem-0-144.png?12

Here are those little nuances that show how we haven't nailed this down at all YET, UKMO has the HP centred to the north of Scandinavia, GEM has a 1040 MB HP over Norway. The resulting MSLP over the British Isles is higher so it's drier and perhaps sunny to the west and north west. For all the later development, it's a case of close but not quite for snow fans - for cold fans, it's another hit.

Here's the GFS OP at T+144:

gfs-0-144.png?12

Somewhere between the two ? Well, I suppose, but the SW'ly tilt of the HP makes me wonder if the colder air will miss. However, the Ukrainian LP fills out over Denmark and the winds go lighter with the MSLP at 1015MB across the south so that looks good for snow as well.

Here's your near ice day:

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

Actually, no ice days for London on this but 1-2c on the last two days of the month won't feel warm at all. Plenty of opportunity for snow to lie to high ground and further north and even in lowland East London we might get lucky.

Nothing lasts forever - 7-10 days of severe cold will be memorable and noteworthy in its own right but the GEFS are already, at the very edge of FI, sniffing round the next evolution. We'd all like to see the HP retrogress and ridge SE drawing in a NE'ly from Scandinavia with plenty of embedded troughs (P 17 from the 06Z suite) but that's far from certain and it's also possible a strong west-based NAO will set up taking us back to the milder side of the jet. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Slight delay in the westwards progression of the cold air on the GEFS mean at 114hr in comparison the the 6z however it still looks good and looks to be going along the lines of ECM (which is still epic)

gensnh-21-1-114.png?12

If we get to this point, which is in the semi reliable timeframe, is it almost inevitable that the deep cold uppers will hit the U.K. a couple of days later?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Gustywind said:

If we get to this point, which is in the semi reliable timeframe, is it almost inevitable that the deep cold uppers will hit the U.K. a couple of days later?

Yes as long as we have no shortwave issues, it looks to be more a matter of timing of the arrival of the cold air, lets hope so anyway.

GEFS mean at 180hrs

gensnh-21-1-180.png?12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...