Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[AWD]

12z UKMO at T144;

IMO, that's a good ol' chart from the most important model to have on board in this situation.

[Mucka]

UKMO more in line with GFS than ECM so it will be interesting to see what ECM comes up with this evening

[MattStoke]

On the GFS 12z, the high is slanted more to the east and the flow looks more E than ESE compared to the 6z. Looks better, I think.

[Ice Day]

UKMO looking good at 144

[Daniel*]

T96 from GFS scattered snow flurries for the south east. Clean easterly flow!

[ICE COLD]

Just now, AWD said:

12z UKMO at T144;

IMO, that's a good ol' chart from the most important model to have on board in this situation.

Yes it is very very good chart and like you say definitely one to have on board ??

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

What even is the ICON? I mentioned it at work to blank faces...

If I mentioned any weather model by name at work I'd get blank faces...

[SMU]

UKMO solid @144 - deep cold on our door step 156 /168

 

GFS / UKMO pretty much identical now - maybe GFS a tad colder...

[tight isobar]

Wow the angle of heights could bring the deeper cold and sooner via 12z gfs...

This could be another peach here...only even quicker via cold incursion !!!

Edited February 18, 2018 by tight isobar

[ICE COLD]

GFS 120 

[Banbury]

Just stunning isn’t it 

[Mucka]

GEM going the ECM route, interesting.

[radiohead]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

What even is the ICON? I mentioned it at work to blank faces...

A close relative of the "IKON" perhaps?

Meanwhile, GEM is out to 180 now...

[tight isobar]

Let the BEAST COMMENCE!!!..

we are gaining quicker/cleaner...

Another cracker evolving...

[kev238]

This feels like the real deal tbh. Cross model agreement on a very cold easterly flow seems nailed on. The type of easterly to be determined but it feels like it should be a fun easterly blast rather than those dull boring lifeless ones.

[fromey]

6 minutes ago, Nick L said:

What even is the ICON? I mentioned it at work to blank faces...

Tweeted from Ian F a few days ago, they seem to look at it for comparison 

[Daniel*]

Some light snowfall perhaps for SE as soon as Friday with -8C uppers long drawn easterly..

[radiohead]

GEM looking very cold

 

[metaltron]

UKMO making me nervous now; gone from hero to zero with a risk of the cold air being too far north. GFS looks great!

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

GEM looking very cold

 

Not bad for a model that usually has uppers way too high!

[ICE COLD]

Same depth of cold on the GFS which looks like UKMO at t144 

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, metaltron said:

UKMO making me nervous now; gone from hero to zero with a risk of the cold air being too far north. GFS looks great!

I very much doubt that would happen if anything that shortwave is helpful would deflect it south towards us! 

[The Eagle]

Better UKMO angle. No problems here

[Day 10]

9 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GEM going the ECM route, interesting.

It is Mucka, and further on...

Let's see if ECM continues the path from this morning?

 

Edited February 18, 2018 by Day 10

[Ice Day]

So for comparison, UKMO and GFS at 144.

UKMO  

GFS   

Both cracking charts but GFS is backed a bit further east thus far.  I think I'd take the UKMO