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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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My take on things from the gfs6z: in a northerly wind from an Atlantic source at t54, a northeastly at t84 and a varying degree of strengthening, cold sourced easterly from t96 through to t192 and beyond potentially!!! We’re chasing Armageddon at  days 8-10, the cold from the northern quarter starts in 2 days and it will only get colder! 

Once in...... let the fun begin and I hope it truly is a snow fest!!!! 

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Icon first.. it feels like we are in a cinema waiting for the lights to go down ?..... most anticipated model run yet?! Or maybe just because it’s Sunday afternoon 

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43 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I dont think many understand that this equates to the same as an early season lake effect snowsnow they get off the great lakes in canada when you can get 30-40cm a day in 5cm rates per hour-

Also the Snow ratio for the uk is always sloppy at about 1-6/7 so 1mm rain = 6/7cm of snow-

In this perfect scenario you would be looking at stella dendrites & 1:15 ratios - so huge depths.....

Just saying....

x

 

 

 

 

Having lived through some insane lake effect snows in Canada that’s easily achievable and times 7-8cm an hour weren’t out of the norm.

I also know they can affect very localised areas. Wouldn’t this be the same scenario in the possible set up that you could miss out altogether whilst up the road gets a pasting? Only affecting a small area? 

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How many epic runs can we expect from the 12's?   

I wonder if we enter a bit of a limbo period now, with the basic pattern pretty well set (barring any downgrades or upgrades), but the next questions such as where and when will experience snow not resolvable until later in the week.  So it's a question of continuity of signal, and it's certainly still there in the ICON at T96, maybe pulls the E'ly in a little quicker than the 6z run, not much in it:

icon-0-96.png?18-12

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29 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

IKON @60 has corrected the atlantic shortwave back to the euros - thus ( on this model ) removing one of the last big hurdles ...

Here it is -

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( south west of iceland ) - this needs to traverse up the block northwards as opposed to NE into the block..

Check. :good:And as you rightly predicted the ICON is falling into line accordingly. Good alignment of the high at 144.

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3 minutes ago, Raythan said:

This a reflection of the retrogression that the models have been hinting at ?

Sadly someone with greater knowledge than my hopeful floundering would need to answer that one for us but I'd certainly like to think so. Would be interested to know the last time the NAO was five standard deviations below.

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Gfs keen on bringing a partial easterly flow as early as wednesday...

As the change gets underway...

Need to keep the gain going of advecting those lower uppers-west...

Looks very good for that though!!

gfs-1-78.png

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I bet if you looked through the archives you would never find extensive punishingly cold air like that at this fine of year even in mid winter you would really struggle.

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