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Paul

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Even by next Tuesday there are several ENS giving us potential snow from the east, the mean is way better than the Op. Could be an even better suite than the last one. 

A9ABADDC-7032-4779-8B3C-60C66530054A.png

Its next Friday when the really cold comes in on most ENS though.

Indeed and the Control is stunning 

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Looking at the overnighters mucka has posted yes each runs will vary but what seems clear is they all paint and put us into a cold / very cold picture. Key timeframe seem between 19th-22nd for the transition, 

Glad I booked the 21st-28th off work 🤩

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Best London ensembles of the winter...op continues to hold out before delivering the cold.....milder members becoming increasingly isolated....watch the mean continue to fall come tonight as the rogue warmer options fade away... (now why did I say that ! )

 

 

MT8_London_ens-10.png

Edited by KTtom

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19 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Best London ensembles of the winter...op continues to hold out before delivering the cold.....milder members becoming increasingly isolated....watch the mean continue to fall come tonight as the rogue warmer options fade away... (now why did I say that ! )

 

 

MT8_London_ens-10.png

Yeah that’s a great set , and although there is a cluster of warmer members you have to presume they will disappear. There is actually a decent cluster with -10c uppers, now imagine if that became the mean 😳 

Edited by Ali1977

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Yikes!!

Major snow event there, frontal snowfall to the south and heavy snow showers coming off the North Sea in a bitter easterly gale.

IMG_3322.thumb.PNG.74dce478e050ec23bc4232151499dde0.PNG

 

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2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Yikes!!

Major snow event there, frontal snowfall to the south and heavy snow showers coming off the North Sea in a bitter easterly gale.

IMG_3322.thumb.PNG.74dce478e050ec23bc4232151499dde0.PNG

 

What could possibly go wrong:cold:

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15 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Things taking shape nicely now - just beginning to ramp up as that wedge of high pressure looks to expand at 168-192 ...

Looking great today :)

well done Steve - hope I ain't talking too soon - BUT it looks like your gonna get your easterly after all - cheers mate

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Anyone understand why ecm is having another absolute shocker again this morning..168 looks as bad a chart as we have seen all winter..nothing like any forecast I've seen!

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Not sure where ECM is going this morning 

KT beat me to it , it’s off on one .... or is it?

Edited by Banbury

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Just now, KTtom said:

Anyone understand why ecm is having another absolute shocker again this morning..168 looks as bad a chart as we have seen all winter..nothing like any forecast I've seen!

doing it's usual flippy flopping while gfs now 144 plus is steady as a rock to one degree or another - easterly ahoy lol

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ECM dragging its heals this morning, will probably get there eventually.

IMG_3323.thumb.PNG.cca248110ad9b980b990c250ebdb512d.PNG

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7 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Yikes!!

Major snow event there, frontal snowfall to the south and heavy snow showers coming off the North Sea in a bitter easterly gale.

IMG_3322.thumb.PNG.74dce478e050ec23bc4232151499dde0.PNG

 

Looks like rain south of the M4!

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some of the gfs perbutations are insane for cold weather,try no 16 ,and not far off jan 87 for depth of cold and rivalling the coldest spells of weather ever seen in UK.and this is in the back end of winter

 

I think some all time records for late feb temp wise could be broken here If IF itr verifies

Half the country is going to be cut off with snow if any of these perbutations come true

 

I bet my life ECM is a mild outlier again

Edited by SLEETY

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3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

some of the gfs perbutations are insane for cold weather,try no 16 ,and not far off jan 87 for depth of cold and rivalling the coldest spells of weather ever seen in UK.and this is in the back end of winter

 

I think some all time records for late feb temp wise could be broken here If IF itr verifies

Half the country is going to be cut off with snow if any of these perbutations come true

a bit scarey really - that we can see all this, but the general public sleep safe in their beds not even suspecting that this is about to bite them shortly - yes this could be the most amazing wintry event we've had since 2010

ecm - yes a bit delayed on ecm - some forecasters have mentioned than there has been a tad activity from the sun/solar activity and are blaming a slight delay on this event on that - but gfs is resolutely steaming on with the 20th feb firmly routed in it's diary for the kick off

Screenshot_20180214-064617.png

Edited by andymusic

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GEFS absolutely stunning this morning at 384hrs (million miles away I know) has the -8 line other the east coast can't remember such a strong signal since March 2013. ECM on the other hand is not having it although could just be taking a different route to a easterly 

Screenshot_20180214-064617.png

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ecm been dreadful this winter,doesnt mean its wrong though,i guess we still cant be sure of anything when its an easterly we are talking about :( most the cold air going south on this run

Edited by SLEETY

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Ecm ensembles will be interesting yet again i suspect the signal is either delayed or the op sits on the milder side.

I personally think op runs are pretty misleading and can cause a lot of panic or excitement on here with this situation unfolding, I prefer ensembles to show the way forwards.

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Is everyone really prepared to dismiss the ECM? Might save a lot of pain further down the line if all the output is taken into consideration.

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GFS has been pretty much on the money all winter with the ECM lagging behind.

Not unimaginable is it that 0z run especially when we look at the ensembles. 

Displacement of the polar vortex over Europe anyone?  Brrrr

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2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Is everyone really prepared to dismiss the ECM? Might save a lot of pain further down the line if all the output is taken into consideration.

Wait until we see where it (The op) sits in the ensembles and go from there..

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10 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Is everyone really prepared to dismiss the ECM? Might save a lot of pain further down the line if all the output is taken into consideration.

When models don’t agree I always think it’ll go with the worst one - ECM in this case. Those GEFS were great though, so who knows. Hopefully a warm outlier within the ECM ENS

Edited by Ali1977

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