Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[ALL ABOARD]

Trend today for the GFS to by pass the oringal modelled scandi high and go straight to greenland? 

Not that i am complaining ?

[Johnp]

At 186hrs this looks identical to tonight’s 10 day GEM.

 

[Mucka]

Cocked and loaded at 192

If we get this I don't mind waiting but it is still possible we will get somewhere near here much quicker (first attempt)

JMA extended takes it time but gets there in the end.

Edited February 13, 2018 by Mucka

[Allseasons-Si]

And .........

up she goes

great vertical advection into Greenland,and look at that low over Scandi ready to pounce.

and i am NOT TELLING ANYONE ABOUT THIS COLD SPELL

 

Edited February 13, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

And .........

up she goes

great vertical advection into Greenland.

Lol, that makes Jan 19th 1947 look a little bland. Bless the gfs pub landlord run. Don't bargain on it though. 

[ICE COLD]

That's gotta be the longest sausage high pressure I've ever seen ?

The colds getting close 

Edited February 13, 2018 by ICE COLD

[blizzard81]

I still think most on here will be viewing tomorrow morning's ecm op through gaps in their fingers. 

[snowfish1]

Definitely blizzard81 would u blame me? Time is ticking on this winter 

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, Darkcloud said:

How soon can we realistically expect the models to get a handle on the SSW and it's effects? 

If you haven’t noticed, there is HLB cropping up on all suites! assuming that you mean ‘how soon will the nwp give a consistent coherent response’, the answer is we won’t know until it does! From my perspective heights rising to our north/northeast early next week and transferring west over time taking us to the early part of March seems a pretty good representation of the current modelling. We won’t be far away from this broadbrush picture although the detail for little old uk is impossible to predict. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Oh i love the excitement,

Scandi trough is going to produce big time on this run

i do like the huge banger stretching into the pole though,that is a huge murr banger

Edited February 13, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Met4Cast]

How ironic would it be if the high ended up too far North

[ICE COLD]

And the sausage is getting thinner ?

[markw2680]

9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

And .........

up she goes

great vertical advection into Greenland,and look at that low over Scandi ready to pounce.

and i am NOT TELLING ANYONE ABOUT THIS COLD SPELL

 

I’m not either as by the time it actually gets here it will be spring. Hopefully it won’t get pushed back any more as that’s all that seems like happening in the models to me. It’s always at least 8-10 days away. Anyway hopefully we will get rewarded eventually 

[ICE COLD]

The BBC said getting cold end of next week and the GFS 18z hears you . 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

How ironic would it be if the high ended up too far North

dont joke! That’s  the strat imprint which prevented the qtr delivering later this week! 

[SMU]

chance of 18z evolution - Almost 0.

[Mucka]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

chance of 18z evolution - Almost 0.

Bowling ball low sat in the Atlantic with zero disruption against a frigid block?

 

[ZK099]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

chance of 18z evolution - Almost 0.

Why do you say that? 

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

chance of 18z evolution - Almost 0.

Really mate . Why do you think that ? Cheers mate .

[blizzard81]

When in almost unchartered territory, it would be considered very unwise to rule anything in or out. 

[Met4Cast]

Too far North 

You have to laugh, really. The 12z wasn't far enough North so to teach us a lesson the 18z has put it about 700 too far North. Very odd evolution this one.

First time a model run has actually made me giggle out loud. Ridiculous.

Edited February 13, 2018 by Daniel Smith

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

chance of 18z evolution - Almost 0.

It's just one evolution?

the trend is the same.

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

chance of 18z evolution - Almost 0.

Almost zero? it’s not impossible though with a neg NAO as big as predicted. I’d give it 10/15% chance. 

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Too far North 

You have to laugh, really. The 12z wasn't far enough North so to teach us a lesson the 18z has put it about 700 too far North. Very odd evolution this one.

First time a model run has actually made me giggle out loud. Ridiculous.

Don't knock it, it gets a bit chilly for a day.

Not bad from a near perfect synoptic set up

 

[ICE COLD]

I have to admit after just running the 18z through again it's very strange that evolution. Onwards and upwards ?