Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Stuie]

1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

12z  london.ens well worth a look.

TI, taking that chart at face value, I know where my money would be wagered. In saying that, the % of this going wrong is much higher than you really want but heck, it`s a lovely chart.

[Met4Cast]

Well, this place is about to become unbearable so I'll be back in a couple of days when the models revert to something more favourable.

Welcome back, PV 

[Daniel*]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

No easy way to cold there . I achally give up . 

That’s how you go insane this is testament compared to 00z to not take each run as a god send especially following a SSW we await to see where it fits in the ENS imo that day 10 chart will be a huge outlier. 

[Johnp]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

No easy way to cold there . I achally give up . 

Please, do!

Can't people just realise the models are all over the place? Even that ecm would be good a couple of days on imo  

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Well, this place is about to become unbearable so I'll be back in a couple of days when the models revert to something more favourable.

Welcome back, PV 

Have to agree mate. All change in morning.

[January Snowstorm]

All models have taken a step back tonight wherever this new signal is coming from. The ensembles are also changed so not a rogue run

Will it change back tomorrow? 

[inghams85]

How can that ECM run even be possible with the current warming? Bin it the models are really really struggling it's like a bad soap opera! One good day one bad!

[tinybill]

5 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

How can that ECM run even be possible with the current warming? Bin it the models are really really struggling it's like a bad soap opera! One good day one bad!

its  nice  to see bbc  weather hinting of a possible very cold air at the end of  next week

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

after 300 hr its looking  great

 

Edited February 13, 2018 by tinybill

[Frosty.]

Time for some good news after that Ecm shambles..some excellent GEFS 12z perturbations both in the T+240 and later frames...regarding the Ecm run, we must remember that the range we are most interested in is still well outside the reliable timeframe and therefore not every op run will serve up the holy grail!

[inghams85]

Just now, tinybill said:

its  nice  to see bbc  weather hinting of a possible very cold air at the end of  next week

Yeah and I agree with em! It's just nonsense that run its saying there is no SSW. The PV just can't do that..... the next time we have a strat warning remind me to not take the models serious!

[Deep Snow please]

4 hours ago, Badgers01 said:

There are routes for every which way it really is incredibly scattered - based on that run I don’t know how we can feel confident that winter is coming ....?

 

The models are going to be all over the place here as there dealing with a few unknowns, it's a wait and see game but there's a lot of signals pointing to a good event.

Edited February 13, 2018 by Paul

[chionomaniac]

15 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

No easy way to cold there . I achally give up . 

So, at day 6 ECM we see a promising chart and yet you would rather give up instead focusing on the day 10 chart? Mystifying. 

Especially as it wouldn't take much change in the modelling to be in the cold to the east post day 10

I think some expect to see Armageddon charts every run.

Remember I will reiterate - if the hoover is turned off then don't expect it to suck up the dirt just because someone says it will. Treat the charts with the same scepticism because each SSW is different and not necessarily easy to model.

Edited February 13, 2018 by chionomaniac

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

Yeah and I agree with em! It's just nonsense that run its saying there is no SSW. The PV just can't do that..... the next time we have a strat warning remind me to not take the models serious!

Yes, given the magnitude of the SSW I would be really surprised if it managed to organise itself that well.

Then again, the crossroads post I wrote earlier on this week hinted that the Canadian PV may be becoming harder to shift. Still... best to reserve judgement at this point, this is the best chance in 5 years to break the mold.

[Stuie]

Sorry Chio, I can`t help it. Does this mean the PV is going to Dyson?

[bryan629]

7 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

How can that ECM run even be possible with the current warming? Bin it the models are really really struggling it's like a bad soap opera! One good day one bad!

I agree its destined for the bin... it is just one run amongst many more to come.. 

just cant help it though when i looked in the bin i saw this hahah 

[Snowjokes92]

I dont understand why people are getting so disheartened over one run! The ecm was a cracker throughout this morning, up to 144 hours on the 12z its excellent too. Anything after isnt as important. The ecm hasnt even modelled anything remotely that accurate post 144 hours all winter from my recognition anyway! Im just glad the near timeframe the upgrades are there. Thats most important

[That ECM]

10 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

So, at day 6 ECM we see a promising chart and yet you would rather give up instead focusing on the day 10 chart? Mystifying. 

Especially as it wouldn't take much change in the modelling to be in the cold to the east post day 10

I think some expect to see Armageddon charts every run.

Remember I will reiterate - if the hoover is turned off then don't expect it to suck up the dirt just because someone says it will. Treat the charts with the same scepticism because each SSW is different and not necessarily easy to model.

Completely agree with you but Ice cold joined in October 2017!! We've all felt his pain and frustration especially in our early days. 

Edited February 13, 2018 by That ECM

[Duane S.]

A lot of daft posts in here this evening.

We all know the charts were/are going to be all over the place. Why the surprise when we get them?

Those unable to control their emotions need to take some time out I think,  the ride is not going to get any smoother for a while yet folks.

[nick sussex]

I think we’re going to have to accept that the models seem to be clueless with some wild swings between runs.

If that day ten ECM chart verifies I’ll join the Moonies!

 

[inghams85]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think we’re going to have to accept that the models seem to be clueless with some wild swings between runs.

If that day ten ECM chart verifies I’ll join the Moonies!

 

??? my sentiments exactly! NO CHANCE

[bobbydog]

like i said earlier, we will see many variations on the theme of blocking over the next few days. it seems unlikely that we would go from this-

to this-

considering all the output from the other models. 

anyway it seems the ECM are having technical issues with their power suppy-

[ICE COLD]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Completely agree with you but Ice cold joined in October 2017!! We've all felt his pain and frustration especially in our early days. 

Cheers mate and cheers to @chionomaniac for the reply . And as you say @That ECM I did join in 2017 . But been following the models and forum since December 13 (not a good time to join ) . Since I started model watching in 2013 I have not seen one decent cold spell count down to T0 . So maybe yer frustration kicking in ?. Cheers keep up the good work both of you ?

[Duane S.]

Here’s what we are up against. 12z ens.

25th Feb. The op goes from the warmest member to the coldest member in the space of a little over 24 hours.

Scatter city.

[Ayrshire weather]

Think everyone needs to calm down and chill out.... Models will change some runs will be better than others this SSW event is causing major modeling issues so time is needed for the decent charts to show... Next few days charts should improve! 

[Day 10]

Forget the ECM! Nice thoughts, nice thoughts!

Onto the 18z!!!