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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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For my area at least , the op goes on a rogue quest for a bit  , even the control abandons it , the ‘pub run’ would just have to pick a perb below the mean and then it’s euphoria in here again later 

304E467C-5C18-4D41-9BB7-1292C7B0C453.jpeg

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As long as you have GEFS like this;

IMG_20180213_175627.thumb.png.4675afc1c2ce00e6851f23a02f2fa1ee.png

You will always get fluctuating GFS Op runs.  

I bet you tomorrow there will be a "steller" run & a "naff" run.  

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4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

MT8_London_ens (8).png12z  london.ens well worth a look.

Ian Fergusson tweeted the other day that the 18th is the day of divergence in the models and that is clearly still evident there in those GFS ensembles.  At what point will it begin to resolve i wonder?

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the 12z takes its time getting there. would we be happy with it?

prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.b790f3fb18698fed1812983424b2f4bc.png

prectypeuktopo-1.thumb.png.f6f8e1e9606e74305c95a2cc7e56b914.png

ahh... go on!

8c8d3c4a3eb7db4a7d8868c9276bf5f7-1.thumb.gif.19436a669007f654c326f475433274e4.gif

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8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

MT8_London_ens (8).png12z  london.ens well worth a look.

The spread on those is surely very disheartening to coldies this early evening.

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2 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

The spread on those is surely very disheartening to coldies this early evening.

Scatter is notable...but the colder routes are very much there!!!

Should begin to see some tightening soon @colder @clusters

Edited by tight isobar
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11 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

MT8_London_ens (8).png12z  london.ens well worth a look.

In all my years of weather watching I don't think I've ever seen an ensemble suite with a spread as large as that one. It's like the ensembles have all had an argument and decided to separate into their own rooms for a few days. 

With an ensemble suite like that, the way forward is about as clear as mud with a helping of extra mud. As for the Control run? Well.. if the OP had gone down that route this place would be littered with fully grown adults having meltdowns.

Control.thumb.png.b2f110a1cbda75d1f74464450fe3805f.png

It's fine. We're still on track, the models are finding their way. Have patience and believe that they'll get there. Everything screams Easterly, we just need to wait for the models to stop having a panic attack about the Stratosphere reversal. 

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To calm the nerves, I checked the Gefs 12z and there are plenty of Easterlies in the T+240 range and plenty of Ely / Nely..even some Nly runs at the end, some absolutely stonking perturbations with masses of wintry potential in the mid / longer range!:cold-emoji::D

Edited by Frosty.
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120 from 12z ECM just doesn't seem right to me. The evolution looks wrong in a lot of places... Actually close to a cross polar flow. Evolution probably looks wrong to me because of the reversal of winds up top!

Screen Shot 2018-02-13 at 18.21.15.png

Edited by Rocheydub

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7 minutes ago, Team Jo said:

One set of 6z = party poppers at 7.30am, wax the sledge! stockpile coal...! 

One set of 12z = nope, it’s all gone wonky, we told you so, get your bulbs planted.  This is the very definition of model volatility. We knew it would happen, so let’s not get hung up when it flips the ‘wrong’ way. It will!

*sigh* it’s going to be a long week in here if folks are going to pick apart every.single.frame.

all bets are off beyond 120? No?

I feel like psychiatric testing should be implemented before being allowed to post in here.

"Will you throw a party/throw your toys at the drop of a single GFS run?"

"Can you stay calm and not jump the gun at 06hrs of a run?"

In all seriousness, nothing has changed other than the models toying around with the timing, really. It's still far enough out that it can very easily change and it has been changing, with every single run because that's just how the models work. 

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1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

This is a good run still first let’s see where it fits, we may need to be patient initially it is likely to be dry. But them heights are going polewards they’re certain not to sink. Cold air plunging into Eastern Europe. 

FC90EEDD-68A9-4EC1-AF1C-30BD3B95F952.thumb.png.2b7e44690c78d6a4f1daba13f2d9232a.pngEE7F1C0F-013B-47A7-AA83-5E02FE22A94E.thumb.png.572125bcdd4170678a5ad9c3d5b3e390.png

Daniel, re the sunspot. For laymans count it is one spot.  2699 is unusual inasmuch that it has been crackling B and C class flares.  Unusual for a sun approaching minima.  But this is an unusual time, this is quietest sun fo at least 100 years, and set to go even deeper.  I wouldn’t be surprised if this unusual behaviour is part of what we are seeing.

fwiw....lots of cold for the Spring ahead imo....just depth of cold is the question and when main thrust arrives.  I have v early March for main thrust, but all that was without the MSSW so I’m hopeful.

ECM t144 looking promising 

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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ECM at 144 looks good to me, jet digging south and plenty of weaker heights above the HP for it to migrate north. Could be great by T192

1E90744C-1447-4982-A33C-B19F27D9112D.png

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ECM 144 pick of the three main models tonight

ECH1-144.GIF?13-0UN144-21.GIFgfsnh-0-144.png

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28 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Scatter is notable...but the colder routes are very much there!!!

Should begin to see some tightening soon @colder @clusters

There are routes for every which way it really is incredibly scattered - based on that run I don’t know how we can feel confident that winter is coming ....?

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The 168 is very good, looking very similar to this mornings run thus far.  Consistently right or consistently wrong though?

ECH1-168.GIF?13-0

Edited by Ice Day

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I'll be honest, 192 isn't exactly brilliant..

192.thumb.gif.4598c688c50a16fbe40e1d8242c11795.gif

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ECM 192hr completely collapses can there be a rescue job next frame:rofl:

Untitled.png

Edited by booferking

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

I'll be honest, 192 isn't exactly brilliant..

192.thumb.gif.4598c688c50a16fbe40e1d8242c11795.gif

It’s not Great , Lake effect snow across east coast of Italy again I imagine ...

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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I'll be honest, 192 isn't exactly brilliant..

192.thumb.gif.4598c688c50a16fbe40e1d8242c11795.gif

PV looks so dominant over Canada/Greenland - where is the SSW?

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3 minutes ago, booferking said:

ECM 192hr completely collapses can there be a rescue job next frame:rofl:

Untitled.png

Blame the sun? :laugh: up to 168 it was looking great fairly underwhelming picture afterwards.

A45272A0-26C7-4C93-9450-B39111803270.thumb.png.c17aed2bf3784ad97622ac47e8f7fad6.png

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Well it ant gonna look like this at day 10 from the 00z . Shocking output tonight 😡. 

IMG_1456.PNG

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Run by run analysis with this major SSW ensuing overhead is even more futile than normal.

patience..

"slowly slowly catchy monkey"

 

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No easy way to cold there . I achally give up . 

IMG_1457.PNG

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