Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[The Eagle]

00z ECM moves a little toward UKMO/ICON but probably not enough at 96 hours.

[SMU]

8 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Got any verification data for the IKON? Is it now one of the top 3 and therefore makes a full house?

not really it doesnt matter tbh - what do you think the vefirication is going to be for the next 10 days based on the last 5 days modelling for europe because it certainly wont be the ECM

  - no need for data- just the fact that UKMOhas completely followed the IKONS outputs today & now at 96 the ECM is edging closer---

S

[SMU]

ECM 00z backtrack from 120 yesterday to 96 today 

Note the better profile now at 96 on the. right--

[london-snow]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 00z backtrack from 120 yesterday to 96 today 

Note the better profile now at 96 on the. right--

Good to see your battery is topped up with juice for once mate i think you’ll need it..

So baring the gfs op (have yet to see the ensembles) we seem to be off to a flyer (Awaits ecm) but 96+ is a nod towards the ukmo route of thinking imo hopefully this is moving day ?

[Banbury]

Be interesting to see the U.K. 168

[The Eagle]

Not this time on the ECM.

[The Eagle]

NAVGEM solid.

 

Same as UKMO. Drops shortwave @ 96 hrs

 

Edited February 15, 2018 by The Eagle

[SLEETY]

nope jet going over the top,if it verifies.im tired of the ecm this winter,if it is wrong about no easterly,then im not bothering with it anymore,its gone garbage.

[Banbury]

Just throwing this in

ECM hasn’t wanted to know about the Eaterly bar the odd run ......is it on to something 

[chris55]

 

GFS highlighting how even with major blocking the cold flow could miss us. Just one of the possible options, but we'd be unlucky not to pull in the easterly eventually. However UKMO much faster with the easterly flow  

120

GEM also looking good

144

204

Ian F was talking about the SSW in local news the other day and said he expected the effect to be much later in the month into march, so an earlier onset of the blocking is a good sign.

 

[SLEETY]

if ECM is wrong then it might as well be binned,its been useless all winter,shame there are no verification stats for the UK not just NorthernHemisphere,i think it be bottom of all the models then/

 

Very much Milder  weather arriving next week then according to ECM

Edited February 15, 2018 by SLEETY

[The Eagle]

JMA also dropping the shortwave

 

[Ali1977]

ECM and GFS say no, surely if they were the only ones agreeing on cold we’d be backing them - sofor me this morning has took a turn for the worse, but then again Exeter and UKMO at total odds....Egg on face for some models , or is this how difficult SSW are to forecast into the future!!

[Banbury]

Just throwing the GFS Control in 

[SLEETY]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM and GFS say no, surely if they were the only ones agreeing on cold we’d be backing them - sofor me this morning has took a turn for the worse, but then again Exeter and UKMO at total odds....Egg on face for some models , or is this how difficult SSW are to forecast into the future!!

don't understand how their can can such huge differenes,ukmo is excellent and met office talking about much colder weather and heavy snow in places,end of next week yet ECM is showing complete opposite,one models credibility is going to be through the floor soon .

According to ECM spring temps arriving in the South next week and bitterly cold weather arriving from E according to the ukmo and the Met office,some is going to have a massive credibility drop here.

Edited February 15, 2018 by SLEETY

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

don't understand how their can can such huge differenes,ukmo is excellent and met office talking about much colder weather and heavy snow in places,end of next week yet ECM is showing complete opposite,one models credibility is going to be through the floor soon .

You have to wonder why ECM hasn’t even entertained the idea 

[bluearmy]

So we have collected the ukmo overnight on our quest for the accelerated cold easterly. We seem to have lost the gefs which are a bit saggy on the high until day 8/9. anyway, this dropping scandi upper low recurving sw has been an obvious option for the  big boys for several days. Ecm op steadfastly resusing to embrace it in one go. Be interesting to see how big the cluster on it remains in about an hour. the ukmo 00z run could simply  be the last hurrah on it before it disappears or it could become adopted by ecm and gfs later today. The eps spreads will tell us a bit more but the way the gefs have gone awol on it getting much west of  Poland this morning is a concern at such a short range.

week 2 gefs look ok. Perhaps a bit less emphasis on greeny blocking* and more on the Siberian trough extending sw into the developing broad sceuro trough

[Ali1977]

Some good news - cracking set of GEFS again - Op way way milder than most later on

Edited February 15, 2018 by Ali1977

[SLEETY]

what a surprise at the critical time frame the  gfs op is one of the mildest runs,where will ecm op stand I wonder ???

[That ECM]

Models still haven't agreed on the way forward, loving the ukmo, at least people aren't moaning about a lack of snow in their area because we  don't know if anyone is going to get some. Fwiw, imo we have moved closer to an easterly  this morning but not really worth trying to back it up as there is a counter argument. Going to have to be patient and await when they all agree which should be in the next 48 hrs.

[london-snow]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

So we have collected the ukmo overnight on our quest for the accelerated cold easterly. We seem to have lost the gefs which are a bit saggy on the high until day 8/9. anyway, this dropping scandi upper low recurving sw has been an obvious option for the  big boys for several days. Ecm op steadfastly resusing to embrace it in one go. Be interesting to see how big the cluster on it remains in about an hour. the ukmo 00z run could simply  be the last hurrah on it before it disappears or it could become adopted by ecm and gfs later today. The eps spreads will tell us a bit more but the way the gefs have gone awol on it getting much west of  Poland this morning is a concern at such a short range.

week 2 gefs look ok. Perhaps a bit less emphasis on greeny blocking* and more on the Siberian trough extending sw into the developing broad sceuro trough

Fwiw ba some of the more ‘lesser suites’ going the same way as ukmo this morning, ?

[Seasonality]

45 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

not really it doesnt matter tbh - what do you think the vefirication is going to be for the next 10 days based on the last 5 days modelling for europe because it certainly wont be the ECM

  - no need for data- just the fact that UKMOhas completely followed the IKONS outputs today & now at 96 the ECM is edging closer---

S

Well now, Steve, I would've thought you'd know better than to rely on one run (and I know you do!). Fun is fun and ramping is ramping but UKMO & IKON vs GFS & ECM isn't quids in for cold. And yes, facts and science do matter when predicting the weather (and I know you know that too).

Edited February 15, 2018 by Seasonality

[Seasonality]

2 minutes ago, london-snow said:

Fwiw ba some of the more ‘lesser suites’ going the same way as ukmo this morning, ?

Lesser suites or lesser models?

[Banbury]

^^^^^^

Do you really think GFS and ECM are side by side Seasonality?

Edited February 15, 2018 by Banbury

[london-snow]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Lesser suites or lesser models?

Models I do beg my pardon ?