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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Just another, very plausible, variation on the theme mid-term. Will change again. No need to fret. Continental airmass by mid next week still and ripe for retrogression

GFSOPNH12_192_1.thumb.png.64d9f4af89a64e6a74dedee934756f05.png.

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The gem looks fine to me with height's going into Greenland,people are quick to shoot a run down when it's not even finished:)

gemnh-0-240.png?12

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I sense the GFS is going to completely bypass the Scandi High this time and go straight for a Greenland High

gfsnh-0-198.png?12

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GEM holds its nerve with the first bout of WAA at day 6. Ukmo more positively tilted. Gfs - not going to lose sleep on inter run changes from gfs re the northern arm. 

Gem evolves very much like the eps mean from the 00z run. 

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This thread when there's cold on the cards :D

Anyway, short-term it's not as good as the 0z or 6z however a very good chart at 192 with heights shooting up to Iceland, this should start to drag in the cold from the east.

gfsnh-0-198.png?12

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The 12z run so different from the 06z in the earlier stages, therefore not much confidence in what it is showing although it will probably show what most poster want to see in the extended and FI range.

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The GFS seems to come out slower when it's a downgrade.  A bit like making you wait longer for a dental appointment.

It looks like it's gaining amplitude as we leave the low resolution stage. Maybe we are seeing the oscillation between two potential solutions?

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npsh500.png

Never mind the surface weather in the UK - this is an extraordinarily wacky pattern for just over a week's time.

It does make the model look rather confused though :crazy:.

Taking a short break - hoping to see the ridge taken NNW and link with the Arctic High while the trough by Svalbard drops S then W a bit. If not, never mind, it's GFS :p

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This is a good run still first let’s see where it fits, we may need to be patient initially it is likely to be dry. But them heights are going polewards they’re certain not to sink. Cold air plunging into Eastern Europe. 

FC90EEDD-68A9-4EC1-AF1C-30BD3B95F952.thumb.png.2b7e44690c78d6a4f1daba13f2d9232a.pngEE7F1C0F-013B-47A7-AA83-5E02FE22A94E.thumb.png.572125bcdd4170678a5ad9c3d5b3e390.png

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10 minutes ago, Singularity said:

npsh500.png npsh500.png

While it's still making progress toward a similar outcome (trough breaking down, some of it likely headed for W. Asia with blocking to N of it), this run is a bit out of kilter with the other models terms of how much the Atlantic trough advances NE days 4-6, so is worth viewing with high(er than usual) suspicion.

It's pretty much a reversion to the 00z run, which was followed by the quicker 06z run (in terms of cold air arrival from east).

 

UN144-21.GIF?13-17

Here's UKMO top-down at day 6. Looks alright when taking into account the fact that the focus of heights is ready to shift from SW to NE of the UK - but true to say, it could easily have been better with the shape of the Atlantic trough.

UKMO does not look alright to me I have to say. Ridge overrun by Atlantic trough so no chance of the ridge building through Iceland or into high enough latitude to bring an Easterly a la ECM 00z.

Same as GFS we would have to hope the Atlantic reamplified and have another shot at it.

That said I do agree GFS looks suspicious with its handling of the trough and UKMO 120 to 144 looks very suspect also.

Wouldn't be surprised if ECM stuck to its guns.

Just a case of wait and see isn't it?

 

 

Edited by Mucka

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Just now, Mucka said:

UKMO does not look alright to me I have to say. Ridge overrun by Atlantic trough so no chance of the ridge building through Iceland or into high enough latitude to bring an Easterly a la ECM 00z.

Same as GFS we would have to hope the Atlantic reamplified and have another shot at it.

That said I do agree GFS looks suspicious with its handling of the trough and UKMO 120 to 144 looks very suspect also.

Just a case of wait and see isn't it?

 

 

 Would be interesting to see what the FAX charts make of the raw UKMO data.

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Just now, Mucka said:

UKMO does not look alright to me I have to say. Ridge overrun by Atlantic trough so no chance of the ridge building through Iceland or into high enough latitude to bring an Easterly a la ECM 00z.

Same as GFS we would have to hope the Atlantic reamplified and have another shot at it.

That said I do agree GFS looks suspicious with its handling of the trough and UKMO 120 to 144 looks very suspect also.

Just a case of wait and see isn't it?

 

 

It's all suspicious to me at the moment Mucka. The models are moving through solutions quicker than an express train atm. No consistency in the D6-D10 period at all.

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the block is still there, we'll see a good few variations on this theme for a while.

gfsnh-0-222.thumb.png.c3fc3eb1637f88ca0e9350bde246a709.png

fe90938e2a8047df7f80f22db61e0813826f1d4cfea345b3dc5ac525451e4755.thumb.png.ac50ff5c696304c8bec1bca21cf325da.png

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Looks like Lo-res has had enough of Hi-res dilly dallying about and is pointing the way

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Not that it will turn out like this, but a good demonstration of how a lot of mild air can get into to the pattern if a low stalls to our SW

gfs-1-264.png?12

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gfs-0-240.png?12

It's only going one way from here, just a slower evolution

For those saying its being pushed back all the time, well it was brought forward today. Just the usual back and forth

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1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

Looks like Lo-res has had enough of Hi-res dilly dallying about and is pointing the way

Exactly, at 264h the high is saying 'Sod this for a laugh, I'm off to Svalbard!'

gfsnh-0-264.png

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1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

Looks like Lo-res has had enough of Hi-res dilly dallying about and is pointing the way

Yup stunning chart but if only it were 168 as looked plausible this morning and not 264!:wallbash:

gfsnh-0-264.png?12

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Not the best of starts to the evening outputs .

It looks like GFS op has picked out one of those horrible ensemble members and the UKMO is also flatter.

Without the trigger shortwave cutting back sw it’s going to be a more drawn out affair which just gives more time for another variable to pop up.

Very disappointing start and really after a more positive trend there’s no point trying to spin this as anything other than a crap start to the evening for coldies .

We await the ECM but it’s recent record is hardly glowing , even if that remains similar to this mornings run we now have to wait for tomorrow.

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2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Looks like Lo-res has had enough of Hi-res dilly dallying about and is pointing the way

You're not wrong, it's dragged out the drama but by 288 a big easterly incoming.  

gfsnh-0-288.png?12

Interested to see where this sits in the ensembles a little later.

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Not the best of starts to the evening outputs .

It looks like GFS op has picked out one of those horrible ensemble members and the UKMO is also flatter.

Without the trigger shortwave cutting back sw it’s going to be a more drawn out affair which just gives more time for another variable to pop up.

Very disappointing start and really after a more positive trend there’s no point trying to spin this as anything other than a crap start to the evening for coldies .

We await the ECM but it’s recent record is hardly glowing , even if that remains similar to this mornings run we now have to wait for tomorrow.

Regardless of what the runs show today we always have to wait till the next one.

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21 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

The cold air is obviously restricted further east on this run, then again it may just be a mild outlier or a rogue run. Lets see where it goes from here.

gfsnh-1-180.png

gfsnh-1-186.png

No....

As I mentioned in regards to the 6z, there was a huge amount of scatter in what is generally accepted to be the reliable in regards to just how that high pressure is placed.

It won't be an outliner. There will be many of ensembles showing something worse (from a cold lovers point of view in the UK), nirvana options, similar options and even a few mild ones to boot. All kicking off in the T120 or so range to T144, which then snow balls into something much bigger still within 10 days.

To the ensembles when they come out and don't get too caught up on Operation runs, when such huge variation is clearly observable.

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