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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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5 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup I'm concerned people are getting too carried away in here, that little low over Finland appeared again on the ECM at T72, it makes the westward flow of the Siberian cold pool less smooth, leaving the risk of pressure building over the UK instead with the really cold air on the other side of the channel. Remember the 00z yesterday?

Anyhow if its gone by this evening we should hopefully be able to rule that scenario out, though with the ECM showing that option represents 40% in the clusters it could very easily come to frution.

The 06z GFS didn't show the little Finland low however.

 

Sorry if I come across as a party pooper :p but it was overlooked. Despite the little Finland low however the cold still made it!

you're most certainly not being a party pooper but realistic. there are so many shortwaves popping up in the flow - no surprise given its depth of cold and instability, that a deflection nw could easily throw a spanner in the works at this timescale. we should be a little reassured that since the last time we saw a reverse flow in process, the models have increased in resolution so should be better at picking these up.  this is why I gave Thursday's 00z run as being the point of lift off for the deep cold to be a hit/miss. in the meantime, plenty to drool over, as long as cluster two takes a hike !

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9 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup I'm concerned people are getting too carried away in here, that little low over Finland appeared again on the ECM at T72, it makes the westward flow of the Siberian cold pool less smooth, leaving the risk of pressure building over the UK instead with the really cold air on the other side of the channel. Remember the 00z yesterday?

Anyhow if its gone by this evening we should hopefully be able to rule that scenario out, though with the ECM showing that option represents 40% in the clusters it could very easily come to frution.

The 06z GFS didn't show the little Finland low however.

 

Sorry if I come across as a party pooper :p but it was overlooked. Despite the little Finland low however the cold still made it!

So a little low over Finland is going to stop the retrogression of the upper high?

Delay and slightly divert the cold I can see but the pattern is backing west unless the jet takes a trip somewhere else.

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Ok, we're in the lull before the 12z's roll, so time to lock this and get a new thread going:

 

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