Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[winterof79]

Please don't get too hung up on precipitation charts for March as they won't be correct even  for next weekend onward yet Get the cold in and watch it evolve daily. The beeb will have to be on their metal to keep up with disturbances in the flow.

[Seasonality]

The 06z would see England and Wales buried in snow. Absolutely stonking output, if that did verify I could only imagine chaos, airports, roads, rail all severely disrupted. Just for entertainment value at that range but the cold and snow is relentless. Not ramping, truly historic spell if it came off. Monday morning commute for the first Monday of meteorological Spring here!!!

 

 

 

[radiohead]

3 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

A foot of snow in March !!! - Seriously??

It's possible. The biggest snowfall of the 20th Century in Ireland was on 1st April 1917. Up to 4.2ft of snow was recorded with drifts of almost 10ft.

[Deep Snow please]

6 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

A foot of snow in March !!! - Seriously??

Quite possibly. There was well over a foot at low levels in parts of the UK during that March 2013 cold snap.Drifting much higher.

[radiohead]

06Z GEFS mean is an upgrade on the 0Z. A more extensive and larger cold pool.

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

A foot of snow in March !!! - Seriously??

Why not? A foot of snow in April is not exactly unknown. . . 

[Guest Durham Weather]

16 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

A foot of snow in March !!! - Seriously??

Mid March 1979 springs to mind. Nearly 2ft then.

[snow freak]

6 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Quite possibly. There was well over a foot at low levels in parts of the UK during that March 2013 cold snap.Drifting much higher.

 

15 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

A foot of snow in March !!! - Seriously??

Why are you so surprised?  End of March 2013 was far colder and snowier than any of the preceding winter months of December January and February of that year.

 

[radiohead]

06Z GEFS mean has -8 uppers in the south way out at 288 hours. It showed -2 uppers there on the 0Z.

[Chesil View]

Just now, Turnedoutniceagain said:

A foot of snow in March !!! - Seriously??

yes seriously it has happened plenty of times before.

[Frosty.]

Not a bad looking GEFS 6z mean next week is it..nice retrogression going on there too with another blast from the NE.

[Youcan'tbecirrus]

45 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Slightly unexpected cluster on the ECM ensembles this morning:

Cluster 2 looks a touch more northerly than easterly. Won't stop it being cold but might change the longevity of the cold pool over the UK and the volume of snow that could be achieved.

Hmmm so we have this and signs from GFS that the Atlantic could get through by 8th March. If I have been reading correctly this seems at odds to what was being predicted before ie no end in sight to the cold reload after reload. All a long way off and there will be changes but the first signs of a wobble perhaps. If the ensembles are correct of course.  

[Purga]

Will we have enough cold air to tap into from the east?

Maybe just a tad...

Check out the very rare sub 492 dam pooling over Russia.

Amazing charts and difficult to single out the most awesome of the awesome.

Edited February 20, 2018 by Purga

[radiohead]

P17 is almost at 1987 levels.

[DIS1970]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Not a bad looking GEFS 6z mean next week is it..nice retrogression going on there too with another blast from the NE.

Are those 2ft daffs?

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

P17 is almost at 1987 levels.

Just needs that purple patch pushed up a few hundred miles and we're done. Plenty of time for it.

[Chesil View]

Just now, Turnedoutniceagain said:

A foot of snow in March !!! - Seriously??

yes seriously it has happened plenty of times before.

[Chesil View]

Milder runs gradually disappearing from the extended gfs ensembles on the 06z

[ScottishSnowStorm]

Fantastic GEFS 6z ens for here in fife the mean never getting above -5 even out to the end and a good number of runs still around the -10 mark  

Bring it on 

[Matthew Gill]

 just come across this windchill chart. Quite spectacular to see. 

Edited February 20, 2018 by Matthew Gill

[Rocheydub]

Thread title will change to something akin to "Cold spell, how cold and how long will it last" That's now copyrighted Mods!!! :-)

Steady as she goes on the 00z's and 06z runs. Subtle differences in arrival time, cold depth etc, all to be expected at this juncture. I'd imagine there will be more subtle changes (some good, some not so good) until T36 etc, but by then all the warnings will have been issued!

I have to go to Homebase today for a few bulbs etc, might look at their sleds and rock salt!

[Purga]

2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Milder runs gradually disappearing from the extended gfs ensembles on the 06z

Indeed, the mean is coming down and the cold is extending..

[Summer Sun]

Certainly less 'mild' runs on the 06z ens

00z

06z

[Met4Cast]

We’re on the cusp of an incredible cold spell - Full time jobs are a pain for watching the models come out but the updates in here have been awesome! 

EXM/GFS/UKMO & their ensembles remain solid, slight differences over timing but Monday-Wednesday is typically the range. 

Barring major changes over the next couple of days, we’re going to see some incredible weather. 

[tight isobar]

Just for balance...

Here are the aberdeen one's

WOW-...eye poping!!!

This spell looks very destructive/disruptive!!!!

@spectacular

6z

Edited February 20, 2018 by tight isobar