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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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2 minutes ago, Raythan said:

I’d love to know how these major cold spells were modeled , I mean was the signal that strong there were only minor ‘wobbles’ , how did 2010 go ? Drama or just solid with upgrades ? From what I read the met seen 2010 far out ?

Interesting question, I think a thread should be created so we can look back for future reference. It'd be a great way to remind ourselves how notable weather patterns evolve in the model output. :)

PS sorry mods if its off topic, I know its busy in here tonight.

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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

2010 was rock solid from the start. Intial thrust was overdone but other than that no drama. Indeed as time went by the models improved as they sniffed another block forming. Something to watch as we have had several bursts of strat warming.

I think the main worry here has to be that the modelling picks up a new signal which interferes with the QTR response of the SSW. By this I mean that the ongoing effects of the reversal may actually hinder what is already a pretty perfect set up. I believe that this has been highlighted as a risk factor before. If the modelling is overlooking strat effects that are yet to be filtered into the modelling then this is a potential issue. 

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Just a nagging doubt, the coldest weather is over a week away, we saw on a couple of ecm runs three exists the possibility of the coldest air going south.  Is it likely the models will show today's charts again and again for 7 days.   I know an easterly is nailed on, but at 7 days there is surely still doubt about the severity? 

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Remaining  brilliant..

 

And the 'goat horn' shape is eroding!!

...great set of ens there!

London 18z set.

MT8_London_ens (1).png

Edited by tight isobar
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1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

cold cone

That’s brilliant , wonder if the more knowledgeable peeps on here would dare do a crayon job and draw a cold cone for possible projection 

 

2 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

hurricane graph

 

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We had an incredible Easterly back then in Yorkshire what were the 850's and thicknesses anyone? Just for comparison of convection?

For 2010 i mean....

Edited by inghams85

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7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I think the main worry here has to be that the modelling picks up a new signal which interferes with the QTR response of the SSW. By this I mean that the ongoing effects of the reversal may actually hinder what is already a pretty perfect set up. I believe that this has been highlighted as a risk factor before. If the modelling is overlooking strat effects that are yet to be filtered into the modelling then this is a potential issue. 

I think that's a very fair point.  The SSW has had a significant and violent impact on the entire northern hemisphere weather patterns, so maybe there's more that aren't yet visible to the models.  However, I think if we can get through tomorrow with only minor changes we can be fairly confident that the models are converging on the correct solution.  As I said earlier though, 72 hours for an easterly is what I'm working to before the family get told!

Edited by Ice Day
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I think the main worry here has to be that the modelling picks up a new signal which interferes with the QTR response of the SSW. By this I mean that the ongoing effects of the reversal may actually hinder what is already a pretty perfect set up. I believe that this has been highlighted as a risk factor before. If the modelling is overlooking strat effects that are yet to be filtered into the modelling then this is a potential issue. 

yep apart from the shortwave shown on 3 ensembles which comes west from Belarus/poland and then north west through our block allowing attacks from the south west.

the only other thing I can think of is the SSW is still under modelled and block shoots to Greenland and further before the cold comes in but seeing we haven't really seen that on any model yet I think it is very small chance

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16 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Funny you should mention that (in jest) because my theory is that the ice ages started with events in the mid latitudes i.e greater outpouring of cold instances from the higher latitudes. Suppose that is for another thread though!

Crewe ...

How about coming into my spider's den over on the other forum.... :nonono:

Seriously though the bitter cold winters of 1695-7  are believed to have very similar synoptics, and occurred at the very bottom of Maunder Minimum sun spot period. The difference was that they started in January.

I once saw a 'probable' pattern for the atmospheric pattern that someone constructed of  the time, and from the data  available,  and it looked just like T200 - T300 on todays GFS run.

Truly amazong run! 

Midlands Ice Age

:nonono::cold::D

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Just now, Ice Day said:

I think that's a very fair point.  The SSW has had a significant nnd violent impact on the entire northern hemisphere weather patterns, so maybe there's more that aren't yet visible to the models.  However, I think if we can get through tomorrow with only minor changes we can be fairly confident that the models are converging on the correct solution.  As I said earlier though, 72 hours for an easterly is what I'm working to before the family get told!

Agreed.

I always see the models struggle so much when it comes to eastern dominated weather patterns. The constant western data just meddles with it.

Its always wanting to go back to the Atlantic and after a while, after some days of data, it finally comes true (I see this on all models every year)

I personally think it holds true with any shortwaves and any return to the Atlantic, It takes a few runs to get that going again

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1 minute ago, pages said:

the only other thing I can think of is the SSW is still under modelled and block shoots to Greenland and further before the cold comes in but seeing we haven't really seen that on any model yet I think it is very small chance

Yes, that is what I'm thinking if a spoiler was to occur.

A low probability on modelling at present but 24 hours is a long time in meteorology!

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7 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Remaining  brilliant..

 

And the 'goat horn' shape is eroding!!

...great set of ens there!

London 18z set.

MT8_London_ens (1).png

Oh no I don't like the look of those mild runs :closedeyes:

Anyway reloaad alert!

image.thumb.png.d74ba87a6ec5657ab8c9e474bfcd02ff.pngimage.thumb.png.4fee364e0d36c172a69fff26e5d331d8.png

:yahoo:

PS: I'm knackered G;Nite...

 

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3 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

I'm here - been working and have also had to pick myself off the floor after checking the 12Z.

Best ever trop response that we have been able to track following a SSW, oh those of little faith lol.

I did think of buying all the snow shovels and salt in B&Q yesterday and then selling it back to them next weekend....

I have been convinced of an epic cold spell for a long time now (since before the split but my resolute belief was reinforced when I saw the residual Hudson Bay daughter vortex getting taken down).

It may have taken the best part of 10 years but finally we are seeing the makings of an epic spell when you take the strat vortex out of the equation. Even @TEITS may finally have to concede that there is something in this teleconnections Malarkey!

I want to pay my respects to Chionomaniac, who has tried so long to bring the effects of a SSW on the tropospheric conditions to attention!

We are currently seeing what that means! CHIO gave the first signals on the stratosphere thread and: Yes, we are seeing an incredible SSW and we are seeing incredible tropospherical response. Let us remember how long it took for the models to take a grasp on this and, certainly with this kind of events, Keep the eyes on the large-scale movements when SSW events occur and a lot off uncertainty from models wil take a place!

 

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I don’t buy the only way is downgrades from here, in fact I see good broad consistency emerging and a reconsolidation this cold spell means serious business. This is unparalleled we can’t look to the past, as nothing at least in internet age has occurred like this. The quite extreme synoptics actually many have there unique flair to them, I haven’t seen anything like it the archives. It’s really a pleasure to watch unfold, too often we coldies are really thrown about like dirt,  every once and while we get a break! despite how helpless it looks getting in a long rut - this break is it IMO. The wretched M4 corridor its end is soon to come. :p 

Edited by Daniel*

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just when we had cross model agreement 1 had to go a different way at least its only Navgem and we will know if its wrong by morning as it loses plot before T- 72 with a much shallower feature south of Greenland so less WAA going north.

navgemnh-0-72.png?20-00

which means less robust heights to north resulting in shortwave going across Svalbard at 156hr.

navgemnh-0-156.png?20-00

then causes block to be ridiculously further south at 180

navgem-0-180.png?20-00

pretty confident its wrong as its Navgem plus not even one ensemble did this but then again with the SSW maybe the vortex is running out of steam quicker and there won't be a 975 low to south of Greenland at  72hr like on ever other model. while its showing however remote we aren't home and hosed yet.

plus both JMA 18z & Icon 18Z have the low along with the 18Z so 3v1 against the Navgem. its worse model than all of them 3 so shouldn't be nervous.

Jma-J72-21.GIF?20-18

Icon-icon-0-72.png?19-18

 

GFS-gfs-0-72.png?18

 

Edited by pages

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1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

Some would assume, im watching the most 'emotional ever' movie unfold...

But i'd have great difficulty explaining otherwise...why i have tears in my eyes!! 😢😂😉😂😢😂

gfs-0-186.png

You're not alone TI, I've just seen your chart, swigged back a large vodka and missed my mouth...🤤 Eyes are stinging but still in euphoria 😉

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The ECM trend for Monday 12Z is more progressive now with bringing the cold in quicker

ecmwf_T850_eu_fh168_trend.gif

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19 minutes ago, Purga said:

Oh no I don't like the look of those mild runs :closedeyes:

Anyway reloaad alert!

image.thumb.png.d74ba87a6ec5657ab8c9e474bfcd02ff.pngimage.thumb.png.4fee364e0d36c172a69fff26e5d331d8.png

:yahoo:

PS: I'm knackered G;Nite...

 

 

19 minutes ago, Purga said:

Oh no I don't like the look of those mild runs :closedeyes:

Anyway reloaad alert!

image.thumb.png.d74ba87a6ec5657ab8c9e474bfcd02ff.pngimage.thumb.png.4fee364e0d36c172a69fff26e5d331d8.png

:yahoo:

PS: I'm knackered G;Nite...

 

Trying to substantiate-between ops/ens will -kill you slowly.

although support is in -its initial stages ...moving forwards

We can see the gfs wants to 'revert' to type, and format the basing of mobile-zonal influence.

However- the reversal- and atm strat warm...will have implication.

Any' retro/or height align..will have a say.

And to undo a shoe'lace..is a complex matter..as every anti-basing is a baby new born...

Aka strat warm- reverse zonal, ..

Massive suites coming up.

And the supporting data will likely become the lead man...!

gfs-0-288.png

MT8_London_ens (1).png

Edited by tight isobar

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If the ECM snow accumulation charts don't factor in convective snow then I'm actually quite worried about the severity, from the charts below.

Luckily I've been prepared for about 8yrs for a really bad spell, grit wise, but I do panic that local councils are not and I know my car is not up even with new all season tyres. I love the snow and live in a lucky area, looking for my 26th day of snow, but I have to say from the current  models, I think the East of the country could be seriously affected as there really seems no end in sight from some  models. Let's get ready to Rumble ❄ ❄

S80220-00075975.jpg

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On 16/02/2018 at 10:30, ajpoolshark said:

*stop press*

*Weather Agencies upgrade models due to SSW*

Big news today folks as the major weather agencies proudly announce 3 new super models......Heide Klum, Cindy Crawford, & Ellie Macpherson....A spokesperson at met office was quoted as saying "in this current volatile climate, we feel that these 3 new super models will give us our best chance of resolving the SSW dilemma, we have faith that Heide, Cindy & Ellie can take our knowledge to a new level and besides, it'll make the office calanders look far more attractive".........Asked why the UKMO, GFS & ECM hve been dropped, he replied, "after viewing the overnight outputs all our senior forecasters can think of is white powder, flip flops & prozac"

well, that's my take on the current model outputs folks, it's a mess, but joking aside, quite a few pro's have been tweeting for quite a few days to take all output with a pinch of salt, FI's at T96 IMHO, have a lovely day!

*Stop Press*

*Announcement from the Weather Agencies*

"After careful consideration, we have decided to relieve Heide, Cindy & Ellie from their new posts and have replaced these ageing relics with four new super super-models, the GFS, ECM, UKMO & ICON.....Our senior forecasters agreed unanimously that this... viewimage.thumb.png.485475026873e78d2d0927bba99dc427.png is far more attractive for the office calendars than this.... images.jpg.aa03a52cfb9c3040d82b529406378a5d.jpg"

 

yes folks, I do believe I have just 'ramped' :snowman-emoji:

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The CPC NAO/AO worthy of a BOOM:bomb::bomb::bomb:,not one straggler in there:D

nao.sprd2.gifao.sprd2.gif

full retrograde of height's pushing into Greenland with a re-load from the N/NE possible,what do you call that train from the Atlantic,Oh!!!,zonal,what is that!!!

610day.03.gif814day.03.gif

De-built temps,dewpoints and wind direction all prelonging the cold and those easterly trades have gained since yesterday too

eps_pluim_tt_06260.pngeps_pluim_td_06260.pngeps_pluim_dd_06260.png

i am still on the fence though,has anyone got a time machine:D

1200px-TeamTimeCar.com-BTTF_DeLorean_Tim

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Latest 120 hour fax chart for noon Saturday.....Scandi high flexing its muscles....strengthening easterly wind.....bitter cold spreading westwards over Europe.....destination British Isles.....Its coming 

Screenshot_20180220-002605.png

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Oh get lost!

this is taking the mick now,means at 180,240

gensnh-21-1-180.pnggensnh-21-1-240.png?18

we could be looking at a memorable winter 2018 here matching the historical events of 1947,63,81,87 and 91

and i am getting quiet worried.

sorry i am late to the party,just finished work,it's just took me a good 2 hours reading the posts from 2pm lol.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Oh get lost!

this is taking the mick now,means at 180,240

gensnh-21-1-180.pnggensnh-21-1-240.png?18

we could be looking at a memorable winter 2018 here matching the historical events of 1947,63,81,87 and 91

and i am getting quiet worried.

Two brilliant mean charts....the 240hr is exceptional as although the high retrogresses to Greenland we are still in a flow east of north with continued injection of cold uppers ..... continuing risk of more widespread snow in this scenario versus a straight northerly .....we couldn't ask for any better really.

 

Edited by Bottled Snow
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