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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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You have to go back to 1991 to find comparable cold to that which is shown on the 18Z. There has never been something like this in the Internet era or era of modern computer models.

The 18Z GFS gets to within about 1 degree of that event.

1991:

archivesuk-1991-2-7-6-1.png

18Z GFS

180-7UK.GIF?19-18

 

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I

3 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

What a crap run, gets really mild towards the end.

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

It's ok mate the colds coming back at day 16 😁

IMG_1639.PNG

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Don't you just hate it when the real cold is stuck out in low res at 384...

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.059ee82d5030fb52004f5b60a085a97e.png

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4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Frankly - no it cant. Easterly convection followed by channel low followed by polar low is a combination Ali would have prized. I'm not sure it has ever happened (where's @Retron when you need him?) and perhaps this is the point at which we have to accept some downgrades will come. I just cant quite believe that such a spread is actually out there on the table.

It's a long way out in microforecasting terms. But if it comes off I think I wont see an event like this again in my lifetime - and the UK would grind to a halt as per 1963. It would perhaps not break cold records... but when you are looking at frontal and convective snow frankly it doesnt matter if its 1 degree, -2 degrees or -5 degrees. It's white, it will stick, and it doesnt look like it will melt any time soon after.

Bah. 5 more days of this is going to slaughter me. @snowking is right. Somehow we need a period of calm, but the modelling seems intent on maintaining high blood pressure for a week at least.

Tomorrow I'm off to buy beans, bread and chocolate. Could live for weeks on that.

 

As my name suggests I'm a serious fan of snow and cold, but I think even I might baulk at the risk showing up on this run at T+372 that snow and cold may return from the north before the first lot - copious amounts - has melted. It's bonkers. We're getting dangerously far into "fantasy synoptics" land here. We have to prepare for downgrades now as you point out. 

 

Charts from the past week are going to be saved on memory sticks across the country right now but as you say Easterly Convection - Channel low - Polar low would be prized by any, and now there's a sort of northerly at the end! 

 

Wow. Simply. Wow.

Edited by Deep Snow please
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1 minute ago, lorenzo said:

Don't you just hate it when the real cold is stuck out in low res at 384...

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.059ee82d5030fb52004f5b60a085a97e.png

And associated 2 foot of snow :p

uksnowdepth.png

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Unsure 

heres the 87/91 clipping from TWO - see max temp bit

DFFCEE7C-8E39-48AC-AEA6-106A170DAB54.thumb.jpeg.95ecd0907e36f1e2dfd8dafced5913e4.jpeg

Well I lived in that tiny little village on top of the downs and witnessed January 1987 first hand... then February 1991 in the same location. I’ve  been in love with Easterlies ever since... 

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11 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Weather of this severity in our country could cause a national grid failure. There will be excessive demand for electric heating and massive mechanical stresses in the lines.

I expect the METO will be pening the cold weather alert. We already have a level 1.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

Yes, my friends and people who know me on here are aware I love cold and snow. It's seriously exciting to see extreme weather but if the GFS came off I would be genuinely worried.

Worried for the homeless, elderly, infrastructure and energy demand. I hope we are well prepared if such a scenario as extreme as this unfolds. I think its so anomalous it's low chance (getting the perfect Greenland high like that and record -NAO) but with the record SSW it can't be ruled out. Every run redifines what we call perfection at the moment in terms of cold weather synoptics.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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You gotta love the two day snow storm for Northern England as the sign off.

gfsnh-2-384.png?18

 

I can see people beginning to flag in their search for a superlative to describe the output so here isa  handy list to keep us going over the next few days

excellent, magnificent, wonderful, glorious, marvellous, brilliant, supreme, consummate, outstanding, prodigious, dazzling, remarkable, formidable, fine, choice, sterling, first-rate, first-class, of the first water, of the first order, of the highest order, premier, prime, unsurpassed, unequalled, unparalleled, unrivalled, unbeatable, peerless, matchless, singular, unique, transcendent, best, greatest, worthiest, pre-eminent, perfect, faultless, flawless; informalcrack, ace, stellar, wicked, 

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if 

2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

What a crap run, gets really mild towards the end.

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

only a blip look at 384 another major snow event

gfsnh-0-384.png?18

if this run verified from now to t-324 I think everybody would be praying for the 50 hour warmer blip to actually be a full breakdown  as we would all have already lost a weeks work, and the country would be crippled. Ridiculous run.

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9 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Does anyone have an estimate of snow depth for different parts of the country on that run? Must be measuring in feet surely pretty much anywhere?

Snow depth chart for GFS in cm

image.png

Edited by WalsallWeather123

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37 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Some would assume, im watching the most 'emotional ever' movie unfold...

But i'd have great difficulty explaining otherwise...why i have tears in my eyes!! 😢😂😉😂😢😂

gfs-0-186.png

Seriously, how many more times do I need to replace my screensaver?! 😂

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By my maths, we have the following 850 temps somewhere over the UK from 132

-8's - 252 hours

-10's - 174 hours

-12's - 84 hours

-14's (or lower) - 60 hours

This would be historic cold.  I must admit, elation gave way to a little trepidation looking at that run and I was glad when the severe cold lifted a little.  I really don't want to over-hype but if this run or the earlier ECM is on the money, there could be a seriously chaotic situation in front of us.

 

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Well, i’m not sure I can keep quiet anymore! Is there some kind of helpline I can ring??!! I’m sat her chuckling to myself, the wife thinks I’m mad! For me, needs to get inside t120 but blimey....... #bestchartsever! 😂😂

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

And associated 2 foot of snow :p

uksnowdepth.png

I’m in the blue zone 

so it was nice knowing you guys/ girls 

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7 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Frankly - no it cant. Easterly convection followed by channel low followed by polar low is a combination Ali would have prized. I'm not sure it has ever happened (where's @Retron when you need him?) and perhaps this is the point at which we have to accept some downgrades will come. I just cant quite believe that such a spread is actually out there on the table.

It's a long way out in microforecasting terms. But if it comes off I think I wont see an event like this again in my lifetime - and the UK would grind to a halt as per 1963. It would perhaps not break cold records... but when you are looking at frontal and convective snow frankly it doesnt matter if its 1 degree, -2 degrees or -5 degrees. It's white, it will stick, and it doesnt look like it will melt any time soon after.

Bah. 5 more days of this is going to slaughter me. @snowking is right. Somehow we need a period of calm, but the modelling seems intent on maintaining high blood pressure for a week at least.

Tomorrow I'm off to buy beans, bread and chocolate. Could live for weeks on that.

 

 

1 minute ago, pages said:

if 

only a blip look at 384 another major snow event

gfsnh-0-384.png?18

if this run verified from now to t-324 I think everybody would be praying for the 50 hour warmer blip to actually be a full breakdown  as we would all have already lost a weeks work, and the country would be crippled. Ridiculous run.

Yup, our country simply isn't set up to deal with that sort of weather at all. Would be mental. 

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If the ECM 18Z was stellar...we've just gone interstellar.

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The models are throwing out gold medal runs--therefore we must expect a few silver and bronze ones over the next days. Surely they can't remain like this for the next 5 days or so!!!

With regard to snow amounts, this will be an exercise of radar watching on the day. No point in forecasting ahead.

Hoping to bring the snow shovel into use next week

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Tonight's 18Z was the first time I saw a run and actually shook by the end of it ... the cold is unbelievable.

Looking generally at the extended, T300 on the EPS, note the centre of the high pressure is a long way from us, but the mean uppers are still below minus 8 (!)

ec-ens_millikort_mslpmean_t850mean_t850s

There's a lot of very cold and snowy runs in there, but exactly what the synoptics will be, a mystery. Still a danger of a backdoor west based NAO. Not the most likely route - that's definitely the cold route - but I'm not as confident on the continuation of the cold as I was with the initial easterly.

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2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

 

Yup, our country simply isn't set up to deal with that sort of weather at all. Would be mental. 

Scotland is, my friend.

Edited by Mildcarlisle
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2 minutes ago, Big Snow said:

If the ECM 18Z was stellar...we've just gone interstellar.

Do you know something we don't???

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8 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

I' convinced it's a BOT. Really random wording most of the time from tight isobar which literally never makes any sense.

Ok goat man!!

Give us a 'quote'that makes any sense for model/meteorological insight!!.

And i'll gladly elaborate on any scale of the ^above^..

I *await* your analysis...for compare!!

@i convinced...

'Correction' Im convinced..

People in glass houses !!!

Edited by tight isobar
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There are simply no words to describe these runs. Netweather synoptic heaven. It cannot get better than this. If this goes the way of the pear then Arsenal Fan TV will have a new airtime rival in this place!

edit: the control. Hold my beer at 156 please. 

 

649E9AFE-965F-4185-B3D9-7012E25FB8E8.png

Edited by ITSY
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