Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[TEITS]

3 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

I'm here - been working and have also had to pick myself off the floor after checking the 12Z.

Best ever trop response that we have been able to track following a SSW, oh those of little faith lol.

I did think of buying all the snow shovels and salt in B&Q yesterday and then selling it back to them next weekend....

I have been convinced of an epic cold spell for a long time now (since before the split but my resolute belief was reinforced when I saw the residual Hudson Bay daughter vortex getting taken down).

It may have taken the best part of 10 years but finally we are seeing the makings of an epic spell when you take the strat vortex out of the equation. Even @TEITS may finally have to concede that there is something in this teleconnections Malarkey!

Maybe you should read some of my posts then. I made reference to the SSW only this morning.

[Chris101]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Spot the difference between the mean and the op at 138..

OP

Mean

Every. Single. Ensemble member goes all in. Every. Single. One.

Check it again and make sure there's not THAT one hiding in there somewhere.

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM Clusters T144: 2 of the 4 clusters bring in the cold even quicker than the ECM op.

What a day.

Phenomenal day!!!

and we see the magic -10c appear on the ens - some members surpass it!! ?

Fantastic stuff!!

Edited February 19, 2018 by karlos1983

[Froze were the Days]

5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Spot the difference between the mean and the op at 138..

OP

Mean

Every. Single. Ensemble member goes all in. Every. Single. One.

Have to totally disagree with you...Perb 7 looks a bit 'iffy'  other than that very encouraging! 

[Deep Snow please]

3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

There's no doubt about it. Imminent power failures for many and utter chaos will pursue if this 18z does happen. 

Whats even worse, people like myself have never experienced a true proper blizzard not seen since the likes of 87,91,63 or 78! 

I pray for everyone to stay safe and get stocked up with essentials. I'm trying not to get carried away here, but this really might be the big event that's been so long overdue. The even more frightening prospect, is that this thing is being actually upgraded run by run. 

I'm not sure it can be upgraded. And I'm not sure I want to find out how it can. 

Dear GFS. Keep at this - no downgrades, no upgrades. Just this. Cheers. Netweather Coldies.

[Derecho]

5 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

There's no doubt about it. Imminent power failures for many and utter chaos will pursue if this 18z does happen. 

Whats even worse, people like myself have never experienced a true proper blizzard not seen since the likes of 87,91,63 or 78! 

I pray for everyone to stay safe and get stocked up with essentials. I'm trying not to get carried away here, but this really might be the big event that's been so long overdue. The even more frightening prospect, is that this thing is being actually upgraded run by run. 

Indeed, can we get something that extreme though, I mean its not as though a League One side like Wigan could beat Man City at the moment... or heaven forbid Leicester City winning the premiership title... 

I think the cold spell would go down in folklore if it transpired and it would highlight how fragile our infrastructure is.

Edited February 19, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[Djdazzle]

Amazing output. Maybe just this once we won’t be denied.

[Ice Day]

This is the 180 hour mean.  I'll repeat that, this is 180 hour mean

 

 

[Catacol]

I'm going to try and switch off from this now... but my parting thought tonight is that we are getting further upgrades because the models are still playing catch up with the effects of the SSW. I cant think of any other reason than this... and the reality is that the reversal is forecast to remain in place for a further 9 days. What does this mean? I'm not entirely sure - but maybe this is how the last ice age started. 

Until tomorrow. In the future are people going to talk about 1947, 1963 and 2018?

[Rocheydub]

2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

He said it’s going to get very cold and snowy.

In what language?

Anyway it doesn't get much better than these charts. There may be some downgrades, but even if they come, the current synoptics are soooo damned good, it will still be a bitterly cold snowy event!

[ScottishSnowStorm]

2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

I'm not sure it can be upgraded. And I'm not sure I want to find out how it can. 

Dear GFS. Keep at this - no downgrades, no upgrades. Just this. Cheers. Netweather Coldies.

Only upgrade from here would be the whole bank of coldest u uppers moving from eastern siberia directly into europe

[ITSY]

Almost want to cry! Near gale force easterlies, sub-16 uppers across all of southern england. It’s like watching your team winning the league. Can a hobby payoff in such a mental manner? I pray so! 

[Smiler1709]

just spoke to my mate from council and blew every chance of this cold coming when I said it's going to get cold. what he told me next has sort of put my mind at rest considering if we are going to have this cold spell. All he said was the high ways lads (gritters) are on double shifts from Saturday. i think this is actually going to happen. he didn't tell me any more because I interrupted his football ?

Cant believe what the GFS 18z has shown it looks great for all of us. ?

[SMU]

Yep the mean now out to 240 down to -8c so when you see the ENS graph its going to be sub -8c for at least 6 days etc etc

The upgrades are extending well into the 200s now with the formidable Greenland block....

[ZK099]

Just now, Catacol said:

I'm going to try and switch off from this now... but my parting thought tonight is that we are getting further upgrades because the models are still playing catch up with the effects of the SSW. I cant think of any other reason than this... and the reality is that the reversal is forecast to remain in place for a further 9 days. What does this mean? I'm not entirely sure - but maybe this is how the last ice age started. 

Until tomorrow. In the future are people going to talk about 1947, 1963 and 2018?

Yes, especially the second warming over Hudson Bay. That only occurred two days ago so the models are still playing catch up. Record SSW with favourable split, favourable huge MJO pulse, low solar output. Literally perfect for a proper Scandinavian high which is what we're seeing being modelled 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Catacol said:

I'm going to try and switch off from this now... but my parting thought tonight is that we are getting further upgrades because the models are still playing catch up with the effects of the SSW. I cant think of any other reason than this... and the reality is that the reversal is forecast to remain in place for a further 9 days. What does this mean? I'm not entirely sure - but maybe this is how the last ice age started. 

Until tomorrow. In the future are people going to talk about 1947, 1963 and 2018?

Funny you should mention that (in jest) because my theory is that the ice ages started with events in the mid latitudes i.e greater outpouring of cold instances from the higher latitudes. Suppose that is for another thread though!

[Southender]

So what day this week can we be confident of these cobra runs actually coming off? Fri/Sat or are the building blocks in earlier than that?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Indeed, can we get something that extreme though, I mean its not as though a League One side like Wigan could beat Man City at the moment... or heaven forbid Leicester City winning the premiership title... 

I think the cold spell would go down in folklore if it transpired and it would highlight how fragile our infrastructure is.

The closest I've came to witnessing something remarkable, was when I was on the south coast on the 11th March 2013. It was non stop powder snow driven on by what was the coldest wind I've ever felt in my life, bear in mind I've been in New York during new year! And what was seen in the Channel Islands and extreme southeast was incredible. That was achieved by uppers of -12 and a cold pool about half the size of what is being forecast. Exciting, but in reality, very daunting. 

[inghams85]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Phenomenal day!!!

and we see the magic -10c appear on the ens - some members surpass it!! ?

Fantastic stuff!!

What on earth at that range could produce them temperatures at that range? Anyone? At 300+ hours what sort of crazy reload is that....

[Met4Cast]

We're at the point now where we have a solid GFS ensemble suite and a solid ECM ensemble suite and presumably given Met outlooks that if this does suddenly implode and the cold goes elsewhere, the models may as well be binned because they would have proven themselves completely and utterly useless. 

I struggle to believe entire ensemble suites from the worlds top performing models would be that wrong given the timescales. Given that, I'm declaring it safe to tell families/facebook.

[SMU]

Just now, Southender said:

So what day this week can we be confident of these cobra runs actually coming off? Fri/Sat or are the building blocks in earlier than that?

Cold due Sun AM - therefor banked Thurs 12z for 100% security but Weds 12s will still be a strong signal 80-90% if no change-

[ALL ABOARD]

Maybe we can have one more upgrade for longevity before bed. 

 

I give you the control. 

 

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by ALL ABOARD

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

We're at the point now where we have a solid GFS ensemble suite and a solid ECM ensemble suite and presumably given Met outlooks that if this does suddenly implode and the cold goes elsewhere, the models may as well be binned because they would have proven themselves completely and utterly useless. 

I struggle to believe entire ensemble suites from the worlds top performing models would be that wrong given the timescales. Given that, I'm declaring it safe to tell families/facebook.

I've seen model ensemble suites flip inside 96 hours...we're far from safe on this one!

Only another 3 days to be sure

Edited February 19, 2018 by CreweCold

[Ice Day]

Here are the short ensembles.  They don't really need any words

[pages]

6 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

I was just about to tuck into the ensembles.... You've saved me a journey, and wow. Just wow. It really is earth shatteringly beautiful. Thank you.

they are getting better its only numbers 2,8,9 now that bring that t-96 Belarus shortwave West causing the SW of our block to weaken and be attacked by the lows to south West. 

All other members now taking North east supporting the eastern end of our block and keeping the flow of cold uppers intact.

was 6 members bringing it West on the 12z so now halved to 3, firm up on extending the easterly. can we get a full house on the 0z.

All eyes between 86-120 on next couple of runs, as this the only way I can see that we don't extended spell. If we are sitting here at this time tomorrow with charts like the 18z GFS I think we can rest easy as surely it will have this shortwave nailed at T72 tomorrow night.