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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

I was just taking my Canadian Vortex out of the oven @snowking

Cook for one week at 10hPa it said.. 

 

5a8b52dfb05d5_canadianlobefried.thumb.png.97e5b4d44282212ce325f6878efec54b.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Anyone fancy a RELOAD!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock

this is unbelievable 

gfs-0-222.png?18

the low actually going to go East along the channel  result Southern blizzard all snow then as it moves off east the cold  uppers flood in again as they are reloaded from the NE for round 2.

gfsnh-1-222.png?18

Could we actually draw a better run than this?

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
4 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

 

Would that go north catacol or along the channel.

Fronts likely SW to NE.... though quite what the strong easterly flow would do to them as they move north is well beyond my microscale forecasting knowledge. Instability, pivoting and thundersnow?? Eeek. Someone with that level of skill help me out. I think the simple word from me would be carnage.

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Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

Anyone fancy a RELOAD!!!!

Oh go on then........

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Posted
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Heat, Thunderstorms
  • Location: OSLO, Norway

Truly astonishing charts at the moment, recorded an ice day in 2013 on the south coast so being two weeks earlier that isnt going to be a problem again now.

Look North-East, the frozen eagle is about to pounce again..

gfsnh-1-216_lun5.png

Looks like i've timed my return trip from snowy Oslo next wednesday perfectly!

Edited by -uksnow-
spelling :)
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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

59ED04BF-C9F6-4BC8-9816-552C51310460.thumb.png.1e6494ba65f5197ab7dcc07ecd698257.png

The Earth is spinning the other way!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Just in case the 18Z wasn't delivering enough, it throws the perfect channel low into the mix too. You couldn't make up a better run

Every time you see a run and you think you seen the best run possible, another rises to the challenge and smashes out the park. Seriously this IS the best run I've ever seen in my 14 years.

At this point even a big downgrade is still going to lead to one of the biggest cold shots of the 21st century.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Actually - you know what: if this image is being reflected in MOGREPS output then I'd fancy there are going to be some rather concerned folk down in Exeter. That system coming in from the south has undergone some fairly decent strengthening since being spawned off the parent lobe on Saturday

gfsnh-0-108.png?18

and given fairly southerly track on its loop to get here I'd suggest it might be pretty moisture laden. Is the south of England well enough equipped - both in terms of infrastructure and human psychology behind the wheel - to deal with a proper full on blizzard? How significant a snowfall would need to be on the horizon for there to be a red warning?

It's still a way off... and almost certain to change... but these kinds of scenarios could be seriously impactive. I love the snow... but I hope people heed any warnings that may be issued.

Thus- my alarm calls for planner-reorange, sync.

Truly @this stage the parameter alarms ARE NOISING!!

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Well we've had everything else, so why not a Polar Low (I'm sure someone will tell me it's not an official Polar Low)!!

gfsnh-0-252.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

OH... MY... GOD :bomb::shok:

Do I dare to dream that we are in the realms of something not seen since the likes of the start of 1963 here?! I've never seen a run like it.. Gobsmacked! 

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Wintry and stormy weather
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS maxes for London next week

Sun 0c

Mon -1c

Tues -3c

Weds -3c.  !!!!

Rural areas probs about 1-2 less tues / weds ( Stanstead was -8c on 12 jan 1987 in -20c air ) 

So -5 seems to be the landing zone...

Is that Stansted In Kent Steve? 

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Posted
  • Location: Amersham, Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Amersham, Buckinghamshire
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Thus- my alarm calls for planner-reorange, sync.

Truly @this stage the parameter alarms ARE NOISING!!

WTF??? does that mean?

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl

So going by this you've got blizzards nationwide over the course of a few days!

Channel low followed by polar low. Not to mention seriously cold temperatures. It can't get better than this, surely? 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Sorry to keep banging on. It is still going at T312 ?

IMG_1637.PNG

IMG_1638.PNG

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Epic doesn't do the Gfs 18z justice!!:cold::shok::D

I'm a bit worried about sidney..nah I'm not really!:whistling:

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18_204_uk2mtmpmin.png

18_204_mslp850.png

18_276_mslp850.png

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