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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

Well i am just having a nice glass of Malbec after going through the last ECM run.That is truly exceptional and whilst 18-24 hrs later in bringing the cold in than GFS it evolves with a 3-4 day Easterly with heavy snow showers/possibly prolonged snow in all Eastern areas penetrating into Central areas and then as the High Pressure moving across from Scandi to Iceland and then towards Greenland would give us a Northerly/North Easterly which would result in snow probably popping up anywhere in the UK..These synoptics are the best i have seen since December 2010(where i witnessed 18 inchs of snow in this part of NW Kent!!)and i sure would like the ECM show this as a trend in the next 48rs.It is amazing that the small differences and orientation of where a High pressure is can make a difference down the line.

I don't think you can better the ECM tonight and would take it every day of the week.So hope it is on the money.I can almost visualise the first snowflakes falling next Sunday night in the lights of the lampost outside my house lol!!

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Just now, bartlett high said:

Out of curiosity is there room for upgrades or are we pretty much at the point of pure perfection on current output?

ECM is there somewhat we could have a smooth transition into a Greenland high without any loss of cold or mild sectors. Would probably lead to something that would rival Dec 2010.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
1 hour ago, SN0W SN0W SN0W said:

Bad news, the WMC is having none of it:nonono:

wmc-0-120.png?18-00

Thankfully that's yesterdays 12z, if it was today's I would be very very worried as the WMC is one of the best performing models. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

So I just looked at the ECM 12z.

See yesterday when I was urging caution about the energy in the northern arm of the jet? Yeah? Ignore that! 

These are simply astonishing runs, best I've seen in all my years monitoring weather and studying NWP on line for more than 10 years. Simply eye poppingly beautiful! Or weather pornography if you will! Simply beautiful, and somewhat unbelievable! 

I will be going on Wednesday to buy extra coal sacks and logs for the fire, what a time for my gas boiler to pack in! Hope the parts arrive to fix it sooner than later!

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Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells
  • Location: Cirencester

Good god I've just looked at the GFS.. im not a coldie, although I love extremes, that is a brutal easterly there!. Lets get the deep cold in past t120.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL

Hmm icon doesn’t look as good as its previous run. More energy over the top off the high. Might still work out just see where this goes. 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, tinybill said:

lets hope the bbc start   geting  of the fence

It’s a week away. no need to warn about .......what exactly?  Cold and frosty? Can’t be any more specific than news orgs are already spouting off about it

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Hmm icon doesn’t look as good as its previous run. More energy over the top off the high. Might still work out just see where this goes. 

Yes, possibly a more S'ly based high on this run may be the end result...but that shouldn't be a surprise as it was still a possibility shown within the ECM ensembles.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

A simply awesome day of charts from pretty much all models, who'd have thought the 12z GFS will turn out to be a bit of a damp squib when compared to the ECM? I think the ECM from 144 is the best run I have ever seen, eclipsing the now legendary 'That ECM' (which failed to materialise).  Chart of this winter for my money is the ECM at 216

ECH1-216.GIF?19-0

Those seasoned and battered long-termers on here will know that when an easterly is on the table, you need to get it down to T72 before popping the Champagne corks so I'm not counting any chickens just yet. However, the cross model agreement and Met Office being on-board adds another layer of comfort.  It's going to be a long few days on here.

Edited by Ice Day
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
17 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Hmm icon doesn’t look as good as its previous run. More energy over the top off the high. Might still work out just see where this goes. 

Please don't take me as pedantic..

But even though the icon is the former mod-in throwing out evolutions/data..

Its also 5th best in format of raw defined outs!!

-example..mix or defy , its evolutions as leading ops/raw take out the scales!!!

I never post its evolve- for the reason of -microscale/larger window results...

Grid points far better than the former ...under played!! Raw-gfs..

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Dear oh dear..i simply cannot take anymore!!.

18z is exacting the swedish cross dynamics into a shark frenzy..

The run of them all perhaps...how can this be ??!!!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
28 minutes ago, Nick L said:

The mean 2m temps on the EC ensembles for the UK remain around zero for the entire run, right out until the end of the 1st week of March. Extraordinary.

I looked through the individual ensembles for D13 and to be honest they looked slightly messy - probably 60% with a good NW block but not enough to count any chickens over the longevity just yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

Trouble is that the models tonight are so good from here the only way is down.

Its going to be tortuous holding on to those perfect synoptics for another 7days, my God that's another 28 GFS runs!

I have just doubled my wine order for the week!

Andy

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Well nice to be able to follow a run after being at work all day. So far steady as she goes. No changes yet up to T+93....

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Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

Hmmm, got a feeling this is going to end up like the 0z ECM with the block being a little further south and the coldest air heading into Iberia.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
Just now, chionomaniac said:

Well nice to be able to follow a run after being at work all day. So far steady as she goes. No changes yet up to T+93....

Where that shortwave East of Iceland come from? ????hmmmmm

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Just now, Anti-Mild said:

Hmmm, got a feeling this is going to end up like the 0z ECM with the block being a little further south and the coldest air heading into Iberia.

Why? 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

 but not enough to count any chickens over the longevity just yet.

McDonald's don't have any chickens to count at the moment:D:whistling:

Anyway, the models are firming up on a freeze next week which could last well into march hopefully!..fingers crossed the 18z sends us to bed with smiles on our faces too.:cold-emoji::)

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
4 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Trouble is that the models tonight are so good from here the only way is down.

Its going to be tortuous holding on to those perfect synoptics for another 7days, my God that's another 28 GFS runs!

I have just doubled my wine order for the week!

Andy

We've been saying that for about 3 days now and the charts just seem to get better each time :rofl:

GFS perhaps a tad earlier on this one, but only a tad.

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