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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
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Posted
2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I'm sorry, but these sub 510 dam thicknesses and -15c 850s just won't cut it :D

Rtavn1683.gifRtavn1682.gif

You know it's a severe cold spell when the 510 dam 1000-500mb thickness line has moved over the UK! Rare for it to happen.

As the deep cold advection eventually waters down later next week on the 06z GFS  op, the run offers a reload of very deep cold air from Barents Sea area maybe in the offing first weekend of March, which collides with Atlantic lows trundling across France - BOOM

GFSOPEU06_300_1.thumb.png.9fe7c20d32995fa0711d0bcf5574864e.pngGFSOPEU06_300_2.thumb.png.1a9d8a3783c43e03930eda305e8a86b0.png

Oh dear, think I'm losing all kind of forecaster sensibility and sound thinking looking at these GFS  charts in FI!

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Scandinavian High. Experienced

Scandinavian High.

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
Posted
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

South of England in its entirety!!!!!! Not just the SE!! :p

5EF6AD8A-0B2D-41C7-BC71-513DF0844412.thumb.png.be215ab48907124471bfb78df4565a95.png

Yes karlos southern England could be in for a dumping..:cold::cold:

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DIS1970 Community Regular

DIS1970

Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton
Posted

I was supposed to be going to see Paul Weller at the NEC on the 2nd of March, but looking at the current output that could put the cat among the pigeons, in terms of getting there, but then again it is 10 days away.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Nuts run - best run yet in terms of widespread snow cover but higher risk getting so close to the higher uppers to our south

ecm day day spreads on 850’s indicates this is a cluster on the eps table 

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
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Posted
23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

That's fine - go do your research: I've done mine. For length this will likely outlast 87, be a bit less cold but quite possibly more snowy. It looks as cold in uppers as 47 though not as long.... but snow potential matches. Definitely more impactive than 91 or 96, and in my book an improvement on 10 (though we will only be able to argue that after the event.) Nothing can touch the longevity of the 63 winter - but taking snap shots from that incredible season what we have approaching is of similar intensity, even though spring is on the doorstep and will cut it short.

I'll hold to the claims. I think the next 2 weeks could go down in the history books as one of those special events. A ramp? Yes - but take a look at the output and the signals. All irrelevant now of course cos it hasn't happened yet - but after the event we can review. :-)

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Deep Snow please Rising Star

Deep Snow please

Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, Southender said:

Bonkers run. Start to finish, locked in cold, snow showers, frontal snow & blizzards, reloads, greenie highs and the lot for all. Bank please

It's bizzare isn't it. Every run we scream "they can't get better than this" and every run there's some iteration that is better for certain people. This is probably not quite as good as last nights but it's not really any worse.

Anyway precip rates seem a bit odd - as has been pointed out above, only 8-10cm in 12 hours from that blizzard according to the precip chart, not a chance.

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted

Looks lije the entire polar vortex is heading for northern europe on this run

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, sarahjhd said:

How do you get to this?

Let's say the chance of getting a massive high-latitude block like currently modeled in a year are 20%, 1 in 5 (only for illustration), this is probably a requirement for all three things MIA quoted: beast from the east, channel low and polar vortex low.  This means if you take into account the correlation and not count this probability three times, you'd need to reduce the odds of the combination by about a factor 5*5 = 25. 

Edited by Mike Poole
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Signs starting appear in the output now of a more prolonged nature to this cold spell, (should we be calling it that? Doesn’t seem to do it justice) 

worth watching he ens now for that signal in the extended range!

yet another great start to the day. I’m exhausted!

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Deep Snow please Rising Star

Deep Snow please

Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, Southender said:

Looks like the Atlantic might make it in....


By March 8th. Bless it.

Yup, seems to be making inroads at the absolute la la land end of the run, with a mild SW'ly breeze and some rain for the south coast. Probably be welcomed by many at that point!

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

 

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

Slightly unexpected cluster on the ECM ensembles this morning:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018022000_192.

Cluster 2 looks a touch more northerly than easterly. Won't stop it being cold but might change the longevity of the cold pool over the UK and the volume of snow that could be achieved.

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, Catacol said:

 

I'll hold to the claims. I think the next 2 weeks could go down in the history books as one of those special events. A ramp? Yes - but take a look at the output and the signals. All irrelevant now of course cos it hasn't happened yet - but after the event we can review. :-)

Personally I feel the above is a very fair assessment of the current situation based on the output I have seen.

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Fozfoster Seasoned

Fozfoster

Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
Posted
18 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

I was supposed to be going to see Paul Weller at the NEC on the 2nd of March, but looking at the current output that could put the cat among the pigeons, in terms of getting there, but then again it is 10 days away.

You might want to go " down in the tude station at midnight" to warm up!!!

i will get my coat:hi:

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beng Enthusiast

beng

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
Posted
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Slightly unexpected cluster on the ECM ensembles this morning:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018022000_192.

Cluster 2 looks a touch more northerly than easterly. Won't stop it being cold but might change the longevity of the cold pool over the UK and the volume of snow that could be achieved.

I'm not sure the 'really' cold air ever makes it in cluster 2 (high presumably moves West at a lower latitude across the UK, with lowest thickness kept South of the UK) - has 39% of ensemble members too. Let's hope it's reduced/gone in the 12Z run.

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

Oh my days I got up to T231hrs on the GFS 6z and then had to do a bit of work . Finish my bit of work and I start running through the 6z again and just keeps on coming . Bloody amazing ?

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Soaring Hawk Community Regular

Soaring Hawk

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, crisp, calm and sunny
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl
Posted (edited)

STEP AWAY FROM THE IPAD Soaring Hawk!!! NICE AND SLOWLY NOW...

8649BD79-4CC1-42D4-8D36-88826C73D3F3.png

Edited by Soaring Hawk
Can’t with runs that include this...
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Signs starting appear in the output now of a more prolonged nature to this cold spell, (should we be calling it that? Doesn’t seem to do it justice) 

worth watching he ens now for that signal in the extended range!

yet another great start to the day. I’m exhausted!

Exeters 16/30 dayer didn’t see the cold ending before the 6th March at the earliest  so no surprise to see it extending on the modelling. 

Note a 40% cluster appearing day 8 on the eps which is a more northerly flow as clos r to yesterday’s 00z run if I recall. 

also 50/50 on the easterly arriving earlier as per gfs/ukmo 

 

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mother nature rocks Aficionado

mother nature rocks

Posted
  • Location: Droitwich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold cold cold!!
  • Location: Droitwich
Posted

So pretty much all the runs since end of last week have been showing an epic end to winter.

Even a slight downgrade between now and Sunday morning we would still end up with a truly epic end to winter. 

Amazing times, enjoy all!!

I hope the councils are prepared for what is coming!! 

MNR

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Turnedoutniceagain Seasoned

Turnedoutniceagain

Posted
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
Posted
28 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

It's bizzare isn't it. Every run we scream "they can't get better than this" and every run there's some iteration that is better for certain people. This is probably not quite as good as last nights but it's not really any worse.

Anyway precip rates seem a bit odd - as has been pointed out above, only 8-10cm in 12 hours from that blizzard according to the precip chart, not a chance.

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

A foot of snow in March !!! - Seriously??

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ScottishSnowStorm Explorer

ScottishSnowStorm

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

06Z GEFS mean is in agreement with op in showing a slower movement of colder air. Not a downgrade, just an issue of timing.

The cold coming in a little later wouldn't be all that bad as the timing of the cold coming in is due to the block tilting but this is the point the block starts to cut off the cold pool from the siberian pool so a little longer just means the deeper the cold could get 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Severe wintry carnage on the Gfs 6z, oh boy are we in for some fun in the next few weeks!!:cold::D:shok:

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