Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[DIS1970]

I know the precipitation cannot be forecast this far ahead, but the distribution appears to be larger or longer, depends how you look at it.

[KDME]

11 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Sleeping rough under -15 850s and heavy snow is not a combination to celebrate.

 

Cannot imagine!  I hope local authorities and charities do their utmost to move those affected to a shelter.  Not two ways - there will be deaths from exposure if the charts come off as they are.

[weirpig]

at this range not be taken serious  but a flow such as whats being shown would cause some continued falls of snow  this is backed up by the precip charts  areas having constant snow for hours on end  flowing far inland   very interesting 

[Mike Poole]

20 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Mike...

If you read on I have stated that exactly,    and attempted to make an allowance for it, of from 200 to 500%!

 

MIA

OK, sorry, my bad, you have noted the issue - easy to read this thread too fast when the run is rolling - however, in my opinion this correction would no where near account for the correlation as all three things are much more likely in the modeled synoptics, which you can only take credit for once, and therefore you need to correct for a triple counting error of a significant part of the probability which would be greater than a factor 5, in my opinion.

Edited February 20, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Deep Snow please]

The North West finally gets to join the snow party at T+201, and entire 66 hours after the north east.

Edited February 20, 2018 by Deep Snow please

[ICE COLD]

-17 850s knocking on the door again at t207 ?

[Deep Snow please]

Would only take a minor shunt north or south for a non-event.

Edited February 20, 2018 by Deep Snow please

[supernova]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

-17 850s knocking on the door again at t207 ?

Knock and ye shall enter. Cripes!

 

[Nick F]

So, 06z slightly more delayed the deep cold arrival on Sunday vs 00z. Here's the 00z and 06z for 12z Sunday. But as to be expected this far away. The deep cold still coming, which is the main thing.

T850s for 12z Sunday

00z  06z

Some very low dewpoints, down to -15C, progged for southern UK on Monday, even as low as -21C over northern France, which must be record low

Will be a stiff trade in skin moisturising products, e.g. lip balm, with such dry air, just hope it's not too dry to produce much in the way of snow for the south.

 

Edited February 20, 2018 by Nick F

[radiohead]

T210 and still looking stunning.

[TEITS]

2 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

I know the precipitation cannot be forecast this far ahead, but the distribution appears to be larger or longer, depends how you look at it.

If everything goes according to plan then the distribution of snow showers is likely to alter into next week. During this Saturday the continental air arrives via a ESE,ly which then becomes a direct E,ly on Sunday/Monday. During the middle of next week the high will move towards Greenland and when this happens the flow is more likely to veer towards a ENE,ly or even NE,ly.

I cannot stress enough to members how the slightest change can alter the distribution of snow showers and it is this detail you want to look at nearer the time. I recall in Dec 2010 how Lincoln recieved incredible amounts of snow and yet I recieved nothing. This was due to a slight change in the model output which mean't less of a N,ly element to the E,ly and more a direct E,ly. Your local knowledge of your weather will help in these situations. For example I know I require the slightest N,ly element to an E,ly for my location to benefit.

[sarahjhd]

9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

OK, sorry, my bad, you have noted the issue - however, in my opinion this correction would no where near account for the correlation as all three things are much more likely in the modeled synoptics, which you can only take credit for once, and therefore you need to correct for a triple counting error which would be greater than a factor 500%, in my opinion.

How do you get to this?

[ScottishSnowStorm]

Looking like the reload might be better on this run 

[mb018538]

I'm sorry, but these sub 510 dam thicknesses and -15c 850s just won't cut it

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Nice to log in and see an UPGRADE on charts that were already stunning.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Lovely snow event for those snow starved in the SE at 240hrs, as we see a reload of cold heading into Scandi thanks to the retrogressing high.

[Scandinavian High.]

Is that an Area low pressure moving across the South East England blizzards 

[Duane S.]

51 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I was pondering if a SE flow off the English channel might bring snow to southern  coastal areas... as cold uppers and a SE flow I don’t believe is something I’ve seen before in my model watching years, so unknown territory for me... cheers MWB ?

It's exactly what we should be looking for down here. It used to happen a lot more in the 80s. SE / SSE and cold uppers will pile in snow showers for southern costal areas.

Hopefully laying a nice snowy base for the big one. A full on frontal attack from a moisture laden system following in from the south west!!

 

[Banbury]

Stunning

[That ECM]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

On the tarmac @Gatwick-

ECM looks poorly resolved @120 over scandi- out of kilter with GFS / UKMO blend- but post day 5 still gets there

The wave that the models have at about 168/192 coming west through Europe is perfect timing to reinforce the cold -- Also bringing heavy snow from the east- something that never happens these days-

If any of these model land them the snow totals for the UK will be epic

s

Steve, your good at reading output but rubbish at commuting, you actually need to get on the plane

 

right, trying to find my channel low, this has possibilities.

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Is that an Area low pressure moving across the South East England blizzards 

South of England in its entirety!!!!!! Not just the SE!! 

Edited February 20, 2018 by karlos1983

[Deep Snow please]

Thought the breakdown was coming but seen off nicely and blizzards across the south where the systems meet.

 

[Mucka]

That's a pretty solid reload 

[Banbury]

Just keeps coming what a run

[Southender]

Bonkers run. Start to finish, locked in cold, snow showers, frontal snow & blizzards, reloads, greenie highs and the lot for all. Bank please

Edited February 20, 2018 by Southender