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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

:nonono: goodness gracious, pages and pages of ridicuously OTT ramps....this is really on a knife edge folks, just a small variation will change the weather pattern totally....I mean for example if you take the GFS00z run and then rotate your computer screen clockwise 90 degrees you'll quickly notice the isobar lines change direction and you get the mother of all southerly plumes with temps in the mid 80's......I'll fetch me coat  (thermally insulated I might add as I'm going to need it for the next two weeks) 

notice to mildies, doing this is the only way you're going to see southerlies for the next few weeks.....lol

(I do believe I have ramped again, that's twice in the last 12 hours........I need a lie down)

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull
19 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Look at the wind chill and DP’s for Sunday!!

debating whether to tell my brothers or laugh at them as we wonder between pubs at Wembley in Sunday afternoon?

A223B7A1-F7D1-42E7-8999-3470805111B9.thumb.gif.70c8179c13129fc8486fb12c7d317dfb.gifE7272FE9-3389-46AF-A588-C27CB82BCA52.thumb.gif.28a7e0b638162366e648abed5114b83a.gif

how certain are we this cold air will arrive? Because I am at the point I’m not sure I can hold off telling people for much longer. Looks nailed to me, but I’ve got that nagging feeling to hold off!!

I've capitulated and gone for it -probably see me nailed to a gutter - tarred and feathered ! 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

image.thumb.png.bd7621a284756be29884961185ea7f5c.png

MT8_Manchester_ens.png

Quite nice really

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Well for a change, I am worrying more about the severity of potential impacts than whatever chance there is of the 'beast' dodging us at short notice.

Not much worth adding really, so much has already been said about the extremity of the model output we currently have.


Amazing how ECM reverted to developing many distortions in the flow while it's still over the continent, slowing the westward transport, and yet still ended up producing some sensational charts.

It will be educational when we find out whether it's been right to 'mess with the flow' so much. Other models generally favour either a cleaner flow or a broader disturbance that helps funnel the cold west (provided it doesn't bomb out and wrap the cold in). 

 

Edited by Singularity
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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
12 minutes ago, TEITS said:

A significant shift W from the UKMO this morning if you compare to yesterdays 0Z.

UW144-7.GIF?19-00UW120-7.GIF?20-06

If you take all of todays output including the ensemble means then the UKMO is about right in my opinion especially with regards to the positioning and orientation of the high.

Another thing worth mentioning is snowfall. Now whilst this is silly this far out I feel something is worth mentioning. The focus including the Met O has been towards the S&E. However based on the output and my own experience I feel locations from Lincs all the way upto Northumberland could be hit hard, probably even more so than the SE. This snowfall is likely to penetrate well inland. Those who did well in early Dec 2010 could yet again see heavy snowfall.

Its OK don't worry about us in the SE. We'll just wait for the channel low after the cold air comes :D

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

While the models have got a solid enough look about them to trust the inbound cold easterly will arrive, there's enough variances on each run to make nothing certain regarding the extent of snowfall.  For example I'm off to Ischgl in Austria on Saturday and constantly checking the 10 day weather. Yesterday it looked like there was more chance of it snowing here than there while I was away. Today shows snow everyday while I'm there!  

Little shifts back and forth of 50- 200 miles....nothing in the global scale of things but will potentially have big impacts at a local kevel

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
1 minute ago, c00ps said:

Its OK don't worry about us in the SE. We'll just wait for the channel low after the cold air comes :D

Similarly for us in the north west who can wait on the polar low coming in on the back of your channel low.

In all seriousness whilst these runs show exceptional cold nationwide, the snow is primarily confined to the east coast at present so we'll be needing a few troughs to bring the Midlands and the North West of England fully into the game. The weakened convection Machine is also an issue. Even then though there appears to be a realistic possibility of a Greenland high out in Fantasy Island which would resolve much of this problem.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 hour ago, Glenn Redwood said:

Mt.Sinabung has just erupted in Indonesia. How will this impact the reversal of NH winds?

It will have no effect.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
2 minutes ago, karyo said:

It will have no effect.

The snow will eventually turn grey.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

For our Cornish friends keep an eye on the exact wind flow because anything with a touch of se in the easterly flow can deliver down there. Also areas a bit further east right on the coast if theres enough se in the flow.

I'm watching this very carefully Nick!! The English Channel lake effect is as rare as anything but if it sets up there could be a big shock for the south coast, particularly S Devon I'd say, maybe even @karlos1983. I think it's a slight outsider at the moment though?

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm watching this very carefully Nick!! The English Channel lake effect is as rare as anything but if it sets up there could be a big shock for the south coast, particularly S Devon I'd say, maybe even @karlos1983. I think it's a slight outsider at the moment though?

I was pondering if a SE flow off the English channel might bring snow to southern  coastal areas... as cold uppers and a SE flow I don’t believe is something I’ve seen before in my model watching years, so unknown territory for me... cheers MWB ?

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Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
35 minutes ago, TEITS said:

A significant shift W from the UKMO this morning if you compare to yesterdays 0Z.

UW144-7.GIF?19-00UW120-7.GIF?20-06

If you take all of todays output including the ensemble means then the UKMO is about right in my opinion especially with regards to the positioning and orientation of the high.

Another thing worth mentioning is snowfall. Now whilst this is silly this far out I feel something is worth mentioning. The focus including the Met O has been towards the S&E. However based on the output and my own experience I feel locations from Lincs all the way upto Northumberland could be hit hard, probably even more so than the SE. This snowfall is likely to penetrate well inland. Those who did well in early Dec 2010 could yet again see heavy snowfall.

My hunch with you TEITS, and early precip charts (for what they’re worth), eg the latest UKMO extended suggests the same. Perhaps worth mentioning that we could be talking 30cms versus 15cms though! I’m in Gatwick.

2010 brought many embedded troughs down here though, the Nick S alludes to. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

GFSOPEU06_75_1.png

No pesky little low pressure over Finland on this one! phew

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

Am I reading this right that the cold has been delayed yet again? Was weekend, then Monday now Tuesday?

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
1 minute ago, Neilsouth said:

Am I reading this right that the cold has been delayed yet again? Was weekend, then Monday now Tuesday?

No. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton

A few subtle differences on this run, but nothing to worry about at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
2 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Am I reading this right that the cold has been delayed yet again? Was weekend, then Monday now Tuesday?

No  by about 6 hours    howerever  wouldnt take it as gospel

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