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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
3 minutes ago, Sn0wmad79 said:

Hi, Looking at the charts from the top 3 models and seeing that the projected easterly is by no means a weak flow, in fact quite robust I have no issues being on the west side of the pennines. Last time we saw charts like these snow depths were up to a foot in parts of the west with drifting up to 10 ft high.

It wasn't good for all tho. CC only got 10 inches of snow and 8 foot drifts:D JFF CC:D

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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)

Another outstanding set of runs from every single model (that matters), putting the UK in the freezer by the end of this upcoming weekend and keeping us on ice for the following week. GEM/UKMO/GFS/ECM all rock solid. 

ECM midnight run yesterday vs ECM midnight run today. Both for next Thursday (0100 March 1). Will be interesting to do the same exercise with tonight's run bearing in mind how incredible the Euro model's charts were last night. Either way, beautiful synoptics and nothing to worry or complain about. Bring on the Beast!

ECH1-240.GIF-2.thumb.png.ad9e5209cd4b0c466de13c9e8d26863a.pngECH1-216.GIF.thumb.png.d7c92048bfb9be87288d57b1a6de9a69.png

ECH0-240.GIF.thumb.png.11115cb77f025c0902b22dc61f3a3e7c.pngECH0-216.GIF.thumb.png.908fd2afe16cc572db05ce1a36bd945d.png

Also, a like-for-like comparison with the latest GFS ensembles show the latest run is the coldest yet with average uppers of -12 or less for the first part of the week in Eastern counties. Quite the set. Seems B&Q will be on the phone to @chionomaniac wanting their salt back quick sharp this morning. Not sure I've ever seen such cross model agreement for any event so far out, not least one as potentially historic as the cold plunge surely coming our way. Only a day or two more before I dare tell the kids. By jingo it's exciting. Can't imagine what the atmosphere's going to be like in here by the weekend if the wheels haven't fallen off by then. God help the mods either way. Suggest we all do our bit in the meantime to save Him (or Her) the bother.

GFSENS00_53_-1_205.thumb.png.27fc3d3e56dc56cdfaff0f747a02d603.png

 

 

Edited by supernova
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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Coventry

Its interesting looking at forecasts for central Europe as a comparator. You can see the temp gradient moving down. Berlin as an example shifting down to -12C by 1st March. Everything is on the same hymn sheet 

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

I might say it alone this morning but I'll say what I believe the ecm is not great in the short term

1) It delays everything by 36 hours

2) Heights are too close would much rather the high pressure further north in the midterm

3) It moves the high too fast to Greenland and doesn't allow the easterly cold to get a proper deep hold over the country.

Now after saying all that I'll run for the door??

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

'Again' we take yet another step forwards!!!

Can't quite beleive im quoting that!!!

However-i am...and its true.

We have to begin to ponder the possible consequenses here.

Those ensembles are ridiculous!!!

Cracking-and gaining(yet further)!!!!!

temp4.png

MT8_London_ens (2).png

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
6 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I might say it alone this morning but I'll say what I believe the ecm is not great in the short term

1) It delays everything by 36 hours

2) Heights are too close would much rather the high pressure further north in the midterm

3) It moves the high too fast to Greenland and doesn't allow the easterly cold to get a proper deep hold over the country.

Now after saying all that I'll run for the door??

I agree that the ECM is making me nervous a touch. It seems to keep the cold at 168 / 192. When it does arrive it is great, but I want this done quickly now, as the longer we wait the more the wheels could start to come off.

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Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

Wow! Just, wow! I fully expected to wake up to downgrades this morning but thankfully not.

This is shaping up to be amazing for us coldies, dare i say reminiscent of Jan 87? However, it's getting to the stage where there could be potentially widespread and serious consequences for an infrastructure that is not used to these events.

In short, get stocked up on essentials, make sure you've a shovel in your car, and check on the elderly when you can.

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Could someone post the ecm ens when they have a chance? Would be good to see where the op sits re arrival of cold 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Just some snap shots from the GFS 00z , for those who missed it . Sorry @Frosty. I'm nicking your net weather job ?. It's cold the whole way out ??

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

The ECM mean at 96 hrs looks like it's bringing the Cold West slightly earlier,  ECM mean complete and it brings the cold about 24 hours earlier 

Screenshot_20180220-074722.png

Screenshot_20180220-075104.png

Edited by seabreeze86
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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

On the tarmac @Gatwick-

ECM looks poorly resolved @120 over scandi- out of kilter with GFS / UKMO blend- but post day 5 still gets there

The wave that the models have at about 168/192 coming west through Europe is perfect timing to reinforce the cold -- Also bringing heavy snow from the east- something that never happens these days-

If any of these model land them the snow totals for the UK will be epic

s

Where are you off to Steve. I’m at Gatwick too. Away to Mexico for a week. Hoping ECM is right as that gives my return flight a chance of landing and me being able to drive home. If Gfs is correct, I suspect Gatwick will be closed when I am due to land

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Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
15 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I might say it alone this morning but I'll say what I believe the ecm is not great in the short term

1) It delays everything by 36 hours

2) Heights are too close would much rather the high pressure further north in the midterm

3) It moves the high too fast to Greenland and doesn't allow the easterly cold to get a proper deep hold over the country.

Now after saying all that I'll run for the door??

Agree, but really it’s only not great if you compare it to the other 5 star charts from other models, ECM is more 4 and three quarter stars! It’s still incredible and we’d all have happily banked it if offered it a week ago. I’d still bank it now in fact!

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
2 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

The ECM mean at 96 hrs looks like it's bringing the Cold West slightly earlier 

Screenshot_20180220-074722.png

Yup, at 144 it’s interchangeable with GFS UKMO and GEM etc 

 

952474B5-7D4D-44CE-BFC3-845AA56BD870.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Omg ? now the ecm means bring the cold in Sunday inline with GFS and UKMO . Can this day get any better ??

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Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
24 minutes ago, supernova said:

Another outstanding set of runs from every single model (that matters), putting the UK in the freezer by the end of this upcoming weekend and keeping us on ice for the following week. GEM/UKMO/GFS/ECM all rock solid. 

ECM midnight run yesterday vs ECM midnight run today. Both for next Thursday (0100 March 1). Will be interesting to do the same exercise with tonight's run bearing in mind how incredible the Euro model's charts were last night. Either way, beautiful synoptics and nothing to worry or complain about. Bring on the Beast!

ECH1-240.GIF-2.thumb.png.ad9e5209cd4b0c466de13c9e8d26863a.pngECH1-216.GIF.thumb.png.d7c92048bfb9be87288d57b1a6de9a69.png

ECH0-240.GIF.thumb.png.11115cb77f025c0902b22dc61f3a3e7c.pngECH0-216.GIF.thumb.png.908fd2afe16cc572db05ce1a36bd945d.png

Also, a like-for-like comparison with the latest GFS ensembles show the latest run is the coldest yet with average uppers of -12 or less for the first part of the week in Eastern counties. Quite the set. Seems B&Q will be on the phone to @chionomaniac wanting their salt back quick sharp this morning. Not sure I've ever seen such cross model agreement for any event so far out, not least one as potentially historic as the cold plunge surely coming our way. Only a day or two more before I dare tell the kids. By jingo it's exciting. Can't imagine what the atmosphere's going to be like in here by the weekend if the wheels haven't fallen off by then. God help the mods either way. Suggest we all do our bit in the meantime to save Him (or Her) the bother.

GFSENS00_53_-1_205.thumb.png.27fc3d3e56dc56cdfaff0f747a02d603.png

 

 

Quick question. Those runs that bring in less cold or even mild conditions at the beginning of March, is that due to low pressure from the SW pushing N/NE bringing a breakdown snow to rain event? Or is it due to another form of less exciting breakdown?

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Posted
  • Location: Boston Spa
  • Location: Boston Spa
1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

High moving towards Greenland by 192 hours - ECM1-192_zhj3.GIF

Confused by posts about the Met Office outlook. It hasn't changed since yesterday. It's exactly the same.

Might be talking about the regional as ours (Yorkshire) has gone from turning colder Friday to isolated snow flurries from Friday onwards on overnight update

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

ECM op at the top of the pack when the cold is supposed to arrive, explaining why the mean is earlier... 

graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=&y=&run=0&ville

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