Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[MattStoke]

High moving towards Greenland by 192 hours - 

Confused by posts about the Met Office outlook. It hasn't changed since yesterday. It's exactly the same.

Edited February 20, 2018 by MattStoke

[ICE COLD]

ECM 216 WOW ? -16 850s incoming 

[radiohead]

Did anyone spot the channel low at 192 on the ECM?

[Weathizard]

ECM playing the long game it seems, weather porn.

[Ice Day]

Sensation over stuff.  All models onboard, just the ECM a little slower than the rest, but it well and truly delivers.

ECM at 216 

It's going its own way, but every way results in a winter battering for poor old blighty.

 

[terrier]

Well if we are playing model bingo this morning I think we just have got a full house. 

[That ECM]

Stalling snow

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 minute ago, terrier said:

Well if we are playing model bingo this morning I think we just have got a full house. 

If Terrier is happy I am happy!  

Seriously cold output across all of the models this morning.  Now we just need the weather to agree!

[Banbury]

ECM is such an unstable run , it would give UK snow I’m sure 

[radiohead]

Oh my god!!

[Sparkiee storm]

1st - London 

2nd - Scotland 

3rd - Oslo 

Just one word description, Amazing!!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

If only this day 10 chart was day 3...

About as severe as you'll get in the UK in terms of depth of cold/snow

[Southender]

I keep waking up dreading reading this forum the last few days. But yet again this morning nothing to worry about. All models on board just slightly different with timings. Phew ? 

[Tom Jarvis]

Just now, radiohead said:

Oh my god!!

That low actually went east across the country from 219-240 major snow event for the south

[philglossop]

6 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

That low actually went east across the country from 219-240 major snow event for the south

That’s the DREAM chart for Devon and Cornwall. -12 uppers and low in Sw approaches...

[stewfox]

1 hour ago, shane303 said:

The models could Still all change alot to a less cold set up so won’t be a done deal until maybe Thursday 

You giving daffodils a reprieve based on what ? Don't you think its their time to suffer just once.

GFS Monday morning

Bury them, just once 

[JeffC]

6 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Oh my god!!

Upgrade after upgrade, all nuances rather than wholesale changes, but all lining up to be something that may have been worth waiting for.

Not sure I'll be getting many miles in early March... One of those kinks is pretty much over my gaff! 

To Paraphrase Roy Scheider "we're gonna need a bigger shovel" 

[Seasonality]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

If only this day 10 chart was day 3...

About as severe as you'll get in the UK in terms of depth of cold/snow

You won't know what to do with yourself if the severe cold actually arrives as planned Crewe, you won't be able to make pessimistic posts about it not happening and always being in FI  I'm not seeing the ICON being given much love this morning so here goes, closer to the ECM and UKMO solution at that time frame than the GFS but all roads lead to cold it seems with the current output, so glass is increasingly looking like it will be half full!

[Man With Beard]

So this morning's op runs summarised - 6 slightly different ways of sending the UK into the freezer.

[Tom Jarvis]

Just now, radiohead said:

Oh my god!!

That low actually went east across the country from 219-240 major snow event for the south

[Fozfoster]

Just for fun ECM

[Rayth]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

So this morning's op runs summarised - 6 slightly different ways of sending the UK into the freezer.

I don’t know what to say my bearded friend 

[winterof79]

1 hour ago, Timmytour said:

I really don't understand all the excitement. A cold snap that looks like it will be all over by mid-April.... 

Why do some always see the end before it's begun

[Sn0wmad79]

8 minutes ago, Fozfoster said:

Just for fun ECM

Hi, Looking at the charts from the top 3 models and seeing that the projected easterly is by no means a weak flow, in fact quite robust I have no issues being on the west side of the pennines. Last time we saw charts like these snow depths were up to a foot in parts of the west with drifting up to 10 ft high.

[Duane S.]

This is getting ridiculous. It’s got to a point when these charts are so good it can only go one way, or I thought before the 00z.

The sheer consistency. The depth of cold. The snow potential. All the Ops, the steadfastly bullish ens. The background signals firmly supporting it. Everything is pointing towards one of the most memorable cold spells in decades, maybe longer.

Just need to get over the line and fast forward to the end of the week. We are nearing the stage though where if this does get watered down, it would still be incredible. Not a bad position to be in.