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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Chandlers Ford, south of Winchester.
  • Location: Chandlers Ford, south of Winchester.

Slower evolution on ecm at t120 but looks ok. 

 

Edited by Fingers
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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Wow just wow. Ecm gem ukmo gfs icon all absolutely freezing. And all the fun and games start as early as Sunday. With snow showers spreading into eastern areas. Before most of us all see some snow next week. Wrap up warm folks it’s gonna get cold :cold::cold::cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Very slow from ecm and heights very close to the UK. Out to 144hrs and not as good as gfs or ukmo

Whilst all the other models upgrade the cold and bring it forward, we then have the ECM that appears to go AWOL very early on into its run...I said it looked messy at day 4...

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Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire moorlands 252m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frosty and fresh
  • Location: Staffordshire moorlands 252m asl

Wash, rinse, repeat. 

some of the best concensus across main models i have ever seen.

old enough to remember some great winters hope the younger generation get to see and enjoy it

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

So, just to clarify, people are annoyed that we may have to wait 12/24 hours for -14/16 850s:D

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Very slow from ecm and heights very close to the UK. Out to 144hrs and not as good as gfs or ukmo

Patience. There's uppers of -25 marching west. It would still be regarded as a stellar run from anyone's standards! 

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Whilst all the other models upgrade the cold and bring it forward, we then have the ECM that appears to go AWOL very early on into its run...I said it looked messy at day 4...

Your being far too picky , really you are 

CA31BA8D-1860-40A2-9F56-FE54F322B9A2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Everything coming along nicely after the overnights ops runs.

All models agree on deep cold here by Monday.

Gfs moves towards ECM with a long cold/snowy outlook right out to 384

Ukmo absolutely superb at 120/144

Overnight meto update a real stonker.

bbc extended outlook update mentioning Siberian air arriving next week.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

ECM gets the cold to us 2 days later than every other model - ECM0-168_dna6.GIF

Looks same timing as last nights 12z if not a bit quicker and further north!!main thing is we did not want it to slip south which it aint done!!probably bring it im a bit quicker on the 12z!!

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
3 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

 

Overnight meto update a real stonker

Unless I'm missing something then the wording hasn' changed since yesterday?? Unless you have a different source?

Edited by KTtom
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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
44 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Strange snow charts, almost opposite distribution to what you would expect??

 

 

5.png.dbf2733b576c4634aba1019fed59b83f.png

I'm in the middle snow on most days,trust me,that won't happen.

Seriously they're pretty much useless that far out.

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Posted
  • Location: Braintree, Essex
  • Location: Braintree, Essex
3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

ECM gets the cold to us 2 days later than every other model - ECM0-168_dna6.GIF

Wasn't that what the post from the guy in regional forums said where some model will show it 2 days earlier than others and there' a chance either setups could happen

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