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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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philglossop Community Regular

philglossop

Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
Posted

Wow wow wow.

This set up takes me back to February 1986 and January 1987. That’s the famous Ian McKaskell forecast on YouTube if you look. Bitterly cold with frontal snow that caused here.

And then joy of joys the winds turn more NE towards the end of the run. Fabulous stuff.

2DDC26DF-BD1B-48C4-BCF1-F1D56299A047.png

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted (edited)

Impressive runs again this morning, Severe cold as good as guaranteed next week. Just the detail to iron out now..

Edited by Polar Maritime
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tinybill Seasoned

tinybill

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
Posted (edited)

just looked  at the overnight  gfs  just   its now going deep in to fantasy world to 384  hr:cold::cold::shok::yahoo:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

OUTOF THIS  WORLD

 

Edited by tinybill
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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

GEFs, by day 6 we have a mean temperature at 850hpa of -14c in the south east. Most areas in minus double figures by then. 

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted
3 hours ago, Chris.R said:

The GFS 18Z...OMFG...that’s all i’m going to say! 

 

The GFS 00Z...OMFG...that’s all i’m going to say! 

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted
3 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

GEFs, by day 6 we have a mean temperature at 850hpa of -14c in the south east. Most areas in minus double figures by then. 

Absolutely crazy that an ensemble mean can be as low as -14 way out at day 6. 

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tinybill Seasoned

tinybill

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
Posted
Just now, mulzy said:

Absolutely crazy that an ensemble mean can be as low as -14 way out at day 6. 

im  just gobsmacked it could be like2012 when  temp were -12 during the day here in the east i should knowi work outside!!

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shane303 Explorer

shane303

Posted
  • Location: South Petherton 41 metres (134 feet)
  • Location: South Petherton 41 metres (134 feet)
Posted

The models could Still all change alot to a less cold set up so won’t be a done deal until maybe Thursday 

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, TheBeastFromTheEAST said:

I have to be honest, i was scared to look on here this morning..... looking through my fingers lol... ?

Me too!!

Sensational 00z runs, im starting to believe, after all the years of let downs..

For those worrying if ukmo is too far south check out the ECM 168 12z yesterday, its a pretty superb match and we know what followed on ECM..

Edited by Nick L
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Timmytour Accomplished

Timmytour

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Posted

I really don't understand all the excitement. A cold snap that looks like it will be all over by mid-April.... 

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Sparkiee storm Seasoned

Sparkiee storm

Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
Posted
15 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 

The GFS 00Z...OMFG...that’s all i’m going to say! 

You'll probably be saying that on every run from now on haha, every run is exceptionally cold next week and some make it even colder. 

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted

Wow - looked at the charts through my fingers this morning but quickly relaxed.

The initial Easterly is now looking very likely.....I think that will be a done deal if we can get past this evenings 12z runs unscathed. 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Gfs is incredible and this from ukmo is very special. What I like about this is the anticipation of what would follow. 

IMG_0587.PNG

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Sparkiee storm Seasoned

Sparkiee storm

Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
Posted (edited)

Obviously the detail has still yet to be worked out but my god, what an abundance of snow and severe cold, I reckon there could be well over a foot in some places over the next few weeks, penetrating frosts, ice days, severe wind chill and possible huge snow drifts as the winds aren't too light either, wow, like many here Im nearly speechless, if these words don't make sense you know why, just WOW!!

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Edited by Sparkiee storm
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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

Unbelievable!!!! The biggest thing for me is UKMO is stunning and on board ??. I'm just gob smacked 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
8 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Strange snow charts, almost opposite distribution to what you would expect??

 

 

5.png.dbf2733b576c4634aba1019fed59b83f.png

You’d think the south of England would do well in this, unless these charts don’t pick up convection 

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted

Honestly - ignore these snow charts! Streamers are macro features that will only be picked up by hi-res modelling in near time.

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Banbury Experienced

Banbury

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

You’d think the south of England would do well in this, unless these charts don’t pick up convection 

I don’t think they do, there is no way the South will be dry 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

ECM looks a bit messy to me at day 4

ECH1-96.GIF?20-12

Looks very similar to me. T96 for all 3. It's just a little slower imo. 

IMG_0588.PNG

IMG_0589.PNG

IMG_0590.PNG

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Decemberof2010 Seasoned

Decemberof2010

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
Posted

Excellent runs this morning. Incredible last few days of model watching. And as if we couldn't ask for more I suggest a peak at the overnight MO update:-)

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southbank Enthusiast

southbank

Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton
Posted
3 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Excellent runs this morning. Incredible last few days of model watching. And as if we couldn't ask for more I suggest a peak at the overnight MO update:-)

Any links to that ?

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