Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Daniel*]

Beautiful UKMO this morning, who says it’s too late for an ice day? Ice day for capital Monday. 

[Nick L]

I'm not sure how it's managed it but this is even bloody colder. -17c 850s into Kent by Monday, -17!!!!!!

[SMU]

Stay on the GEM lol sub -28 into scandi 180

[SMU]

kaboom lol - -18 !

 

[FENDER.]

4am and there is

Who's Online   40 Members, 1 Anonymous, 159 Guests

you know something is a foot lol.    

[Nick L]

I've seen folks on TWO saying that this looks like a dry easterly 

[Mark Bayley]

Speechless - look at 204

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&archive=0

Edited February 20, 2018 by Mark Bayley

[Nick L]

And for Tuesday (my birthday! :D) we get a trough coming through, but because the models have sent the world into reverse it's an upside down trough. 

[SMU]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

I've seen folks on TWO saying that this looks like a dry easterly 

If you was to mock up the snowiest Easterly you could imagine then the GEM 00z has saved you the job -

feet of snow in England on that run..

[Daniel*]

Much of England buried on GEM these upgrades keep coming it’s ridiculously good.

[Nick L]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

If you was to mock up the snowiest Easterly you could imagine then the GEM 00z has saved you the job -

feet of snow in England on that run..

So many kinks and wobbles in the isobars, oh I am glad I booked the final week of Feb off work. 

The consistency regarding the depth of the cold across all models is remarkable. 

[Nick L]

Something's brewing in the North Sea at +207 on the GFS...it's such a ridiculously cold and ridiculously unstable set up. It's outstanding.

[jason6347]

Do you think the high at@144 ukmo will head to greenland?

[Daniel*]

GEM is incredible T+240 looks quite March 2013 that snow not measured in CM but in foot.  

[SMU]

lol - High res GEM

@Retron @Nick L @TEITS @bluearmy @lorenzo @nick sussex

Looking at the GEM anomaly chart@850 NW france / SE UK has biggest -VE in the NH @204 at -16 to -20c...

Edited February 20, 2018 by Steve Murr

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

lol - High res GEM

@Retron @Nick L @TEITS @bluearmy @lorenzo @nick sussex

Two impressive things there, the insane cold over the continent, and the ridiculous thermal gradient in southern France!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Possibly one of the most beautiful Greenland highs you'll see modelled

Textbook.

[jason6347]

Will the high on ukmo @144 head to greenland?

[The Enigma]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Possibly one of the most beautiful Greenland highs you'll see modelled

Textbook.

These runs are simply sublime,  you would struggle to draw a more perfect Greeny High. 

Edited February 20, 2018 by The Enigma

[MattStoke]

This is rudiculous. How does it keep on upgraing?!

Does the UKMO look further south and a bit slower than the GFS?

[Fingers]

Alarm set 15 mins earlier to trawl through models and i’d like to say i’m not disappointed!!!! Deep cold in by t120- t126,  it’s coming down and looking world class, the models just keep giving! 

[Jemma Croton]

Totally set my alarm just to check the 00Z. This is just insane stuff. I am shooketh

[Captain Shortwave]

So then, this morning the GFS has the bitter cold entering the UK by Sunday 

UKMO is around the same time with the -8C isotherm arriving Sunday morning but the bitter cold is well and truly across the UK by this point below.

GEM, good consensus with the cold air being brought in if anything a little earlier.

 

The UKMO still looks best with the strongest cold pool linking all the way back to Siberia but both the GFS and GEM keep that easterly going for a good few days before we see the pattern switch towards blocking to our north west with the rememants of the polar vortex starting to drop towards Scandinavia by the 8-10 day period.

GEM/GFS day 10

   

Another stunning set of runs this morning so far.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

This is not like anything I've witnessed in my short time model watching nor probably anything my generation have witnessed being 24 in march.. 

I think seeing last night every model we are able to view and trust bringing the cold in by the weekend and watching the ECM come on board was world class. 

Today I think will be the £10m day where if we can get into Wednesday with similar charts, we will be on course for a historical event. We have started the day rather well.. 

These kinds of setups and level of cold are a once in 50 years kind of pattern for our tiny island anyway 

[Nick L]

Also impressive is how the ensemble clusters are so tightly packed to the same frigid outcome. It would take a monumental backtrack to get out of this now.