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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock

if 

2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

What a crap run, gets really mild towards the end.

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

only a blip look at 384 another major snow event

gfsnh-0-384.png?18

if this run verified from now to t-324 I think everybody would be praying for the 50 hour warmer blip to actually be a full breakdown  as we would all have already lost a weeks work, and the country would be crippled. Ridiculous run.

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Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
37 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Some would assume, im watching the most 'emotional ever' movie unfold...

But i'd have great difficulty explaining otherwise...why i have tears in my eyes!! ??????

gfs-0-186.png

Seriously, how many more times do I need to replace my screensaver?! ?

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

By my maths, we have the following 850 temps somewhere over the UK from 132

-8's - 252 hours

-10's - 174 hours

-12's - 84 hours

-14's (or lower) - 60 hours

This would be historic cold.  I must admit, elation gave way to a little trepidation looking at that run and I was glad when the severe cold lifted a little.  I really don't want to over-hype but if this run or the earlier ECM is on the money, there could be a seriously chaotic situation in front of us.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Chandlers Ford, south of Winchester.
  • Location: Chandlers Ford, south of Winchester.

Well, i’m not sure I can keep quiet anymore! Is there some kind of helpline I can ring??!! I’m sat her chuckling to myself, the wife thinks I’m mad! For me, needs to get inside t120 but blimey....... #bestchartsever! ??

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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

And associated 2 foot of snow :p

uksnowdepth.png

I’m in the blue zone 

so it was nice knowing you guys/ girls 

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
7 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Frankly - no it cant. Easterly convection followed by channel low followed by polar low is a combination Ali would have prized. I'm not sure it has ever happened (where's @Retron when you need him?) and perhaps this is the point at which we have to accept some downgrades will come. I just cant quite believe that such a spread is actually out there on the table.

It's a long way out in microforecasting terms. But if it comes off I think I wont see an event like this again in my lifetime - and the UK would grind to a halt as per 1963. It would perhaps not break cold records... but when you are looking at frontal and convective snow frankly it doesnt matter if its 1 degree, -2 degrees or -5 degrees. It's white, it will stick, and it doesnt look like it will melt any time soon after.

Bah. 5 more days of this is going to slaughter me. @snowking is right. Somehow we need a period of calm, but the modelling seems intent on maintaining high blood pressure for a week at least.

Tomorrow I'm off to buy beans, bread and chocolate. Could live for weeks on that.

 

 

1 minute ago, pages said:

if 

only a blip look at 384 another major snow event

gfsnh-0-384.png?18

if this run verified from now to t-324 I think everybody would be praying for the 50 hour warmer blip to actually be a full breakdown  as we would all have already lost a weeks work, and the country would be crippled. Ridiculous run.

Yup, our country simply isn't set up to deal with that sort of weather at all. Would be mental. 

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Posted
  • Location: Heathfield, E Sussex 157m asl
  • Location: Heathfield, E Sussex 157m asl

The models are throwing out gold medal runs--therefore we must expect a few silver and bronze ones over the next days. Surely they can't remain like this for the next 5 days or so!!!

With regard to snow amounts, this will be an exercise of radar watching on the day. No point in forecasting ahead.

Hoping to bring the snow shovel into use next week

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Tonight's 18Z was the first time I saw a run and actually shook by the end of it ... the cold is unbelievable.

Looking generally at the extended, T300 on the EPS, note the centre of the high pressure is a long way from us, but the mean uppers are still below minus 8 (!)

ec-ens_millikort_mslpmean_t850mean_t850s

There's a lot of very cold and snowy runs in there, but exactly what the synoptics will be, a mystery. Still a danger of a backdoor west based NAO. Not the most likely route - that's definitely the cold route - but I'm not as confident on the continuation of the cold as I was with the initial easterly.

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Posted
  • Location: Port Of Ness.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather in winter
  • Location: Port Of Ness.
2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

 

Yup, our country simply isn't set up to deal with that sort of weather at all. Would be mental. 

Scotland is, my friend.

Edited by Mildcarlisle
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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
2 minutes ago, Big Snow said:

If the ECM 18Z was stellar...we've just gone interstellar.

Do you know something we don't???

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
8 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

I' convinced it's a BOT. Really random wording most of the time from tight isobar which literally never makes any sense.

Ok goat man!!

Give us a 'quote'that makes any sense for model/meteorological insight!!.

And i'll gladly elaborate on any scale of the ^above^..

I *await* your analysis...for compare!!

@i convinced...

'Correction' Im convinced..

People in glass houses !!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

There are simply no words to describe these runs. Netweather synoptic heaven. It cannot get better than this. If this goes the way of the pear then Arsenal Fan TV will have a new airtime rival in this place!

edit: the control. Hold my beer at 156 please. 

 

649E9AFE-965F-4185-B3D9-7012E25FB8E8.png

Edited by ITSY
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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
3 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Tight Isobar may seem to post like clues in a cryptic crossword but his understanding of the dynamics of the model output is second to non.

 

To be fair if he's a bot he has the cumulative knowledge of the entire forum to play with so he's at an advantage in having a good understanding. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

And a very happy ending from the 18z with a severe reload from the arctic...another insane run and I'm sure there will be many more to come this week and next week..sweet dreams coldies!:cold-emoji::)

18_384_preciptype.png

18_384_ukthickness850.png

18_384_ukthickness.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

I laid a square egg when viewing the pub run! Really stung too.

Surely this run can't come off, it's bonkers!

I think the more significant development was the ECM getting on the same page.  Interested in the width of the cold pool at T192, much wider (more room for error) on ECM than GFS:

ECM0-192.GIF?19-0

gfs-1-192.png?18

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Spot the difference between the mean and the op at 138..

OP

OP.thumb.png.9ff3826a18ea67cd9c38c4bc66c32e79.png

Mean

MEAN.thumb.png.20a90bf09832e1258d837320c159efba.png

Every. Single. Ensemble member goes all in. Every. Single. One.

Panel.thumb.png.943ab4bb6e1b03bf20abf011d7cec118.png

I was just about to tuck into the ensembles.... You've saved me a journey, and wow. Just wow. It really is earth shatteringly beautiful. Thank you.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

There's no doubt about it. Imminent power failures for many and utter chaos will pursue if this 18z does happen. 

Whats even worse, people like myself have never experienced a true proper blizzard not seen since the likes of 87,91,63 or 78! 

I pray for everyone to stay safe and get stocked up with essentials. I'm trying not to get carried away here, but this really might be the big event that's been so long overdue. The even more frightening prospect, is that this thing is actually being upgraded run by run. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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