Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Thus- my alarm calls for planner-reorange, sync.

Truly @this stage the parameter alarms ARE NOISING!!

Weather of this severity in our country could cause a national grid failure. There will be excessive demand for electric heating and massive mechanical stresses in the lines.

I expect the METO will be pening the cold weather alert. We already have a level 1.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

[markw2680]

I’m absolutely gobsmacked ? speechless and in total shock. This will without doubt cause absolute gridlock....

BRING IT ON I SAY ?

[Stu_London]

Looks like the Atlantic will make inroads at +350 or so, But the GFS is known for being over progressive

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, AmershamMike said:

WTF??? does that mean?

?..

 

Ok mike in short-understandable terms,

Without exaggerate!

There should be some viable-planner structures put in place..due to transport' public service...general concern for health and safety!!!..

??

And that is all-jokes 'aside'..

Brutal is the byword here !!!

Edited February 19, 2018 by tight isobar

[Glenn Redwood]

Crap weather for the homeless and vulnerable though

[Deep Snow please]

Does anyone have an estimate of snow depth for different parts of the country on that run? Must be measuring in feet surely pretty much anywhere?

[Deep Snow please]

What a crap run, gets really mild towards the end.

[SNOW_TIGER]

Gulp ??

Just seen gfs!

 

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by SNOW_TIGER

[AmershamMike]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

?..

 

Ok mike in short-understandable terms,

Without exaggerate!

There should be some viable-planner structures put in place..due to transport' public service...general concern for health and safety!!!..

??

Ah!! Gotcha! Thanks for clarification - I was miles off!! ?

[Lampostwatcher]

if gfs 18z comes off 

there will be a new breed of kids who 

wil be l snow addicts 

like all the over 40's on this forum 

who were around in the snowy late 70,s 

and the 80,s 

gfs is just fantastic )?

[Catacol]

Just now, Deep Snow please said:

So going by this you've got blizzards nationwide over the course of a few days!

Channel low followed by polar low. Not to mention seriously cold temperatures. It can't get better than this, surely? 

Frankly - no it cant. Easterly convection followed by channel low followed by polar low is a combination Ali would have prized. I'm not sure it has ever happened (where's @Retron when you need him?) and perhaps this is the point at which we have to accept some downgrades will come. I just cant quite believe that such a spread is actually out there on the table.

It's a long way out in microforecasting terms. But if it comes off I think I wont see an event like this again in my lifetime - and the UK would grind to a halt as per 1963. It would perhaps not break cold records... but when you are looking at frontal and convective snow frankly it doesnt matter if its 1 degree, -2 degrees or -5 degrees. It's white, it will stick, and it doesnt look like it will melt any time soon after.

Bah. 5 more days of this is going to slaughter me. @snowking is right. Somehow we need a period of calm, but the modelling seems intent on maintaining high blood pressure for a week at least.

Tomorrow I'm off to buy beans, bread and chocolate. Could live for weeks on that.

 

[Stu_London]

3 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Looks like the Atlantic will make inroads at +350 or so, But the GFS is known for being over progressive

By 372 the cold and snow seems to be heading south again

[kold weather]

The run ends with a snow-rain event in the south and probably a foot of snowfall for the northand south of Scotland and a real risk of cold being re-introduced again!

[SMU]

10 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Is that Stansted In Kent Steve? 

Unsure 

heres the 87/91 clipping from TWO - see max temp bit

[steveinsussex]

In for the mother of all let downs

for once, please let it happen... please 

[radiohead]

You have to go back to 1991 to find comparable cold to that which is shown on the 18Z. There has never been something like this in the Internet era or era of modern computer models.

The 18Z GFS gets to within about 1 degree of that event.

1991:

18Z GFS

 

[GeordieX9v]

Stashing that run in a folder for safe keeping.

[ICE COLD]

I

3 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

What a crap run, gets really mild towards the end.

It's ok mate the colds coming back at day 16 ?

[lorenzo]

Don't you just hate it when the real cold is stuck out in low res at 384...

[Deep Snow please]

4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Frankly - no it cant. Easterly convection followed by channel low followed by polar low is a combination Ali would have prized. I'm not sure it has ever happened (where's @Retron when you need him?) and perhaps this is the point at which we have to accept some downgrades will come. I just cant quite believe that such a spread is actually out there on the table.

It's a long way out in microforecasting terms. But if it comes off I think I wont see an event like this again in my lifetime - and the UK would grind to a halt as per 1963. It would perhaps not break cold records... but when you are looking at frontal and convective snow frankly it doesnt matter if its 1 degree, -2 degrees or -5 degrees. It's white, it will stick, and it doesnt look like it will melt any time soon after.

Bah. 5 more days of this is going to slaughter me. @snowking is right. Somehow we need a period of calm, but the modelling seems intent on maintaining high blood pressure for a week at least.

Tomorrow I'm off to buy beans, bread and chocolate. Could live for weeks on that.

 

As my name suggests I'm a serious fan of snow and cold, but I think even I might baulk at the risk showing up on this run at T+372 that snow and cold may return from the north before the first lot - copious amounts - has melted. It's bonkers. We're getting dangerously far into "fantasy synoptics" land here. We have to prepare for downgrades now as you point out. 

 

Charts from the past week are going to be saved on memory sticks across the country right now but as you say Easterly Convection - Channel low - Polar low would be prized by any, and now there's a sort of northerly at the end! 

 

Wow. Simply. Wow.

Edited February 19, 2018 by Deep Snow please

[Duane S.]

5 hours ago, s4lancia said:

But at the same time, if it blows up a little less than the GFS is showing, it could be absolutely epic for parts of the south

Ah ha, a little bit like the 18z then...?

I simply have no superlatives that do today’s charts justice. None. Outrageous. Stunning. Outlandish. Phenomenal. Staggering. Bonkers don’t come close.

These are potentially once in a generation, maybe a lifetime charts being produced right here right now. Of course, it’s one thing to see them on a computer screen, another to get them to actually occur! With the Hemisphere about to go into reverse gear and the vortex kicked unceremoniously from its winter home, we have every chance this time. Every chance.

I’ve been all over this for a good two weeks now, convinced we were heading towards a cold spell. But I have to be honest, never did I truly expect to see charts quite as good as these being solidly and consistently show at such (relatively) short range.

Nothing is going to get in the way of the cold now, that is 100% set in stone. It’s all about just how cold, for how long and the where/when/how much of the white stuff.

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, lorenzo said:

Don't you just hate it when the real cold is stuck out in low res at 384...

And associated 2 foot of snow

[winterfreak]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Unsure 

heres the 87/91 clipping from TWO - see max temp bit

Well I lived in that tiny little village on top of the downs and witnessed January 1987 first hand... then February 1991 in the same location. I’ve  been in love with Easterlies ever since... 

[Derecho]

11 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Weather of this severity in our country could cause a national grid failure. There will be excessive demand for electric heating and massive mechanical stresses in the lines.

I expect the METO will be pening the cold weather alert. We already have a level 1.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

Yes, my friends and people who know me on here are aware I love cold and snow. It's seriously exciting to see extreme weather but if the GFS came off I would be genuinely worried.

Worried for the homeless, elderly, infrastructure and energy demand. I hope we are well prepared if such a scenario as extreme as this unfolds. I think its so anomalous it's low chance (getting the perfect Greenland high like that and record -NAO) but with the record SSW it can't be ruled out. Every run redifines what we call perfection at the moment in terms of cold weather synoptics.

Edited February 19, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[Mucka]

You gotta love the two day snow storm for Northern England as the sign off.

 

I can see people beginning to flag in their search for a superlative to describe the output so here isa  handy list to keep us going over the next few days

excellent, magnificent, wonderful, glorious, marvellous, brilliant, supreme, consummate, outstanding, prodigious, dazzling, remarkable, formidable, fine, choice, sterling, first-rate, first-class, of the first water, of the first order, of the highest order, premier, prime, unsurpassed, unequalled, unparalleled, unrivalled, unbeatable, peerless, matchless, singular, unique, transcendent, best, greatest, worthiest, pre-eminent, perfect, faultless, flawless; informalcrack, ace, stellar, wicked,