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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
8 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I've been telling my friends for weeks lol!

Will be less convective potential further north on this run. But the cold will be locked in so I wouldn't worry unduly.

Ed, why less convection on this run with colder uppers (gen question)?

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Channel low incoming? Seriously, somewhere could get absolutely buried here

gfsnh-0-204.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
1 minute ago, AmershamMike said:

Am I right in thinking that I don’t need to worry about the M4 issue with these charts?!

The M4 won’t exist. It will of disappeared under 2 feet of powder snow. Good riddance as well. Poxy road is the bain of our lives down south.

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Posted
  • Location: Central Beds
  • Location: Central Beds
8 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I've never wanted to hear from Ian Brown more than I do right now..

5a8b4f15d6b32_IANbrown.thumb.png.485faa053428788c8b7f3f539b4f3312.png

IF that cold pool was that cold, it'd be historic. Probably record breaking for the time of year?

Wouldn't really fancy being in Central Germany.

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

-15C isotherm over the south of England for over 30hrs and counting, bear in mind how exceptional it is to get it for 6hrs! Whatever happens on the rest of the run,that is totally crazy!

What would this mean for those under it though exactly?

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Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
2 minutes ago, snowice said:

It coming its coming :)sorry I am having a weather orgasm:cold:

A meteorgasm surely? :D

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

2010 - When the models grasped onto the cold spell they didn't let go and we just saw continuous updates until it hit us.

March 2013, similar though I seem to remember more drama. 

February 2018 - Absolute model chaos for a week and now all models are fairly consistent and just continuously updating..

ECM/UKMO/GFS all solid, the other models are barely being spoken about so that tells you everything. Maybe we wont see downgrades, maybe it'll follow the pattern.

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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
1 minute ago, Catacol said:

I think this run may be reflecting MetO thinking - the middle of the week is just one solid blizzard with frontal attacks SW to NE

gfs-0-198.png?18

I'm gobsmacked... and struggling to come to terms with multiple gobsmack moments over the last few days. When on earth are we actually going to see a downgrade???? 

Probably at T+48 as bloody usual ?

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Just now, khodds said:

What would this mean for those under it though exactly?

Put the heating on an extra hour

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Posted
  • Location: Amersham, Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Amersham, Buckinghamshire
Just now, Southender said:

The M4 won’t exist. It will of disappeared under 2 feet of powder snow. Good riddance as well. Poxy road is the bain of our lives down south.

Haha!!! ? it’ll be one long average speed zero rather than those damned 50s!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
19 minutes ago, Arrows1986 said:

Isnt it kfc? ? 

 

 

Yes you're right..my bad:D

Anyway, I'm running out of superlatives to describe the model output and tonights Gfs 18z is no exception..Big Freeze incoming!!..just hope we get out and enjoy it rather than sitting at our computers watching for when the breakdown is coming!:whistling::cold-emoji:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
3 minutes ago, supernova said:

Ed, why less convection on this run with colder uppers (gen question)?

Initially, because of higher pressure further north - though that risk diminishes quickly

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Now look to the north east

gfsnh-0-216.png?18

And check those uppers again.  This is very ECM like

gfsnh-1-216.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: blackburn
  • Weather Preferences: heavy snow/ heatwaves
  • Location: blackburn

 

4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

I think this run may be reflecting MetO thinking - the middle of the week is just one solid blizzard with frontal attacks SW to NE

gfs-0-198.png?18

I'm gobsmacked... and struggling to come to terms with multiple gobsmack moments over the last few days. When on earth are we actually going to see a downgrade???? 

Would that go north catacol or along the channel.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

hopefully fun and games from the S/SW

gfs-0-198.png?18

Oh the SW would get absolutely buried, Easterly gales, dangerous windchill.  Conservatively 10+ feet drifts, Cornwall, Devon totally cut off.  Best I get down there and find a good pub

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

I think this run may be reflecting MetO thinking - the middle of the week is just one solid blizzard with frontal attacks SW to NE

gfs-0-198.png?18

I'm gobsmacked... and struggling to come to terms with multiple gobsmack moments over the last few days. When on earth are we actually going to see a downgrade???? 

I'm exhausted, I've never seen anything like this in some 16 years of internet weather watching. I'm off to Amsterdam tomorrow and will be glad of the break to be honest to try and recover a bit!

I think we all have to accept that even what we are seeing here feels unlikely to transpire exactly as depicted by our 'stella' friend the 18z, but if anything even close to this comes off then the mood in here this time next week will be very buoyant.

Anyway, where is @lorenzo - isn't this the pub run you've been waiting for Tony?

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Lord give me strength..

We have a fixatinal 'mark' usually alingned for upper latts..

gfs-1-216.png

gfs-10-216.png

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
5 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

 

Would that go north catacol or along the channel.

Channel

 

 BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Just in case the 18Z wasn't delivering enough, it throws the perfect channel low into the mix too. You couldn't make up a better run

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