Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[seabreeze86]

My word just when you think it can't get any better it does, pure perfection 

[ICE COLD]

T159 is a beast 

[kold weather]

Great run on the 18z GFS. Only slight caveat is pressure is a touch higher than I'd like as the GFS really does blow up that upper high. SE should be fine, but once your getting 1035mbs and higher you are starting to limit convective potential.

Synoptics are outstanding however for sure and that really is the only thing I can nitpick on 

[Southender]

Right, the question is how long until we can break the silence and inform friends/family? I almost let slip today, but held my tongue absolutely convinced I would jinx it. 18z looking fine thus far. A proper Easterly feed, none of this via the med shenanigans.

[radiohead]

Absolutely perfect.

[bluearmy]

At day 6, gem is across the midlands, gfs is just off the east Anglian coast and the euros are around Denmark. That’s the envelope.  The ec spreads are about the same as this gfs op. The 12z gefs were with the gem at the extreme. 

[snowice]

Snow maker coming 6z stunning 

[Ice Day]

The whole of the UK under at least -12's by 162.  This is frankly unbelievable and another ruddy upgrade!!!!

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

T159 is a beast 

850's cold still go lower still! 

[bluearmy]

Just now, Southender said:

Right, the question is how long until we can break the silence and inform friends/family? I almost let slip today, but held my tongue absolutely convinced I would jinx it. 18z looking fine thus far. A proper Easterly feed, none of this via the med shenanigans.

No harm in telling people it will be freezing cold because it will - just don’t mention the s word! 

[Duncan McAlister]

What kind of temperatures are we realistically looking at here, in late February, off this astonishingly cold feed?

[radiohead]

-16 now reaching the coast...

 

And pushing in!

 

Coldest run yet from the GFS.

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by radiohead

[Banbury]

Stunning charts ......again

[Met4Cast]

Best run since the internet era begun? Yep, probably..

Utter, utter perfection. Heavy driving snow showers right across the country, Thames Streamers, hull streamers, all of the streamers!

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, Duncan McAlister said:

What kind of temperatures are we realistically looking at here, in late February, off this astonishingly cold feed?

Around these:

[Derecho]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

850's cold still go lower still! 

-25C uppers over central Germany 

Edit: Scaling error a pocket of sub -20C uppers, still remarkably frigid.

Edited February 19, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[ICE COLD]

Even more of a beast ??

[khodds]

Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Best run since the internet era begun? Yep, probably..

Utter, utter perfection. Heavy driving snow showers right across the country, Thames Streamers, hull streamers, all of the streamers!

Streamer party...?

or Party Streamer...?!

 

sorry.. couldn’t resist 

[Deep Snow please]

-16s creeping into Kent.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Outrageous

Kold has a point WRT upper HP but as the run goes on, due to the HP being cut off over Russia, we're likely to go the ECM Greenland HP route further on...

 

[Southender]

1 minute ago, Duncan McAlister said:

What kind of temperatures are we realistically looking at here, in late February, off this astonishingly cold feed?

Surface temps around 0c max daytime!! Lower with any snow pack and limited sun.

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

850's cold still go lower still! 

With the short sea track on this flow it’s going to be low !!!!!

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

No harm in telling people it will be freezing cold because it will - just don’t mention the s word! 

I've been telling my friends for weeks lol!

Will be less convective potential further north on this run. But the cold will be locked in so I wouldn't worry unduly.

[Ice Day]

SHUT THE FRONT DOOR  

That's -16s in now.

[Duncan McAlister]

1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

Around these:

Always think the GFS 2m tends to overdo the cold a bit though?