Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Jemma Croton]

WOAH, WOAH, WOAH GUYS.

I have NEVER seen a chart quite like this one... hold onto your pants... the Polar Vortex has only gone and turned FULL LOBSTER ??

[Derecho]

Lol why are people worrying so much about the GFS so far? It is almost exactly the same as the 12z

[tight isobar]

The beauty of this gfs 18z run..

Is the expansion of large reference siberian-arming... and the engagment of heights...and they are flowing..and glowing...

We are on the cusp here of something ...truly significant....

Edited February 19, 2018 by tight isobar

[kold weather]

18z is pretty close to the 12z, splitting hairs really out to 108hrs for sure. Only real difference is the LP inthe Atlantic is stronger on the 18z run, but not much change this far out.

Edited February 19, 2018 by kold weather

[chionomaniac]

7 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

Where that shortwave East of Iceland come from? ????hmmmmm

Just to say - that just like the split in 2010 - nothing crosses over from the Atlantic across the split in these types of scenarios. It cannot occur because of the vortex dynamics into the strat. Look east only until the Hudson Bay vortex is decimated too.

Edited February 19, 2018 by chionomaniac

[MattStoke]

High is a touch further north on the 18z, and the trough is a touch less elongated. That’s about it so far.

[snowice]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

18z is pretty close to the 12z, splitting hairs really out to 108hrs for sure. 

Its 100miles futher North than 12z all good! 

Edited February 19, 2018 by snowice

[SP1986]

one thing that may have gone un-noticed is how close the -5C isotherm gets to the Azores around Saturday due to a impressive northerly in the midAtlantic

[tight isobar]

The flow re-acting to momentum forces..

On a, - minor...yet major scale...

Any kink in direct of iso-flow...further aid's cold incur...

And that for -forth-coming suites..

Quite exeptional !!!

[bluearmy]

It’s a little slower which isn’t that big a surprise. Will be interesting to see how a slightly slower push of the cold interacts with the shortwave that gfs has been much keener on than the other modelling 

Infact, it look as small though this slightly slower onset makes for a cleaner flow of the cold 

[Cheshire Freeze]

18z GFS falling into line with other models as it moderates the depth of that LP coming into E Europe. That will probably have a bearing on the run further down the line (think Iberian low that pushed N on the 12z)

May also mean the core of the cold is a tad further S than the 12z but we'll see

[Captain Shortwave]

At day 5, the only difference really is far away to our north east, the cold pool isn't being squeezed as quickly compared to previous runs so more akin to the euros in that respect though landfall of the cold looks to be a similar time to previous GFS runs.

[Deep Snow please]

Come in a bit later, trending to ECM?

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

one thing that may have gone un-noticed is how close the -5C isotherm gets to the Azores around Saturday due to a impressive northerly in the midAtlantic

Talking of -5C isotherm, it reaches the east coast by 126hrs, so we are now almost within the 120hrs mark,probably another 24hrs of worrying watching before the confidence really starts to increase.

[SMU]

Perfection - better than 12z 

[Ice Day]

Looking really good at 132, slightly slower a bit more like the ECM, which is a good thing

 

[Arrows1986]

10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

McDonald's don't have any chickens to count at the moment

Anyway, the models are firming up on a freeze next week which could last well into march hopefully!..fingers crossed the 18z sends us to bed with smiles on our faces too.

Isnt it kfc? ? either way there will be downgrades and upgrades. This winter has been fascinating model watching. 

 

We'v done pretty well in Ipswich but it would be nice to get some decent snowfall and a 2012-13 event ?

[Matthew.]

The JMA doesn’t bear thinking about

[Cheshire Freeze]

Perfect alignment thus far

[snowice]

Think this is going to be as good as ecm! 

[radiohead]

Regards timing, we will likely see a merging of the GFS and ECM options.

[Derecho]

Looks like this GFS makes less of a deal out of the low pressure in Eastern Europe, only noticeable difference so far.

It may lead to the cold arriving ever so slightly later but it could mean the cold pool from Russia isn't cut off either.

Nothing to worry about so far!

[tight isobar]

Somebody asked earlier about 'possible upgrades'...given the current suites -formats...

Well..here it is !!!!

Edited February 19, 2018 by tight isobar

[Jason H]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Perfection - better than 12z 

Perfect Alignment!

[Weegaz]

Stunning charts.....rumour has it it’s to be that cold next week that chickens have already been seeing queuing at KFC for a go in the deep fat fryer to keep warm 

Going to enjoy the early part of this week with milder temps.....looks like we won’t see them again for a while, but need to get the logs stocked up to