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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: North East Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heatwaves & thunderstorms
  • Location: North East Essex
8 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Widespread -16 uppers on CFS with snow showers

image.png

image.png

If that was to happen, that will mean powder snow for southern England. Doesn't take as much precipitation to create dumping of snow from that. 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It appears to know convection rates in the North East as it shows several inches there, why is Kent different? 

Because it hasn't got the resolution to pick up the showers in the gap between the SE and Europe. The showers often blow up in the final 30 miles or so to the coast and the models very rarely pick that up until they are into the super high resolution range (aka 24hrs), and when they do they are not developing them nearly often enough. As a member who has been here for near 15 years, trust they ARE underdoing the snowfall totals for the SE. Indeed they are likely underdoing it for the NE as well.

Your not getting 50C lapse rates and cyclonic flow and not getting snow in the SE.thats absolutely nailed if the 12z suite come in, I'll stake all my wordly good on that ;)  

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

It appears to know convection rates in the North East as it shows several inches there, why is Kent different? 

With heights as low as what's being shown, coupled with how cold the uppers are, it'll be comparable to the lake effect snow seen almost every year over the Great Lakes. Would not rule out thundersnow and perhaps hours of unbroken snowfall, which will give significant accumulations. 1987 certainly saw parts of east Anglia and Kent cut off. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

What a trend, I'm getting goose bumps!!:D..the Ecm 12z  ensemble mean looks even more amazing than the 00z to me.. Roll on this weekend and especially next week..the freezer awaits!!:cold::cold-emoji:

ECMAVGEU12_120_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_144_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_168_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_192_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_216_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Our Japanese model again churns out a cracker. The JMA cannot be sneered at as Japan is just a small island like us so in theory, it could be better at micro detail than the other models.

This is a (another) belter and 7 days away (not my notoriously annoying 10 day)

JN168-21.GIF?19-12

With all the great charts from the models, there is something around Saturday which gives me a nervous feeling about next week, I`m not seasoned enough to explain but it is a hurdle that I mentally have to get over. Have a close look yourself, the transition from milder uppers to cold over the weekend, maybe nothing to worry about.

EDIT:

This point at the weekend, it`s the release of the lobe targeting the UK, GFS for example.

Saturday:

gfsnh-0-126.png?12?12

Release Sunday:

gfsnh-0-144.png?12?12

To me this is really important but again I`m not knowledgeable enough to know if this is a concern or not. Looking at these charts, it appears a crucial hurdle to me. Again might be nothing.

Edited by Stuie W
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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL

Looking at the charts it looks like a nice deep three day cold spell for southerners with heavy settling snow potential before milder air shoves it out the way from the south then more cold returning a few days later . So all in all good charts there for coldies such as myself .

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Posted
  • Location: Canvey Island
  • Location: Canvey Island

If the models are showing that the cold pool may begin to lap our shores on Sunday, I guess it will be beginning its migration across Europe in the not too distant future. It would be good to see what tools we have to monitor its progress and severity against what is being modelled. Those early signs may well give us an idea of what to expect.          

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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East

The 18z GFS infamous ‘ pub run’ usually comes up with a eye opener !

What on earth could it come up with tonight short of moving a tectonic plate and just positioning us within the arctic circle ⭕️ !

Can’t wait to see ! 

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
14 minutes ago, offerman said:

Looking at the charts it looks like a nice deep three day cold spell for southerners with heavy settling snow potential before milder air shoves it out the way from the south then more cold returning a few days later . So all in all good charts there for coldies such as myself .

I take it you only looked at the gfs then Offerman

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

The cut off of the easterly flow later next week that some have mentioned is just the signal to retrogress the high towards Greenland. An omega block forming. A pattern that would ensure a prolonged cold spell. The ECM in particular has been showing this on recent runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
3 minutes ago, Raythan said:

The 18z GFS infamous ‘ pub run’ usually comes up with a eye opener !

What on earth could it come up with tonight short of moving a tectonic plate and just positioning us within the arctic circle ⭕️ !

Can’t wait to see ! 

It could back track ?

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
20 minutes ago, offerman said:

Looking at the charts it looks like a nice deep three day cold spell for southerners with heavy settling snow potential before milder air shoves it out the way from the south then more cold returning a few days later . So all in all good charts there for coldies such as myself .

That’s based on GFS

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
4 minutes ago, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

If the models are showing that the cold pool may begin to lap our shores on Sunday, I guess it will be beginning its migration across Europe in the not too distant future. It would be good to see what tools we have to monitor its progress and severity against what is being modelled. Those early signs may well give us an idea of what to expect.          

Euro4 is ideal.You will have to click on relevant areas 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=3&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

i.e. Theta  850-1000 hph

Dewpoints etc

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Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
1 minute ago, shotski said:

The top part of that tweet is not factualy true. 

04288DCB-C42A-42E8-8EBF-B394CD47A355.png

Its on historical basis, I don't think Ian probably views snow charts (100+ Hours) anyway so he's probably thinking its showing a lot based off what that guy is saying. 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Note we are already getting some weak convective activity from the north sea, 850hpa temps are -5/6/7C AND we have a anti-cyclonic flow which won't be that unstable. Interesting for sure!

Nick, yeah those lapse rates are huge, fwiw a typical range to get lake effect precip is a 15C lapse rate between surface and 850hpa, so we are into that range.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Just to give an idea of the temperature differences between the North Sea and cold uppers early next week, SSTs around 6-7C with 500mb temps between -40 to -45C next Tuesday as that upper trough moves over - giving 45-50C temp contrast and between sea level and 850mb it's a 20C contrast- certainly will create steep lapse rates and aid in cloud depth to produce some heavy snow showers over the N Sea.

actual_SST.thumb.gif.62c1bc5422fd5b5287852d26094620c6.gifT500_192.thumb.png.8532698d17ad46ca16c4343a7a27ce14.pngT850_192.thumb.png.1329a28ba1019c63ae113d692a0ecf46.png

Obviously the air will be dry when it leaves the near continent, but will pick up moisture in the lower layers over the North Sea which will rise into shower clouds given the low-level instability of cold air over the relatively warmer sea. 

Perfect recipe for heavy powdery snow showers!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I think snow showers could be affecting eastern areas bordering the north sea as early as sunday and then becoming heavier and more widespread from early next week..fabulous model output for coldies,  especially the Ecm / Gem..although this freeze is still almost a week away it already looks set in stone, the only question is will it be mainly for the southern half of the uk or all of us..but I'm really hoping its going to be a nationwide event!..anyway, the freezer / beast from the east awaits:shok::cold-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Canvey Island
  • Location: Canvey Island
10 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Thanks for that will enjoy trying to find out how it works.

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Posted
  • Location: East Hanney
  • Weather Preferences: 24 degrees clear skies in summer, -24 degrees clear skies in winter
  • Location: East Hanney

Probably been posted before, but gives a great visual perspective.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=27.36,52.67,157

P

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
15 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Just to give an idea of the temperature differences between the North Sea and cold uppers early next week, SSTs around 6-7C with 500mb temps between -40 to -45C next Tuesday as that upper trough moves over - giving 45-50C temp contrast and between sea level and 850mb it's a 20C contrast- certainly will create steep lapse rates and aid in cloud depth to produce some heavy snow showers over the N Sea.

actual_SST.thumb.gif.62c1bc5422fd5b5287852d26094620c6.gifT500_192.thumb.png.8532698d17ad46ca16c4343a7a27ce14.pngT850_192.thumb.png.1329a28ba1019c63ae113d692a0ecf46.png

Obviously the air will be dry when it leaves the near continent, but will pick up moisture in the lower layers over the North Sea which will rise into shower clouds given the low-level instability of cold air over the relatively warmer sea. 

Veer/convection now worth a check.

Although as^above convective rates are inept-atm.

Although isobar switching via raw outs ..screaming potential via sea to land encounter.

Some huge dumps via compacting moisture convection highly likely!!

And the deeper the feed the deeper the accumulate...

A seriously awesome incursion about to bite!!!!

A usefull -set of tools as we walk into the spell..

Screenshot_2018-02-19-21-05-00.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions

Even western areas could get showers out of the increasing scenario next week...lots to be watching 

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Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)

Out of curiosity is there room for upgrades or are we pretty much at the point of pure perfection on current output?

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

The cold air arriving is not far of the range of some of the Hi Res models, the first being the NMM 10km with the European view.

Lets hope those delicious looking purple colours (sub -16c) reach our shores.

nmm-16-120-0.png?19-19

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