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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

An SBB run from the ECM.

Stunning beyond belief! :cold-emoji:

What would the 264 ecm chart look like nick ? Apparently at 240 the easterly is being cut off by the Greenland high ?

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

As easterlies to a northerly transition goes, without even a temporarily return to milder, this is almost perfect. Hemispheric view is outstanding.

62E66D38-A5A6-4F85-B486-A38DD5A27C51.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Just now, Raythan said:

What would the 264 ecm chart look like nick ? Apparently at 240 the easterly is being cut off by the Greenland high ?

We’ll have to settle for Northerly then :D

767C8357-48F0-4B7B-A1C3-FB74F4879746.thumb.png.eac5ddada5c4ccc8b8540e2c55b7eb4a.png

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

What can I say, there we were thinking the past few GFS runs has big deep cold pools and then came the ECM 12z, the newly crowned king of dramatic swings!

Just for good measure it has more realistic handling of LP to our S than GFS too.

There are no emoticons sufficient to summarise how extraordinary this run is.

(Usual caveats apply. Dammit there goes my sensible side!)

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Haha

take a look at the NH profile at day 10

it could actually get better with a cold front dropping through and the ‘warm sector ‘ supporting snowfall 

Yes Blue I wa just doing that, looks like the vortex would move down to Scandie or even the Uk if the ECM went out to 384 like the Gfs

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

ECM!!  500s and 850s 0h to 240h:

image.thumb.gif.abac0102e47de758bb3c51529f67071d.gif . image.thumb.gif.17668b39cda17ebead961dec6b6b8340.gif

Hope these are working...?

I would love to see the next few frames because early March is looking truly memorable for cold if these charts verify.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
7 minutes ago, Raythan said:

What would the 264 ecm chart look like nick ? Apparently at 240 the easterly is being cut off by the Greenland high ?

Extended cold patterns always see an end to the easterly within a few days because if you have a signal for a Greenland high the downstream effect is a trough dropping south into Scandi .

So that chunk of the PV will drop south at T264 hrs, and if it’s going to turn into a great spell you’ll have a rinse and repeat so another ne easterly flow after that.

We always have to guard against a more west based neg  NAO though.

As long as that doesn’t happen then the cold looks like lasting quite a while.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Haha

take a look at the NH profile at day 10

it could actually get better with a cold front dropping through and the ‘warm sector ‘ supporting snowfall 

Thats basically what happened in Dec 62 wasn't it, cold easterly then frontal system struggling to penertate southwards giving massive falls of snow. Its certainly a possiblity, though obviously to get TWO EXTREME solutions like that would probably elevate thisinto one of the most severe cold spells on the last 100 years...IF that were to happen. Its on the table...just about everything is on the table.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

ECM is so much better than 2013 January & March combined well IMBY speaking... I did not expect that it’s the best of the lot and there has been some stunning output across board. 

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Fair to middling set of GEFS @12z

image.thumb.png.d6af47b58cee43cc9b1a92db9fd9a3f9.png

BTW check out the T2M's

image.thumb.png.650f41e076e71fd4f24084e3e6a2c435.png

How about the -14C T2M for London !!!:laugh:

EDIT: PS looks like that -14C corresponds with a precipitation spike of 6cm (=60cm snow)!! Imagine the Chaos in London - go figure LOL :laugh:

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Just now, MattStoke said:

Is it safe to say the past few days have brought the best model runs in the internet age?

I've not been following weather that long but I can't imagine there have been better runs in that time.

Yeah I'm hard pressed to remember so many outlandish runs. There were some for Feb 05 (which downgraded but was still an ok cold spell), some for Feb 09 (which gave great fallsof snow, but wasn't as long lasting as forecasted) Jan 10 (which came off by in large) Dec 10 (once again came of, one of the coldest ever Decembers) and there have been a smattering in 2012 I think, but yeah these probably are the best I've seen...bar *maybe* THAT ECM run!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
4 minutes ago, yamkin said:

According to Liam Dutton, the beast from the east is about to be cut off by the Greenland High......What's he been drinking!!!!

As long as that happens after the deep cold has got in then it’s not a problem.

Its impossible to sustain the cold after the easterly without a blocking signal over Greenland .

See what happened to a few GFS runs with low pressure getting too far ne that’s the eventual outcome without the strong blocking signal to the n nw.

 

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19 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

Just as the deep cold from the continent sinks over France we now get a December 2010 style northerly to satisfy everyone....

Too cold for steamed hams....

I hope your prepared for an unforgettable cold spell! 

ECM100-192.GIF?19-0

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ipswich
  • Location: Ipswich

Hey. "New" to here. Used to be a member but took a few years out. Ive been reading this forum for the last year. 

Agter viewing the models, ecm is looking great. I know we'v had lots of disappointing events this winter but this one is looking awesome.

The blocking is solid, progression from east to west is consistent with the models so theres a good shot. 

Steve m, nick f...love reading your posts as ever, and ontop of your reassuing words Itv weather even suggested next weeks a corker..and tbh for them to mention 5 days in advance let alonr next week is v rare so good signs.

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Posted
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex

Question for the pros.

say if the current GFS and ECM are on the money, will snow events come up in short notice? I remember in 2010 when we had 20cms down here on the south coast and the forecasters only really knew about it at short notice.

 

can you see these type of scenario's happening with a set up like this? Sorry for lack of knowledge. 

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Is it safe to say the past few days have brought the best model runs in the internet age?

I've not been following weather that long but I can't imagine there have been better runs in that time.

Nah, following that polar vortex lobe diving south and collaspsing over the UK in 2010 is still my most memorable run. This one is not bad either though :D

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Posted
  • Location: Battersea, London
  • Location: Battersea, London

Excellent runs for those who like cold weather, GFS, UKMO,ICON,GEM,NAVGEM, and ECM, all on board for a period of very cod weather affecting much of Europe starting on Sunday through to the middle of next week, of course things can go wrong so,I will wait until, Thursday for confirmation before getting too excited. The ECM has even got upper of -28 in Russia,:yahoo:now I cant remember the last time when I saw uppers so cold in Europe, amazing if it happens of course, so late in the season. Gender Male, Location: Battersea, London.

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

Evening all, best 12z runs since I follow numerical outputs from cca 2009. I have gone through 12z ECMWF and zoomed in on my location in Wicklow hills, the coldest 850 temps that I found were -14! now we are talking continental cold that I am used from back home in Slovakia as a kid. all I say is bring it on :)

image.thumb.png.26cd5dd0a81a081cb4d5170722811861.png

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