Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Ice Day]

216.....

 

I'm about to have an attack of the vapours! Anyone got any smelling salts

[Purga]

Epically decent....

[Bartlett High]

We had blizzards with this .......will we see it again?

[tight isobar]

Upgrade....

*coughs*...

And hits the deck....

??

[craigore]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Ecm 216 OH MY BLOODY GOD ?

My new screen saver...

[cheese]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Is that -16 over England ??  Wow edit. No 

I'm also impressed by the cold pool over eastern Europe and Scandinavia. They would be absolutely frigid if that came to fruition. Highs below -10C for many I suspect.

Edited February 19, 2018 by cheese

[ICE COLD]

And ecm day 10 . Stunning run ?

Edited February 19, 2018 by ICE COLD

[winterof79]

So fast forward three months  and here I am sitting in a straight jacket at the Clinique De Mentally Derranged NW model watchers following the mother of all epic fails.......Not this time ECM

Edited February 19, 2018 by winterof79

[Frosty.]

Well it's sensational isn't it, the Ecm 12z would turn into an absolute snow fest with sub zero maxima..the stuff of dreams which could well be reality from early next week onwards!!

[Deep Snow please]

Bit warmer at t+240 though, so nothing firmed in yet for the proper cold.

 

[snowice]

2 minutes ago, craigore said:

My new screen saver...

The one thing we notice is that the GFS tends to over do the uppers, but when the ECM shows them you have to sit up and take notice

[Chesil View]

Well if this is the absolute stinker of an ECM Op that Blue army could smell coming I'd love to see the good one?

[radiohead]

My goodness, look to our north. I would love to see a 264 chart...

[kev238]

So there is now cross model agreement on a wall of cold heading west across Northern Europe 

I know it's still 120-144 hrs away but the building blocks are in place Much earlier than that 

Its going to get brutally cold I am sure of that - all these insane models plus a very snowy Met Office forecast 

details of course unclear but the 26th Feb- 1st march look pretty exciting right now !

 

 

 

[WalsallWeather123]

Retrogression to Greenland at T240 which brings North/North Easterly winds. Best possible scenario for prolonged cold.

[Derecho]

Just as the deep cold from the continent sinks over France we now get a December 2010 style northerly to satisfy everyone....

Too cold for steamed hams....

[karlos1983]

13 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

 

Now that's a Murr sausage if ever I've seen one! 

This is just fantastic. Best period of model watching during winter I've ever experienced. Even rivalling the other end of the spectrum for when a classic plume is modelled! 

 That’s more of a Stonker than a sausage!

The Arctic don’t like it up’em! 

Edited February 19, 2018 by karlos1983

[nick sussex]

And for good measure I get a blizzard down here and the strengthening flow caused by the low over Spain increases convection into the UK with high wind chills huge big snow showers. Blizzard conditions at times for eastern coastal counties.

The change here is a slight delay to the trough dropping into Scandi compared to the last ECM run.

Edited February 19, 2018 by nick sussex

[Paul Sherman]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

This is setting up for a terrible ec op - can smell it !

anyway - the inconsistency of the models continues (gfs apart). Ukmo similar to ec yesterday at day 6 to our east but not to our west. Note head scratching !

[Wilxy]

And 240h is trying a 2010 style setup simply the best run I have ever seen

[Purga]

LOL retrogression - Round 2 here we come

[nick sussex]

An SBB run from the ECM.

Stunning beyond belief! 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Well if this is the absolute stinker of an ECM Op that Blue army could smell coming I'd love to see the good one?

Haha

take a look at the NH profile at day 10

it could actually get better with a cold front dropping through and the ‘warm sector ‘ supporting snowfall 

[MattTarrant]

1 minute ago, clactongaz said:

Can we believe it...BBC look East are saying + 5 for the East on Monday..who is going to be right

 

GFS = No, ECM = No, JMA = No, GEM = No, Icon = No, UKMO = Very Unlikely

[karlos1983]

I need a lie down!!!  All ECM worries evaporated inside an hour. Fantastic stuff!