Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Summer Sun]

t168 here it comes

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, snowice said:

Hope bluearmy is feeling better about  ec much better than 00z high much more to NW cold should follow

I like the upper high appearing near svaalbard day 6 

[danm]

ECM 168h - cold pool seems further north than the 0z and hitting the UK! 

[Lampostwatcher]

GFS winter wonderland 

ukmo winter wonderland 

ecm winter wonder land 

roll on Sunday 

[karlos1983]

Much much better. Look at the cold pool on N hemisphere view and it’s clear!!

00z / 12z 

[SMU]

watching the pool of -28c air SE Scandi @168 - The wave associated with that is heading SE...

 

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, danm said:

ECM 168h - cold pool seems further north than the 0z and hitting the UK! 

Yes and cold pool on ecm looks a lot bigger Than the GFS ?

Edited February 19, 2018 by ICE COLD

[Snowman.]

ECM would also stand a better chance of keeping the cold flow in longer due to the SE of the high not cutting off the flow.

[tight isobar]

Oooooshhh!!!

Ecm onboard...

Heights-inflow-alignment...

All CORRECTED!!!

[snowking]

Only 1 run with more twists and turns to come I'm sure so we should keep this in perspective, but I must confess that when you compare things to yesterday's 12z:

I couldn't help but give out just a little 

[Building Blocks]

We may have to wait a bit longer on the ECM than the GFS for the real cold to set in but in reality it is actually much better synoptically speaking for a longer cold spell

[Purga]

MUCH better orientation of the High on the 12z

0z

12z

Edited February 19, 2018 by Purga

[kev238]

The ECM has a cold pool out towards Russia with -28 air within it !

[Ice Day]

Here's the uppers at 144 and 168....if you toggle between the 2 it looks like a direct UK hit.  192 will hopefully confirm it but could be a nationwide event again

 

...Oh, and there's -12 uppers across much of the country 

[ICE COLD]

ECM 192 is bloody epic ??

[danm]

May not be comparing the right periods here but look at the heights across northern Scandi on the 12z at 168 vs the 192 on the 0z:

 

[kold weather]

Amazing 12z ECM for sure!! May even give the 12z GFS a run for its money. Getting mighty close now to the time where this becomes odds on, as the building blocks are NOW starting to appear in real time. I can't see anyway we won't get a decent cold spell now, its still a question whether or not we get a legendary cold shot, but the 12z models have been outstanding for that!

[The Enigma]

ECM is turning into an epic,  takes a bit longer but is a more locked in cold spell.  This time tomorrow we should be staring down the barrel of the best easterly in decades... 

[Summer Sun]

ECM much better for the cold air

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192 aligning towards direct hit

[radiohead]

ECM moving in the right direction now, though still slower than the GFS. Would like to see one more adjustment further north but I'm certainly not going to complain about this.

[tight isobar]

An, increadible snapshot...

We walk deeper into the freezer!!!!

Edited February 19, 2018 by tight isobar

[Frosty.]

I'm delighted to see the North joins in the fun on the Ecm 12z, the 00z was a southern event only but hope this is the way forward!!..nationwide freeze with snow for all!❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

[ZK099]

GFS- Cold and very snowy

UKMO- Cold and snowy

GEM/ICON/JMA- Cold, snowy easterlies

ECM- Cold, undoubtedly snowy and also the potential for fantastic longevity

We are a go! 

[Ice Day]

WHAT THE ACTUAL 'FLIP'.  This could be the best run ever coming up....it's putting the GFS in the shade.