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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

ECM 120hrs

ECH1-120.GIF?19-0

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

T120.....beautiful, the surge is coming  Can’t post charts

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

ECM has cold pool further north.That'll do for me. SOD cluster 1

 

Screenshot_20180219-182355.png

Screenshot_20180219-182408.png

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

T120.....beautiful, the surge is coming  Can’t post charts

 

BFTP

Hope bluearmy is feeling better about  ec much better than 00z high much more to NW cold should follow:)

Edited by snowice
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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

850 temps at 120hrs on the ECM:

ECM0-120.GIF?19-0

Huge cold pool moving west out of Russia. 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Comparing todays day 6 to yesterdays day 7

ECM1-144.GIF?19-0   ECM1-168.GIF

The high looks to be a little further north compared to yesterday so hopefully the cold air should hit further north on this run.

This run is pretty close to the UKMO, so it will interesting to see how cold it gets in week 2.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Gets there a bit late but it's there;

 

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

That's 00z

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Everyone come out from behind the sofa . We are rolling ?

IMG_1622.PNG

Just needed that extra 5mb pumping in

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

144 on the ECM. Cold pool about a day behind the GFS but it’s on its way:

ECM0-144.GIF?19-0

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Incoming..ec-wakes up...

And oddly could end up more synopticaly upgraded...than the gfs!!!.

Classic height rotate and in-draw!

ECM1-144.gif

ECM1-144.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The coldest GFS ensemble ( For east kent ) is -18.8c @T183 & 186... ( this is the 180 chart )

Thats only 1c less than 12 1987....

the max that day was -7c in the SE

FBDD62CA-5AFC-4555-B50B-843555CE8285.thumb.png.268c248f2e0f393af446ba368de6308f.png

 

Take a look at the 12z GFS and the week before the 87 outbreak. SO similar it is unreal!

Anyway the 12z ECM looking good!! A notch down from the 12z GFS/GEM but its still outstanding.

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Comparitively a better run 12z ECM against 0z

12z

image.thumb.png.8626b169e9a39c34bab0d40daf4c2ad9.png

0z

image.thumb.png.2ffd81a109f8cef9d088e15e21178c96.png

 

image.png

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

Somethings got to give. Pretty much every GFS member is going for 850 temps to dive during Sunday, ECM still has us in the middle of the warm air advection.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
13 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Listed on Meteociel via the Tableaux GEFS.

That Tableaux GEFS  is really useful, thanks. I wish there were more tabular data sources available for other things. 

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

When you think about a locked in Barlette......

this chart is epic

IMG_3356.thumb.PNG.264bc24a19d296465f4351c736c0f20b.PNG

Theres levels to the love :0 

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