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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

A picture paints a thousand words...

Stark contrast...and trending is steadfast...

#decline...

MT8_London_ens.png

I haven’t been a member on here to long I’ve never seen that  very cold South East England..:cold::cold::cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

There’s been a fair few ‘crucial’ runs chucked about this winter but this ECM run I think it is crucial for it to climb on aboard with every other model we’d be good to go I’d say. 

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

I haven’t been a member on here to long I’ve never seen that  very cold South East England..:cold::cold::cold:

The op is quite a warm outlier after the 1st. Many of the runs keep the cold going much longer. The op has most likely overblown that low and milder air at T200

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
5 minutes ago, terryall said:

345 hearts pumping away in anticipation.....

3450 finger nails being chewed nervously..stunning 12z runs so far..hoping the Ecm makes it a full house!:D:cold:..nationwide freeze please Ecm!!:D

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Just now, Steve Murr said:

now look at that clustering at day 10/11/12 - Thats a good grouping indicating the iberian low slides east...

Cheers steve..

The inflow could even upgrade here !!!

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

now look at that clustering at day 10/11/12 - Thats a good grouping indicating the iberian low slides east...

Yes and its the only cluster there. The other members all go their own way really, but that is quite a tight group staying at -10.

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

Bit of a westwards shift from yesterdays 12z at 72h

 

Today                                                   Yesterday

ECMOPEU12_72_1.pngECMAVGEU12_96_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

The coldest GFS ensemble ( For east kent ) is -18.8c @T183 & 186... ( this is the 180 chart )

Thats only 1c less than 1987....

FBDD62CA-5AFC-4555-B50B-843555CE8285.thumb.png.268c248f2e0f393af446ba368de6308f.png

 

How can you tell that?

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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
8 minutes ago, Retron said:

Here's a cropped version of the 12z GEFS for London. These are the coldest ensembles I've ever seen for London, and that's going back to the late 90s. Sadly I didn't know about ensembles in 1997, as I suspect that was the last time we saw such cold values.

 

temps.gif

Yes I remember your ensemble watch back in the day Darren except then you used to only measure the number of ensembles hitting a paltry -10!

A bit tame for this cold spell!  :D

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

First impressions since back from work.....

those GEFS are stunning.

nuff said"

(now I can catch up on today's drama)

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions

And now on BBC One, it’s time for an unmissable ECMenders!

DUFF DUFF DUFF DUFF DUFF DUFF DUFF DUF DUFF DUFF

I am so impressed by the remarkable accuracy of the GFS runs at the moment! I’m just interested to see what sways it! 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Re GFS look at a LP develop around the Black Sea and move north.  That squeezes and props the HP and helps eject (lOops, nearly wrote something else a bit longer) the deep cold West.  

All I can say is I’ve waited 31 years for Synoptics like these...yes we’ve had some crackers BUT this incoming is what you call an EASTERLY!

Come ECM.....you know you want to

BFTP

 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight

Sure has been an incredibly interesting past few days of Model watching, i'm not too worried about the ECM at the minute but still worth keeping an eye on just in case it doesn't become a little bit of a trend, even though its still very very cold on there too. Aside from that another amazing GFS run, GEM and UKMO Doesn't look too shabby at 144. 

I'm also keeping a little eye on Thursday/Friday, I wouldn't be surprised  of a  risk of some light flurries

Got everything crossed

ECM 12z incoming :) 

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

This looks good,Atlantic low is miles further south than the 00z.

 

ECMOPEU12_96_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
11 minutes ago, SN0W SN0W SN0W said:

Remember when we had a 25c divergence at day 7, and now we have this

graphe3_1000_319_138___.gif

I haven't seen anything packed in that the tightly since the 80s

During a regular cold spell we would be questioning whether that initial dip down to -5 would be cold enough for a little wintriness thinking that is as cold as it gets where as here that dip is the 'mild' holding pattern before the real cold enters the stage!  :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

This looks good,Atlantic low is miles further south than the 00z.

 

ECMOPEU12_96_1.png

That is a great chart....look at that 1040 arctic HP waiting to eject SW 

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Pressure-signals looking good.. as the flow looks to make aim..

Some minor blips around base norway/sweden...but not fraught...

And the easterly is sharpening now via ecm...

ECM1-96.gif

ECM4-96.gif

Screenshot_2018-02-19-18-17-21.png

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