Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[tight isobar]

Very early into the run...but im flagging it!!!

Heres the immediate focus...

 

[Weathizard]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think the holy grail of cold pool direct hit (with likely snowy consequences) is driving the atmosphere in here 

To be fair, it's hard not to chase the holy grail given the background signals and sypnotics on offer and given we have actually consistently seen 'holy grail' like charts over the last couple of days can make the ECM with high pressure mostly in charge look mildly underwhelming.

[Frosty.]

Fabulous Ecm 00z ens mean for next week, especially further south with deep cold being exacerbated by the Easterly winds..then towards the end, heights get sucked NW (retrogression) and the North then joins in with a reload from the N / NE..much like the earlier op!

Edited February 19, 2018 by Frosty.

[SMU]

morning -

Once again the IKON / ECM pairing are a little out of kilter with the UKMO / GFS etc- 

Every time this has happened in the last week or so following this evolution - the ECM / IKON have tracked back to the more amplified solution-

06z IKON looks a lot better - with my limited viewing time today

[SLEETY]

Icon looks good at 120 with the bitter cold waiting in the wings ,and better than ecm at same timeframe

[Sky Full]

No matter how pointless the exercise is, I do like to try and find correlations between current charts and historical charts.  It's just possible that we might be able to judge what the conditions might be like if the Synoptics are similar.  Take these charts from March 15th 1979, which brought a blizzard to northern UK:

   

Compare these to the GFS predictions for 1st March 2018:

   

Although these charts are not exactly the same, they are similar enough to draw comparisons, I think?  The prospective cold conditions in the 2018 charts are definitely more extreme than the 1979 ones, so perhaps the weather we can expect might be more extreme as well?  Obviously the charts will change over the next 10 days but even a watered down version of today's GFS forecast could bring some extraordinary weather to some, especially so for the time of year.  We must continue to be patient for the time being but the reality might yet outdo all our expectations....

[Weathizard]

GFS still far better than the ecm at t96

[SLEETY]

Think this gfs run is going to amazingly wintry looking at it so far not going towards ECM at all

[Weathizard]

Very consistent from the GFS, again nothing like the ECM. 0z and 6z compared

 

If anything the 6z looks marginally better

Edited February 19, 2018 by Weathizard

[seabreeze86]

4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Think this gfs run is going to amazingly wintry looking at it so far not going towards ECM at all

Yeah sleety much better than the ECM and if anything the cold pool is slightly further north not south so no corrections to the ECM on this run,  doesn't mean it's right of course

[Nick F]

Could be some snow flurries for eastern areas on Friday, as the increasingly cold and dry easterly wind picks up moisture over the North Sea.

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by Nick F

[SLEETY]

Just look at that cold pool over Eastern Europe ,going to be some serious weather problems over there,and severely cold for late winter

T

[tight isobar]

Decent heights alignment..

And note...the iberian feature...

Holding but allowing a more open door to the impending flow...

Another cracking run awaits.. gfs 6z..

Edited February 19, 2018 by tight isobar

[radiohead]

So far, so good. If anything, the cold looks like it might arrive a little earlier on this run.

[SLEETY]

Looks like a direct hit from that frigid air mass is incoming I think

[Singularity]

16 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

GFS still far better than the ecm at t96

ECM cutting of LP by Azores much more readily, allowing polar jet to straighten up a bit, applying more force on the blocking high which gets shunted SE a little. That small shift sends the deep cold on a longer and slower journey.

This crucial difference being so soon in time explains the respective ensemble suites also leaning strongly toward the op runs. EPS seemingly less so than GFS though given several clusters differing from ECM.

It also makes it anyone’s guess which is more likely to be correct!

 

What the.. somehow the attachments from the post below have uploaded themselves to my post?!

Edited February 19, 2018 by Singularity

[Weathizard]

GFS still looks stonking at day 6..

[Man With Beard]

Main cold pool is in at T144 #GFS06Z

[SMU]

I honestly believe we are close to the final solution now... so glad Im not going to miss it !

 

[bobbydog]

-12 uppers in by sunday morning

[SLEETY]

Going the way of the gem I think now the most amazing run I,ever ever seen .

[frosty ground]

1055 Pressure over Scandi..... that in itself is amazing.

[tight isobar]

Ooosh...

In she comes...and gfs is clean-steady and evolutionary feasible....

Cracking!!!

[Deep Snow please]

Someones knocking on the door, someones ringing the bell. T+141

Edited February 19, 2018 by Deep Snow please

[Nick F]

COBRA run from GFS, -15C T850 line making landfall